2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

[sunnyday]

Does anyone know what year was the last without a hurricane? Thanks for the info.

[skyline385]

Think August end to first half of September will make or break the season, it is near climo peak and the MJO phase is ideal during it. After that the active phase is forecast to move over the MC bringing the suppressed phase over Africa.

 https://twitter.com/osuwxguy/status/1557385947960016900





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[Teban54]

8-) Does anyone know what year was the last without a hurricane? Thanks for the info.

I don't know why people think this season will not have any hurricanes, much less on August 10. But to answer your question:

Seasons with 0 hurricanes have only happened twice since reliable records began in 1851. Once in 1907 (5/0/0), once in 1914 (1/0/0). Both years were way before the satellite era, so there could have been OTS hurricanes that were not detected.

[Teban54]

Someone forget to flip the switch? I was told it was happening soon.

All jokes aside, the Atlantic is really struggling. Instead of 2013 we should probably mention 1992. However, that was the year of Andrew, so it only takes one.

You know the season's about to underperform hard when people move on to "it only takes one"
That being said, looks like NATL will get lucky this year and escape with a below-average season. Wavebreaking continuing to stifle the MDR with a near-constant pump of dry air and shear, all through 384 hours...not a favorable look. Might see a few "homebrew" type storms. Maybe an Ida type thing. Idk though if the "switchflip" keeps being pushed back in time. At this rate we'll be talking about it in October, just like in 2013.

People have been calling below-average seasons on August 10 during many of the recent active seasons, sometimes even hyperactive ones. They rarely verify.

[WiscoWx02]

Someone forget to flip the switch? I was told it was happening soon.

All jokes aside, the Atlantic is really struggling. Instead of 2013 we should probably mention 1992. However, that was the year of Andrew, so it only takes one.

You know the season's about to underperform hard when people move on to "it only takes one"
That being said, looks like NATL will get lucky this year and escape with a below-average season. Wavebreaking continuing to stifle the MDR with a near-constant pump of dry air and shear, all through 384 hours...not a favorable look. Might see a few "homebrew" type storms. Maybe an Ida type thing. Idk though if the "switchflip" keeps being pushed back in time. At this rate we'll be talking about it in October, just like in 2013.

Model output in the long-range concerning dry air and shear is just as unreliable as it is concerning long-range TC signals...not sure why you're taking it as gospel

Watch him be right though

Yeah bad idea to look at models and say they will be 100% current. Models tend to “nowcast” more than anything this time of year and assume the dry air and wavebreaking will continue on overdrive simply because it is now. I remember this happening in almost every single year if not EVERY single year. Trust me, once we get to August 20th, things should start to stir. I think we need that timeline of the hurricane season to be reposted just as a reminder of where we are at

[hcane27]

8-) Does anyone know what year was the last without a hurricane? Thanks for the info.

I think 1914 ?

[Teban54]

Reposting this for seasonal trends and to address any possible concerns related to EPAC activity.

If anything, there's supposed to be a slight dip in activity on average during the next week or so.

 https://twitter.com/1900hurricane/status/1176182033661472768

[LarryWx]

8-) Does anyone know what year was the last without a hurricane? Thanks for the info.

I think 1914 ?

1914 was in the midst of a 2 year El Nino by the way.

[cycloneye]

Great discussion by Bob Henson of WeatherUnderground about what is going on in the tropics.

https://yaleclimateconnections.org/2022 ... d-la-nina/

[LarryWx]

Great discussion by Bob Henson of WeatherUnderground about what is going on in the tropics.

https://yaleclimateconnections.org/2022 ... d-la-nina/

Even though he mentioned Bonnie, Bob didn't note how unusually active the MDR was in late June, including when the precursor to Bonnie was there. It looked much more like peak season than June. Some folks were talking about what that was portending for the active part of the season, which we're obviously still waiting for. It is interesting how it went from unusually active in the MDR to quiet ever since. It could go back to active at any point. Nobody knows.

[SconnieCane]

Current state of the 2022 Atlantic hurricane season:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9WatQeG5fMU

[InfernoFlameCat]

Remember in late august through September, everything spins.

[skyline385]

This is a very good graphic imo giving a good idea of historical ACE data compared to current ACE.

 https://twitter.com/michaelrlowry/status/1557358973124313088





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[captainbarbossa19]

You know the season's about to underperform hard when people move on to "it only takes one"
That being said, looks like NATL will get lucky this year and escape with a below-average season. Wavebreaking continuing to stifle the MDR with a near-constant pump of dry air and shear, all through 384 hours...not a favorable look. Might see a few "homebrew" type storms. Maybe an Ida type thing. Idk though if the "switchflip" keeps being pushed back in time. At this rate we'll be talking about it in October, just like in 2013.

Model output in the long-range concerning dry air and shear is just as unreliable as it is concerning long-range TC signals...not sure why you're taking it as gospel

Watch him be right though

Yeah bad idea to look at models and say they will be 100% current. Models tend to “nowcast” more than anything this time of year and assume the dry air and wavebreaking will continue on overdrive simply because it is now. I remember this happening in almost every single year if not EVERY single year. Trust me, once we get to August 20th, things should start to stir. I think we need that timeline of the hurricane season to be reposted just as a reminder of where we are at

Are you referring to this timeline?

4. August 1st: Atlantic is still slow. Dry, stable air is present in the tropics. However, models are beginning to suggest things will be changing within a few weeks.
5. August 15th: Models show nothing in the near-future. Many are becoming skeptical about the season amounting to anything significant.

[hcane27]

8-) Does anyone know what year was the last without a hurricane? Thanks for the info.

I think 1914 ?

1914 was in the midst of a 2 year El Nino by the way.

I was a mere pup. Very boring year.

[cycloneye]

Interesting discussions on twitter world that ends with the bell.

 https://twitter.com/dmorris9661/status/1557461327651786755




 https://twitter.com/dmorris9661/status/1557462262323073030




 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1557464228495253504




 https://twitter.com/DylanFedericoWX/status/1557467022212186112




 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1557468121124032513




 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1557469109264302089




 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1557469784102637574




 https://twitter.com/DylanFedericoWX/status/1557469891694919682

[LarryWx]

I just noticed that the sky here in Savannah, GA, is milky and the sun looks filtered. It has the look of smoke or haze. But something about it looks different. Is this possibly from SAL? Anyone know if SAL is currently extending all of the way to the GA and SC coast? If so, this is fascinating as I don't think it gets here all the way here at this intensity more than rarely.

[Nimbus]

Gotta love that SAL machine they must have tweeaked the Richat structure or something this year.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/sal/g16split/movies/goes16split.html

[skyline385]

I just noticed that the sky here in Savannah, GA, is milky and the sun looks filtered. It has the look of smoke or haze. But something about it looks different. Is this possibly from SAL? Anyone know if SAL is currently extending all of the way to the GA and SC coast? If so, this is fascinating as I don't think it gets here all the way here at this intensity more than rarely.

SAL is all over the FL peninsula so maybe that’s what you are seeing in the sky when looking towards the ocean. But it doesn’t look like it’s made it to GA or SC yet.




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[LarryWx]

I just noticed that the sky here in Savannah, GA, is milky and the sun looks filtered. It has the look of smoke or haze. But something about it looks different. Is this possibly from SAL? Anyone know if SAL is currently extending all of the way to the GA and SC coast? If so, this is fascinating as I don't think it gets here all the way here at this intensity more than rarely.

SAL is all over the FL peninsula so maybe that’s what you are seeing in the sky when looking towards the ocean. But it doesn’t look like it’s made it to GA or SC yet.

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20220810/8324fb953ccf7ed853085bd4042ebb02.jpg


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Thanks. Then I bet that's what I'm seeing.

Related from Miami NWS office:

(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 PM EDT WED AUG 10 2022

THE SAHARAN AIR WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWEST THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THURSDAY. THIS WILL LIMIT THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE OVER
SOUTH FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON AND ON THURSDAY, AS THE PWAT VALUES
WILL STILL BE IN THE 1.4 TO 1.6 INCH RANGE WITH IS STILL AROUND THE
10 TO 25 PERCENTILE RANGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.