Tropical Wave south of the Cabo Verde Islands (Is Invest 97L)

[Blown Away]

NHC at 40% seems aggressive, but a TD/Weak TS could happen per GFS in next 5 days. Beyond 5 days little model support likely due to cooler SST & shear if latitude is gained in MDR. Probably in the next few updates the NHC will start mentioning unfavorable conditions later in forecast if modeling continues not supporting in the late range.

[skyline385]

Nothing except a disturbance on the 06Z EURO and the 12Z ICON, 12Z GFS coming in much weaker as well; think we all know where this is headed

[Kingarabian]

GFS continues to develop this wave.

[aspen]

Given how 2/3rds of this year’s storms have performed, it’s not impossible that we end up tracking this wave across the entire basin, only for it to develop more than a week later at the last possible moment in the western basin.

[Kingarabian]

Given how 2/3rds of this year’s storms have performed, it’s not impossible that we end up tracking this wave across the entire basin, only for it to develop more than a week later at the last possible moment in the western basin.

Dangerous setup when it comes to MDR systems then.

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Sun Aug 7 2022

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave located near the west coast of Africa is
producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the far
eastern tropical Atlantic. Environmental conditions appear generally
conducive for gradual development of this system while it moves
westward to west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph across the eastern
and central tropical Atlantic, and a tropical depression could form
around the middle to latter part of this week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

$$
Forecaster Papin

[skyline385]

An interesting trend has been that the Euro has trended south with every run, although weaker

[Blown Away]

2pm NHC update is positioned a little SE from previous advisories. 12z GFS had a big shift moving the TW just N of Caribbean and near Bahamas. Modeling not showing much strengthening, but moving farther W.

[Hammy]

Seems like the GFS can be completely discarded as with other seasons when it comes to genesis.

[Kingarabian]

Seems like the GFS can be completely discarded as with other seasons when it comes to genesis.

GFS dropped Bonnie before the Euro and CMC. Why shouldn't we trust it here?

[Nimbus]

2pm NHC update is positioned a little SE from previous advisories. 12z GFS had a big shift moving the TW just N of Caribbean and near Bahamas. Modeling not showing much strengthening, but moving farther W.

Looks like a bit of an ULL circulation tracking west out ahead of the wave which pulls moisture up from the ITCZ damping the SAL effect.
Also might shear portions of the system further north initially.
NHC stuck with 40% for 5 days so they might be seeing a different evolution than the dried out waves earlier.

[drezee]

 https://twitter.com/andretrotter/status/1556417306695061505

[WiscoWx02]

GFS has trended weaker and weaker and short lived overall..thinking by this time tomorrow it fades from the models entirely if this continues.

[toad strangler]

GFS has trended weaker and weaker and short lived overall..thinking by this time tomorrow it fades from the models entirely if this continues.

We are getting to that time of year when the last thing you trust with waves in pre genesis stages are models. But, we'll see.

[cycloneye]

40% at 8 PM.

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Sun Aug 7 2022

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave located near the west coast of Africa is
producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the far
eastern tropical Atlantic. Environmental conditions appear generally
conducive for gradual development of this system while it moves
westward to west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph across the eastern
and central tropical Atlantic, and a tropical depression could form
around the middle to latter part of this week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

$$
Forecaster Beven

[Blown Away]

NHC saying possible TD by middle to end of week, obviously not depending on GFS/Euro/CMC which barely show a closed low in 5 days.

If model support continues to wane I suspect the NHC will start adding “Conditions may become unfavorable later in the week” in future updates. JMHO

[Hammy]

Seems like the GFS can be completely discarded as with other seasons when it comes to genesis.

GFS dropped Bonnie before the Euro and CMC. Why shouldn't we trust it here?

The model has a history of showing phantom storms as close as 48 hours in the MDR/Caribbean, while completely missing storms that actually do form. NAM has a better track record, having caught several Gulf/East Coast storms that no other model picked up on.

[Sciencerocks]

[weeniepatrol]

[IsabelaWeather]

Wow, the wave is looking very good atm. Very consistent thunderstorms after full splashdown.