98A INVEST 220811 1200 22.0N 70.1E IO 15 1010
ARB: Tropical Cyclone 03A
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Re: ARB: INVEST 98A
JTWC is now warning on it as TS 03A (depression by IMD).
TCs in this area at this time of the year usually originate from pre-existing lows within the monsoon trough over India (thus, vorticity is not an issue), often allowing quick development if they emerge over water.
However, seasonally strong wind shear usually prevents these storms from significantly intensifying and causing them to weaken before landfall, like in the case of 03A which is forecast to degenerate to a tropical depression as it meanders south of Pakistan over the next 48hrs.
TCs in this area at this time of the year usually originate from pre-existing lows within the monsoon trough over India (thus, vorticity is not an issue), often allowing quick development if they emerge over water.
However, seasonally strong wind shear usually prevents these storms from significantly intensifying and causing them to weaken before landfall, like in the case of 03A which is forecast to degenerate to a tropical depression as it meanders south of Pakistan over the next 48hrs.
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