Tropical Wave south of the Cabo Verde Islands (Is Invest 97L)

[aspen]

I think the cause for future Danielle’s weakening in the middle Atlantic is due to a TUTT or similar structure. It’s at least a week out, so the position and strength of that shear barrier could change quite a lot. Danielle’s best opportunity to intensify will be in its early few days, when it remains over 27-28C waters while going due west at a very low latitude.

[cycloneye]

Looks like a circle soon for the wave exiting Africa soon. GFS has this developing within 72 hours.

It has been circled since 2 AM.

[cycloneye]

[MGC]

NHC is getting bullish. Looks like the tropics are waking up right on schedule....MGC

[gatorcane]

Making the splash. Saved loop:

[Nimbus]

All the waves that came off Africa earlier dried up traveling west within 20 degrees.
Anchoring Pt 59 off Panama isn't likely to yield much either.

[skyline385]

18Z EURO much weaker so far.

[InfernoFlameCat]

Looks like a circle soon for the wave exiting Africa soon. GFS has this developing within 72 hours.

It has been circled since 2 AM.

I think he means a tropical depression circle.

[DorkyMcDorkface]

Now that the wave is emerging we can try to compare and contrast what the GFS and Euro have roughly around this time. How much convective activity persists will determine whether or not this thing could spin up as quickly as the GFS or take its time like the Euro. Presently it appears the GFS has the edge - we'll see how things progress into the morning.



(I apologize for the lack of zoom on the Euro)

[AtlanticWind]

Could be an Invest soon I would think.

[cycloneye]

The site Weathernerds has a floater for this wave.

[skyline385]

Almost nothing on EPS that would be quiet a big bust if it verified.

[MHC Tracking]

Almost nothing on EPS that would be quiet a big bust if it verifiedhttps://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20220807/19d38f29e9139b7be58a448e723d6775.jpg

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Not sure what to trust here, GFS has been its typical bullish self with this, yet EPS has now strayed away from its apparent MDR bias. i would just attribute this to a post splashdown "snap" back to reality, yet GFS hasn't dropped it yet. Very uncertain future for this wave

[skyline385]

Almost nothing on EPS that would be quiet a big bust if it verifiedhttps://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20220807/19d38f29e9139b7be58a448e723d6775.jpg

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Not sure what to trust here, GFS has been its typical bullish self with this, yet EPS has now strayed away from its apparent MDR bias. i would just attribute this to a post splashdown "snap" back to reality, yet GFS hasn't dropped it yet. Very uncertain future for this wave

Looks like ICON and CMC have backed off as well.

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[cycloneye]

12:05 UTC discussion:

A far eastern Atlantic tropical has partially emerged offshore
Africa. It has its axis along 16W from 05N to 20N. It is moving
westward at about 10 kt. Satellite imagery shows clusters of
scattered moderate to isolated strong convection mainly ahead
of the wave from 08N to 13N between the coast of Africa and 21W.

[MHC Tracking]

Almost nothing on EPS that would be quiet a big bust if it verifiedhttps://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20220807/19d38f29e9139b7be58a448e723d6775.jpg

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Not sure what to trust here, GFS has been its typical bullish self with this, yet EPS has now strayed away from its apparent MDR bias. i would just attribute this to a post splashdown "snap" back to reality, yet GFS hasn't dropped it yet. Very uncertain future for this wave

Looks like ICON and CMC have backed off as well.

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ECMWF seems to have potentially underinitialized vorticity, looking at real-time convective trends compared to both that and the GFS.

[MHC Tracking]

Looks like ICON and CMC have backed off as well.

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ECMWF seems to have potentially underinitialized vorticity, looking at real-time convective trends compared to both that and the GFS.
https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/903995026214879262/1005799062395686962/gfs_vort850_uv200_eatl_1.png
https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/903995026214879262/1005799062118879262/ecmwf_vort850_uv200_eatl_3.png
https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/903995026214879262/1005800078038007910/GOES16_1km_ir_202208071115_3.75_20.25_-32.00_-6.00_ir1_ltngge_hgwy_warn_latlon_weathernerds.png

It is possible but looking at CIMMS, it seems the GFS is overdoing the vorticity as well.

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20220807/acf3dbf9626d0eaeadccb2b10bba8218.gif


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Assuming the two products use the same scale, both seem to show relative cyclonic vorticity in the 20s - CIMSS just uses a different colortable.

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Sun Aug 7 2022

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave located just off the west coast of Africa is
producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the far
eastern tropical Atlantic. Environmental conditions appear generally
conducive for gradual development of this system while it moves
westward to west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph across the eastern
and central tropical Atlantic, and a tropical depression could form
around the middle part of this week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

$$
Forecaster Papin

[gatorcane]

Looking at how the GFS is doing with this wave so far and how the wave looks this morning, maybe it is the now the CMC of old (which developed everything). Seems the GFS might be over-zealous on development this time again. The CMC never really did develop this and so far that might be closer to reality. Even the Euro has backed off.

[Spacecoast]

0z EC Genesis backs off from yesterday: