This is the general tropical discussion area. Anyone can take their shot at predicting a storms path.
Moderator: S2k Moderators
Forum rules
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or
STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the
National Hurricane Center and
National Weather Service.
-
cycloneye
- Admin

- Posts: 146456
- Age: 69
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
#381 Postby cycloneye » Thu Aug 04, 2022 12:35 pm
Offshore of Southern Mexico:
Shower and thunderstorm activity has increased since yesterday in
association with a broad area of low pressure located offshore of
the coasts of Guatemala and southern Mexico. Environmental
conditions appear conducive for development of this system, and a
tropical depression is likely to form during the next couple of
days. The system is forecast to move generally west-northwestward at
10 to 15 mph over the weekend and into early next week, remaining
well offshore of the coasts of southern and southwestern Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.
Well Southeast of the Main Hawaiian Islands:
Another area of low pressure is forecast to form over the far
western portion of the eastern Pacific basin by this weekend. Some
gradual development of this system is forecast, and a tropical
depression could form early next week while it moves westward toward
and into the central Pacific basin.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.
0 likes
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members
Click Here
-
Kingarabian
- S2K Supporter

- Posts: 16152
- Joined: Sat Aug 08, 2009 3:06 am
- Location: Honolulu, Hawaii
#382 Postby Kingarabian » Thu Aug 04, 2022 12:44 pm
Models back in agreement on a decent TC in the CPAC. Looks like it's off the monsoon trough. Should make for some nice eye candy if it becomes a hurricane.
0 likes
RIP Kobe Bryant
-
cycloneye
- Admin

- Posts: 146456
- Age: 69
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
#383 Postby cycloneye » Thu Aug 04, 2022 1:24 pm
0 likes
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members
Click Here
-
Ntxw
- Storm2k Moderator

- Posts: 22809
- Joined: Wed Oct 21, 2009 6:34 pm
- Location: DFW, Texas
#384 Postby Ntxw » Thu Aug 04, 2022 1:55 pm
Kingarabian wrote:Models back in agreement on a decent TC in the CPAC. Looks like it's off the monsoon trough. Should make for some nice eye candy if it becomes a hurricane.
If this area gets a hurricane, out of explanations.
3 likes
The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.
Help support Storm2K!
-
cycloneye
- Admin

- Posts: 146456
- Age: 69
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
#385 Postby cycloneye » Thu Aug 04, 2022 6:53 pm
Well Southeast of the Main Hawaiian Islands:
Another area of low pressure is forecast to form over the far
western portion of the eastern Pacific basin by this weekend. Some
gradual development of this system is forecast, and a tropical
depression could form early next week while it moves westward toward
and into the central Pacific basin.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent
0 likes
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members
Click Here
-
cycloneye
- Admin

- Posts: 146456
- Age: 69
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
#386 Postby cycloneye » Mon Aug 08, 2022 12:29 pm
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Mon Aug 8 2022
For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:
Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Howard, located a few hundred miles southwest of the
southern tip of Baja California.
Well East-Southeast of the Hawaiian Islands:
A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms is associated
with a broad trough of low pressure located more than 1000 miles
east-southeast of the Hawaiian Islands. Development of this system,
if any, will be slow to occur during the next couple of days. This
system is expected to move generally westward into the central
Pacific basin by the middle portion of this week, where
environmental conditions are forecast to become less conducive for
additional development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.
Offshore of Southwest Mexico:
An area of low pressure is forecast to form a few hundred miles
south of southwestern Mexico in a few days. Some development of
this system is possible later this week while it moves
west-northwestward, well offshore of the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.
$$
Forecaster Hagen/Pasch
0 likes
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members
Click Here
-
cycloneye
- Admin

- Posts: 146456
- Age: 69
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
#387 Postby cycloneye » Mon Aug 08, 2022 4:05 pm
2 likes
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members
Click Here
-
aspen
- Category 5

- Posts: 8865
- Joined: Sat Oct 12, 2019 7:10 pm
- Location: Connecticut, USA
#388 Postby aspen » Mon Aug 08, 2022 5:10 pm
If the NHC in post-season assesses Celia’s last-minute second peak as a weak hurricane, then 2022 will have had 8 hurricanes by now. How a -ENSO and -PDO year is running ahead of 2015 and 2018’s hurricane counts is beyond me.
0 likes
Irene '11 Sandy '12 Hermine '16 5/15/2018 Derecho Fay '20 Isaias '20 Elsa '21 Henri '21 Ida '21
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
-
Yellow Evan
- Professional-Met

- Posts: 16177
- Age: 27
- Joined: Fri Jul 15, 2011 12:48 pm
- Location: Henderson, Nevada/Honolulu, HI
-
Contact:
#389 Postby Yellow Evan » Mon Aug 08, 2022 5:29 pm
Warmth near the equator is suppressing the ITCZ enough that the TC’s we are getting have more time to deepen but due to the increased shear we are having, getting quick intensification especially after a core is partially established has been an issue. Result is high named storms, ACE, and hurricane count with an expected major hurricane count, and I’m still expecting a sharp decline in activity soon as supported by the EPS and with the Atlantic peak looming.
3 likes
-
Kingarabian
- S2K Supporter

- Posts: 16152
- Joined: Sat Aug 08, 2009 3:06 am
- Location: Honolulu, Hawaii
#390 Postby Kingarabian » Mon Aug 08, 2022 8:37 pm
Yellow Evan wrote:Warmth near the equator is suppressing the ITCZ enough that the TC’s we are getting have more time to deepen but due to the increased shear we are having, getting quick intensification especially after a core is partially established has been an issue. Result is high named storms, ACE, and hurricane count with an expected major hurricane count, and I’m still expecting a sharp decline in activity soon as supported by the EPS and with the Atlantic peak looming.
I agree, if there were anything but -ENSO conditions these hurricanes would all be very close to MH status. In regards to the decline in activity it should happen soon. But IDK the 18z GFS says otherwise. Probably its biases again.
2 likes
RIP Kobe Bryant
-
Yellow Evan
- Professional-Met

- Posts: 16177
- Age: 27
- Joined: Fri Jul 15, 2011 12:48 pm
- Location: Henderson, Nevada/Honolulu, HI
-
Contact:
#391 Postby Yellow Evan » Tue Aug 09, 2022 8:06 am
Even in +ENSO I’m not sure we’d get genesis this far east consistently like this season in one. All we need is the rising cell over Central America associated with -AMO, and I’d bank on 6-8 majors and 200 ACE. Of course, we’d also have a much busier peak due to overall lack of competition from the Atlantic.
Last edited by
Yellow Evan on Tue Aug 09, 2022 11:27 am, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes
-
InfernoFlameCat
- Category 5

- Posts: 2101
- Age: 22
- Joined: Mon Dec 14, 2020 10:52 am
- Location: Buford, GA
#392 Postby InfernoFlameCat » Tue Aug 09, 2022 8:10 am
Epac is ridiculous. What is fueling this activity?!
1 likes
I am by no means a professional. DO NOT look at my forecasts for official information or make decisions based on what I post.
Goal: to become a registered expert over tropical and subtropical cyclones.
-
cycloneye
- Admin

- Posts: 146456
- Age: 69
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
#393 Postby cycloneye » Tue Aug 09, 2022 6:35 pm
1. Offshore of Southwestern Mexico:
A broad trough of low pressure located several hundred miles south
of the coasts of southern and southwestern Mexico is producing a
disorganized area of showers and a few thunderstorms. Environmental
conditions appear conducive for gradual development of this system,
and a tropical depression is likely to form by this weekend while
it moves west-northwestward to northwestward, well offshore of the
coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.
1 likes
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members
Click Here
-
cycloneye
- Admin

- Posts: 146456
- Age: 69
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
#394 Postby cycloneye » Tue Aug 09, 2022 6:35 pm
1. Offshore of Southwestern Mexico:
A broad trough of low pressure located several hundred miles south
of the coasts of southern and southwestern Mexico is producing a
disorganized area of showers and a few thunderstorms. Environmental
conditions appear conducive for gradual development of this system,
and a tropical depression is likely to form by this weekend while
it moves west-northwestward to northwestward, well offshore of the
coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.
0 likes
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members
Click Here
-
Ntxw
- Storm2k Moderator

- Posts: 22809
- Joined: Wed Oct 21, 2009 6:34 pm
- Location: DFW, Texas
#395 Postby Ntxw » Wed Aug 10, 2022 7:44 am
Per CSU EPAC has reached 80 units of ACE.
6 likes
The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.
Help support Storm2K!

-
cycloneye
- Admin

- Posts: 146456
- Age: 69
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
#396 Postby cycloneye » Wed Aug 10, 2022 2:03 pm
0 likes
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members
Click Here
-
Ntxw
- Storm2k Moderator

- Posts: 22809
- Joined: Wed Oct 21, 2009 6:34 pm
- Location: DFW, Texas
#397 Postby Ntxw » Wed Aug 10, 2022 6:57 pm
GFS continues to show more EPAC activity. Not shutdown yet.
0 likes
The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.
Help support Storm2K!

-
DorkyMcDorkface
- Category 4

- Posts: 918
- Age: 27
- Joined: Mon Sep 30, 2019 1:32 pm
- Location: Mid-Atlantic
#398 Postby DorkyMcDorkface » Thu Aug 11, 2022 9:21 am
Ntxw wrote:GFS continues to show more EPAC activity. Not shutdown yet.
GFS tends to have a bias towards phases 8/1 of the MJO which is likely why it is still keeping the EPAC train rolling - despite a brief reprieve mid-month, a -VP cell swiftly reappears over Central America, and it is an outlier in this regard. Euro and CMC are showing things quieting down after 90E, which makes sense as the EPAC eventually gets suppressed due to proper MJO/CCKW progression. I would not be surprised at all to see the G(E)FS eventually correct towards this scenario.



0 likes
Please note the thougths expressed by this account are solely those of the user and are from a hobbyist perspective. For more comprehensive analysis, consult an actual professional meteorologist or meteorology agency.
Floyd 1999 |
Isabel 2003 |
Hanna 2008 |
Irene 2011 |
Sandy 2012 |
Isaias 2020
-
Ntxw
- Storm2k Moderator

- Posts: 22809
- Joined: Wed Oct 21, 2009 6:34 pm
- Location: DFW, Texas
#399 Postby Ntxw » Thu Aug 11, 2022 9:44 am
I understand it's the GEPS but quite interesting on your last graphic despite the western hemisphere in an overall sinking motion, South America continues the rising motion.
0 likes
The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.
Help support Storm2K!

-
cycloneye
- Admin

- Posts: 146456
- Age: 69
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
#400 Postby cycloneye » Mon Aug 15, 2022 4:37 pm
It was not expected but the basin has
Ivette.
0 likes
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members
Click Here
Return to “Talkin' Tropics”
Who is online
Users browsing this forum: AutoPenalti, BobHarlem, chris_fit, dl20415, Google [Bot], jhpigott, Kazmit, Kingarabian, Kodoku, LAF92, Lizzytiz1, Pelicane, pepecool20, quaqualita, riapal, RomP, Stratton23 and 198 guests