2021 JTWC Best Track

[NotoSans]

JTWC best track for the year 2021 has just been published. Data can be accessed below:

WPAC: https://www.metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/product ... wp2021.zip
NIO: https://www.metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/product ... io2021.zip
SHEM: https://www.metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/product ... sh2021.zip

Highlights for the WPAC:
 https://twitter.com/squirtleinhk/status/1555836567998328834

[Hayabusa]

Surigae got upgrade to 170 knots on the month of April and Rai got upgraded to 150 knots. There should be a dedicated discussion for Surigae in the ATCR.
The WPAC is on a streak of producing 165+ knots TCs since 2019. Wonder if 2022 would continue or break it.

[aspen]

Surigae got upgrade to 170 knots on the month of April and Rai got upgraded to 150 knots. There should be a dedicated discussion for Surigae in the ATCR.
The WPAC is on a streak of producing 165+ knots TCs since 2019. Wonder if 2022 would continue or break it.

Since this year is behaving similar to 1998 and that season managed to produce Zeb, it’s possible 2022 has an extremely strong late-season STY near the Philippines like in other strong Nina years.

I can’t open the BT links for some reason. Were Surigae and Rai’s pressures adjusted too?

[Hayabusa]

Surigae got upgrade to 170 knots on the month of April and Rai got upgraded to 150 knots. There should be a dedicated discussion for Surigae in the ATCR.
The WPAC is on a streak of producing 165+ knots TCs since 2019. Wonder if 2022 would continue or break it.

Since this year is behaving similar to 1998 and that season managed to produce Zeb, it’s possible 2022 has an extremely strong late-season STY near the Philippines like in other strong Nina years.

I can’t open the BT links for some reason. Were Surigae and Rai’s pressures adjusted too?

Yes originally 920 mb for Rai, while 888 mb for Surigae

WP, 28, 2021121600, , BEST, 0, 97N, 1276E, 150, 908, ST, 34, NEQ, 160, 110, 100, 150, 1007, 250, 7, 0, 10, W, 0, , 0, 0, RAI, D,
WP, 28, 2021121600, , BEST, 0, 97N, 1276E, 150, 908, ST, 50, NEQ, 91, 60, 54, 85, 1007, 250, 7, 0, 10, W, 0, , 0, 0, RAI, D,
WP, 28, 2021121600, , BEST, 0, 97N, 1276E, 150, 908, ST, 64, NEQ, 50, 32, 29, 46, 1007, 250, 7, 0, 10, W, 0, , 0, 0, RAI, D,

WP, 02, 2021041712, , BEST, 0, 120N, 1292E, 170, 882, ST, 34, NEQ, 185, 175, 140, 150, 1007, 300, 5, 0, 10, W, 0, , 0, 0, SURIGAE, D,
WP, 02, 2021041712, , BEST, 0, 120N, 1292E, 170, 882, ST, 50, NEQ, 108, 102, 80, 86, 1007, 300, 5, 0, 10, W, 0, , 0, 0, SURIGAE, D,
WP, 02, 2021041712, , BEST, 0, 120N, 1292E, 170, 882, ST, 64, NEQ, 59, 56, 44, 47, 1007, 300, 5, 0, 10, W, 0, , 0, 0, SURIGAE, D,

[zzh]

They are calling this 170kt lol

[MHC Tracking]

Made a twitter thread detailing all significant changes
 https://twitter.com/MhcTracking/status/1555915855359262720

[zzh]

Surigae is the strongest typhoon in WPAC according to JTWC. Surpassing Haiyan(170/895), Meranti(170/895), Goni(170/884).
What a joke

[aspen]

Surigae is the strongest typhoon in WPAC according to JTWC. Surpassing Haiyan(170/895), Meranti(170/895), Goni(170/884).
What a joke

Surigae was a better T#8.0 than Goni because its eye was cleared all the way and pretty warm too. And just because an outer eyewall eventually developed doesn’t mean that Surigae never could have achieved winds that high just a little earlier, before those outer bands formed a secondary eyewall.

Also the 895mb for Haiyan is the JMA’s estimate. They only go with multiples of 5 and often run 10-20+ mbar higher than the JTWC’s estimates for the same storm. I vastly prefer the JTWC estimates because they’re more precise and close to what Dvorak yields.

[zzh]

Surigae is the strongest typhoon in WPAC according to JTWC. Surpassing Haiyan(170/895), Meranti(170/895), Goni(170/884).
What a joke

Surigae was a better T#8.0 than Goni because its eye was cleared all the way and pretty warm too. And just because an outer eyewall eventually developed doesn’t mean that Surigae never could have achieved winds that high just a little earlier, before those outer bands formed a secondary eyewall.

Also the 895mb for Haiyan is the JMA’s estimate. They only go with multiples of 5 and often run 10-20+ mbar higher than the JTWC’s estimates for the same storm. I vastly prefer the JTWC estimates because they’re more precise and close to what Dvorak yields.

1. There is no such thing as "better T8.0" in Dvorak. About the eye, when Surigae cleared its eye it was probably ERCing lol.
2. TC intensity is more than just looking at cloudtops and eyetemp. I suggest you take a look at midlevel structure.

Goni's structure is FAR better than Surigae's double eyewall.
3. JTWC give Haiyan 895mb.

WP, 31, 2013110712, , BEST, 0, 102N, 1290E, 170, 895, ST, 34, NEQ, 130, 100, 115, 130, 1003, 200, 17, 0, 25, W, 0, , 0, 0, HAIYAN, D,

[Kingarabian]

Simply no way Surigae was stronger than Haiyan or Goni. But as proven with Dorian 2019, sometimes looks can be deceiving.

[Foxfires]

What is happening..
I feel like looking at threads and storms from only a few years ago I can see people dissing the JTWC for going the conservative route, at least for stronger systems, and the only time I can recall from the top of my head where people said they were going too high was Meranti, and a couple years later, said people basically ended up giving it a higher estimate than the JTWC did (because on an unverified measurement on Itbayat). So I have no idea what's going on and why they're going the.. uh what do I call it.. generous route lately.

[InfernoFlameCat]

Surigae was larger than Goni. Also, Surigae was more impressive IMO. Idk but I think Surigae was more intense.

[InfernoFlameCat]

Goni did have a much more impressive structure according to microwave imagery.