SoupBone wrote:InfernoFlameCat wrote:tarheelprogrammer wrote:
Or it could be a very slow season for 2022. It has to happen again eventually.
There is absolutely no way only one system would form in the most active part of the season. This is why one should never regard models like the CFS as anything more than a bunch of hocus pocus. If only one system forms between august 20th and September 26th, I’ll eat my shoe.
I'm not really going to get into the whole argument of impossible vs improbable, I'm sure you guys know the difference. But we've been keeping weather records for 150 out of approximately 4 billion years. To suggest that something weather related is impossible simply disregards this fact. Then to call models "hocus pocus" because it suggests something that goes against our traditional understanding of weather is just dangerous. How about a deeper explanation as to why you think it's wrong? FTR, I also think it's not going to verify, but that's only based on our traditional understanding of climatology.
I mean i have commented several times in this thread why CFS should not be used for looking at systems. It’s an extremely coarse model with 100-km x 100-km grids, that’s pretty much the size of a latitude (110-km). In case anyone is unaware what the grids are used for, they are the points at which calculations are done so a 100-km x 100-km grid will have only 4 points on which calculations will be done for the forecast, all other points are extrapolated from these. Think about that, between an entire latitude and longitude, only 4 points are used for the calculations which translates into the forecast. Now imagine trying to forecast a tropical cyclone with an eye less than 50-km which is where most of the thermodynamic processes occur, a month into the future using just 4 points inside a latitude/longitude grid. For reference, the EURO has a grid of 9-km by 9-km and it struggles to get TCG right sometimes even 5 days into the future. Hope this explains why CFS is called “hocus pocus” by some for looking at TC forecasts.
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