ATL: Ex INVEST 97L - Discussion

[Nancy Smar]

AL, 97, 2022080806, , BEST, 0, 110N, 193W, 20, 1009, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 180, 80, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 014,

https://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/btk/?C=M;O=D

[jaxfladude]

We have an, in the far eastern Atlantic Basin, Invest, start of real hurricane season, about to get busy time or an one off till next Invest?

[cycloneye]

AL, 97, 2022080812, , BEST, 0, 115N, 212W, 25, 1010, DB

[tolakram]

COD floater view: https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=meso-meso1-02-48-1-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

[kevin]

Latest visual loop:

[drezee]

 https://twitter.com/andretrotter/status/1556615496664895488

[IsabelaWeather]

https://twitter.com/andretrotter/status/1556615496664895488?t=sHKsFZ0mzK8aioLHGFvxKg&s=19

That convection isnt near the CoC though, the CoC has a new area of intense storms rising just to the east as we speak.

[Weatherboy1]

Soooooo guess I have to start paying attention to the ol’ tropics again huh? Was quite the “vacation” over the last Month! Lol

[ElectricStorm]

Yep definitely need to watch this, may not be anything too crazy but we'll see...

[Sciencerocks]

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Mon Aug 8 2022

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
A large area of showers and thunderstorms over the far eastern
tropical Atlantic south of the Cabo Verde islands is associated with
a tropical wave. This system has changed little in organization
today, but environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual
development over the next several days while it moves westward to
west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph across the eastern and central
tropical Atlantic. A tropical depression could form by the middle to
latter portion of this week before environmental conditions become
less favorable by this weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

Forecaster Papin

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/1556682890905128960

[captainbarbossa19]

Looks like a lot of uncertainty with this wave. I stepped away from models for about a day, and I noticed that now models are trending more westward. Initially, they had this really weak and well east of the CONUS. Need to watch this wave closely because it could find more favorable conditions further down the road. I have watched over the years models love to kill waves when they get west enough, but in reality they are much stronger.

[tropicwatch]

If the surface wind graphic from Zoom Earth is accurate. Looks like there might be a weak surface circulation.

[zzh]

Zoom Earth uses GFS wind product.

[cycloneye]

AL, 97, 2022080818, , BEST, 0, 117N, 227W, 25, 1010, DB

[tropicwatch]

AL, 97, 2022080818, , BEST, 0, 117N, 227W, 25, 1010, DB

On the Zoom Earth map the wind circulation is very close to those coordinates.

[tropicwatch]

Decent uptick in 925mb vorticity this afternoon.

[St0rmTh0r]

Looks like a lot of uncertainty with this wave. I stepped away from models for about a day, and I noticed that now models are trending more westward. Initially, they had this really weak and well east of the CONUS. Need to watch this wave closely because it could find more favorable conditions further down the road. I have watched over the years models love to kill waves when they get west enough, but in reality they are much stronger.

yea happpens every year!

[tiger_deF]

Decent uptick in 925mb vorticity this afternoon.

The column is stacked up through 500mb vorticity as well. Convection is waning for the moment, but as we start to approach DMAX there will likely be a significant burst of convection which could help with lowering pressures. As long as dry air doesn't intrude on the AOI I think we could see TCG in the next day or two