ATL: Ex INVEST 97L - Discussion

[Teban54]

Even if 97L doesn't develop within the MDR (not suggesting it won't), I wouldn't rule out a scenario like Gert 2017, where it develops when approaching or past the islands. The timing is very similar, too.

A track further west than Gert would make it even more concerning for possible CONUS impacts.

[Sciencerocks]

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Mon Aug 8 2022

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave continues to produce a large area of disorganized
showers and thunderstorms over the eastern tropical Atlantic a few
hundred miles south-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. Gradual
development of this system is possible and a tropical depression
could form by the middle or latter portion of the week before
environmental conditions become less favorable by this weekend.
This system is expected to move westward to west-northwestward at 15
to 20 mph across the tropical Atlantic during the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

Forecaster Cangialosi

[cycloneye]

AL, 97, 2022080900, , BEST, 0, 119N, 249W, 25, 1010, DB

[underthwx]

97L moving swiftly across the ocean, will that limit any potential development somewhat?

[Blown Away]

97L moving swiftly across the ocean, will that limit any potential development somewhat?

Agree, 97L’s narrative will be if the LLC slows down and stops racing ahead of its convection it could develop. It’s climo for early August. JMHO

[WiscoWx02]

Invest 97L is very disorganized this morning. Mid level center and low level center are not staked one bit…this still has a lonngggg ways to go until it becomes a tropical cyclone, if at all.

[Blown Away]

NHC backing off 97L a bit.

[Blown Away]

NHC 8am position was 12.0N/27.5W, not much rotation there IMO, broad circulation near10.5N/30.4W.

Not looking to good for 97L, but there seems to be more going on farther WSW from the area they are tracking. JMHO

[WiscoWx02]

https://i.imgur.com/dR79cl4.jpg
https://i.imgur.com/UZC532f.jpg

NHC backing off 97L a bit.

About time too. Bye bye 97L. Never really had a shot anyways IMHO.

[cycloneye]

AL, 97, 2022080912, , BEST, 0, 120N, 275W, 25, 1010, DB

[ElectricStorm]

Yeah probably not much of a chance this develops but we may need to watch it anyways as it moves further west. Probably unlikely though.

[ConvergenceZone]

https://i.imgur.com/dR79cl4.jpg
https://i.imgur.com/UZC532f.jpg

NHC backing off 97L a bit.

About time too. Bye bye 97L. Never really had a shot anyways IMHO.

We should start to get some stronger waves I would think by the first part of September............

[WiscoWx02]

https://i.imgur.com/dR79cl4.jpg
https://i.imgur.com/UZC532f.jpg

NHC backing off 97L a bit.

About time too. Bye bye 97L. Never really had a shot anyways IMHO.

We should start to get some stronger waves I would think by the first part of September............

Yeah one would think but we’ll see

[MGC]

Appears the SAL and dry air is winning out. Tough road ahead for 97L.....MGC

[Blown Away]

AL, 97, 2022080912, , BEST, 0, 120N, 275W, 25, 1010, DB, 34, NEQ,

At 2pm the NHC says 12.0N/27.5W, but there is a nice circulation with convection popping near 10.6N/31W.

[captainbarbossa19]

Even if 97L doesn't develop within the MDR (not suggesting it won't), I wouldn't rule out a scenario like Gert 2017, where it develops when approaching or past the islands. The timing is very similar, too.

A track further west than Gert would make it even more concerning for possible CONUS impacts.

https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/a/a1/Gert_2017_track.png/1920px-Gert_2017_track.png

Yep. Gert failed to develop in the MDR, but found more favorable conditions further west. I don't remember models really showing much happening until Gert started organizing near the Turks and Caicos Islands. I believe Gert is also the storm the GFS refused to show even though it was a cyclone.

[weeniepatrol]

18z TWD:

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is west of the Cabo Verde
Islands near 27W from 20N southward through a 1010 mb low at
12N27W, and moving west around 15 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is occurring from 08N to 15N between 25W and 32W.
Some gradual development of this system is possible and there is a
slight chance that a tropical depression could form over the next
couple of days. Afterward, environmental conditions will become
less favorable.

[Kingarabian]

18z GFS continues to close it off. Could see a name out of this.

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Tue Aug 9 2022

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave located several hundred miles west-southwest of the
Cabo Verde Islands continues to produce disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. While some gradual development of this system is
possible over the next few days, environmental conditions are
forecast to become less favorable by this weekend. This system is
expected to move westward to west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph
across the tropical Atlantic during the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

Forecaster Cangialosi