Teban54 wrote:skyline385 wrote:I also posted it in the twitter thread about how June and July have much higher correlation and less RMS error which matches Andy’s theory about August forecasts being prone to intraseasonal variations.
https://twitter.com/osuwxguy/status/1555561692993552385
But as seen from the thread, June and July ACE forecasts for 2022 are also just as aggressive. And given the suppressed base state for much of July and early August, so even if the August forecast was affected by the initialization, you would expect it to be bearish, not bullish.
July forecast was pretty realistic and i think most agree on a range of 140-160 for this season. The June forecast was ridiculous that’s for sure.
Something else to note and this is very important, the SEAS5 model was just tuned last year to account for it underperforming in the previous years. So there is a chance it is overdoing the numbers because this is its first year after the adjustment.
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