Texas Winter 2022-2023

[Iceresistance]

Surprised that no one has done this yet, but I’ll start it now in August.

I’m personally thinking that there is a higher than normal risk of a very mild winter for the Southern Plains, despite the Farmers almanac saying a incredibly nasty winter is possible for the Central and parts of the Southern Plains.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.

[TXdaddy217]

Thank you for starting this thread. I am so done with 100 degree days. Hopefully we can all get a little something of winter joy throughout the state.

[Iceresistance]

Thank you for starting this thread. I am so done with 100 degree days. Hopefully we can all get a little something of winter joy throughout the state.

I know! I am too! But perhaps we need to wait a few more months before this can get going.

[Itryatgolf]

Last winter we was fortunate to have a east based niña and that allowed for a better pacific than anticipated. This winter may not be as fortunate. However, I've heard that a +qbo correlates with higher sunspot activity, hence usually leading to more blocking and -qbo correlates with lower sunspot activity. I'm thinking December may be our best opportunity at winter weather. A little different than last winter

[Itryatgolf]

Ben knoll, who is supposed to be well respected in the weather community, says the euro and ukmet seasonal is harping on -nao for early half of winter. That is the August update. We don't have triple niñas very often so it's difficult to really know how they pan out.

[Itryatgolf]

Surprised that no one has done this yet, but I’ll start it now in August.

I’m personally thinking that there is a higher than normal risk of a very mild winter for the Southern Plains, despite the Farmers almanac saying a incredibly nasty winter is possible for the Central and parts of the Southern Plains.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.

Don't forget the old farmers almanac, which is even snowier lol

[Iceresistance]

Surprised that no one has done this yet, but I’ll start it now in August.

I’m personally thinking that there is a higher than normal risk of a very mild winter for the Southern Plains, despite the Farmers almanac saying a incredibly nasty winter is possible for the Central and parts of the Southern Plains.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.

Don't forget the old farmers almanac, which is even snowier lol

Oh goodness! It's either a huge verification or bust!

Ben knoll, who is supposed to be well respected in the weather community, says the euro and ukmet seasonal is harping on -nao for early half of winter. That is the August update. We don't have triple niñas very often so it's difficult to really know how they pan out.

BenNollWeather (AKA, the CEO of Snow) also has this.

 https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1558845907327561730

[Cpv17]

Might be a front loaded winter. December and January look good for now.

[Yukon Cornelius]

The other almanac:

[Iceresistance]

WPC is calling for snow in the mountains of Colorado and New Mexico in the next few days.

[Ntxw]

La Nina winter climatology for most of Texas and Southern Plains - warmer than average and drier. That's the basics.

Flip side of the coin is not as simple. Many other factors at play. If you want a great winter then the tropics, mid latitudes, and arctic patterns need to align. 2/3 gets a pretty good winter. 1/3 is workable. As with the other seasons, whatever the commonality with the prior 2 Ninas likely gets extended. The trend is increasingly dry and warmth for the 3 year trends. The theme is similar, if we want a different outcome something has to change.

North America to date is running behind schedule with snow cover.

[Iceresistance]

La Nina winter climatology for most of Texas and Southern Plains - warmer than average and drier. That's the basics.

Flip side of the coin is not as simple. Many other factors at play. If you want a great winter then the tropics, mid latitudes, and arctic patterns need to align. 2/3 gets a pretty good winter. 1/3 is workable. As with the other seasons, whatever the commonality with the prior 2 Ninas likely gets extended. The trend is increasingly dry and warmth for the 3 year trends. The theme is similar, if we want a different outcome something has to change.

North America to date is running behind schedule with snow cover.

But with all of the troughing that the models have been showing in October for quite some time, this winter is anyone's guess because the Subtropics are way above average and could allow stronger storms in the area with a higher-than-normal risk of an extremely fierce bomb cyclone.

All it takes is one storm to change the snow cover average. And I've noticed that all of the brutal winters coincided with a very active Atlantic Hurricane Season.

[Ntxw]

La Nina winter climatology for most of Texas and Southern Plains - warmer than average and drier. That's the basics.

Flip side of the coin is not as simple. Many other factors at play. If you want a great winter then the tropics, mid latitudes, and arctic patterns need to align. 2/3 gets a pretty good winter. 1/3 is workable. As with the other seasons, whatever the commonality with the prior 2 Ninas likely gets extended. The trend is increasingly dry and warmth for the 3 year trends. The theme is similar, if we want a different outcome something has to change.

North America to date is running behind schedule with snow cover.

But with all of the troughing that the models have been showing in October for quite some time, this winter is anyone's guess because the Subtropics are way above average and could allow stronger storms in the area with a higher-than-normal risk of an extremely fierce bomb cyclone.

All it takes is one storm to change the snow cover average. And I've noticed that all of the brutal winters coincided with a very active Atlantic Hurricane Season.

Ensembles are showing extensive ridging across North America.

[Iceresistance]

La Nina winter climatology for most of Texas and Southern Plains - warmer than average and drier. That's the basics.

Flip side of the coin is not as simple. Many other factors at play. If you want a great winter then the tropics, mid latitudes, and arctic patterns need to align. 2/3 gets a pretty good winter. 1/3 is workable. As with the other seasons, whatever the commonality with the prior 2 Ninas likely gets extended. The trend is increasingly dry and warmth for the 3 year trends. The theme is similar, if we want a different outcome something has to change.

North America to date is running behind schedule with snow cover.

But with all of the troughing that the models have been showing in October for quite some time, this winter is anyone's guess because the Subtropics are way above average and could allow stronger storms in the area with a higher-than-normal risk of an extremely fierce bomb cyclone.

All it takes is one storm to change the snow cover average. And I've noticed that all of the brutal winters coincided with a very active Atlantic Hurricane Season.

Ensembles are showing extensive ridging across North America.

Yeah, the AO is going to be positive for some time. I don't expect any frost or freeze until maybe Late October into November.

[Iceresistance]

I'm late for the news, but the Polar Vortex has showed up, Severe Weather EU said the PV started to show itself in Mid-September

[Iceresistance]

Mostly for the New England area, but something to consider for here.

 https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1576939628887773186

[Iceresistance]

Maybe an even crazier winter compared to last year?

 https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1577746350451486721

[Itryatgolf]

Maybe an even crazier winter compared to last year?

https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1577746350451486721?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Etweet

I believe after last December we got more of a poleward Aleutian ridge, which allowed for cold air east of the rockies. The east based niña helped alot imo. If we get more ridging over Alaska and western Canada, we will probably get really cold at times. 3 year niñas are tricky. Not too many analogs to go by. I do feel like February will be alot warmer than previous ones imo.

[Iceresistance]

Maybe an even crazier winter compared to last year?

https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1577746350451486721?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Etweet

I believe after last December we got more of a poleward Aleutian ridge, which allowed for cold air east of the rockies. The east based niña helped alot imo. If we get more ridging over Alaska and western Canada, we will probably get really cold at times. 3 year niñas are tricky. Not too many analogs to go by. I do feel like February will be alot warmer than previous ones imo.

I don't think that will be the case, February has been the new December/January in the past few winters.

[Iceresistance]

It's not much here, but Winter is coming!

 https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1579456719431663616