ATL: Ex INVEST 98L - Discussion

[cycloneye]

AL, 98, 2022081218, , BEST, 0, 283N, 923W, 20, 1014, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1016, 180, 60, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 015, SPAWNINVEST, al762022 to al982022

https://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/btk/bal982022.dat

[Wampadawg]

:It’s like a little appetizer to keep us busy until the mean entre arrives

[ChrisH-UK]

Looks to be a lot of activity and there seems to be a rotation. Now just needs to sort itself out in time.

[cycloneye]

Spin is evident.

[tolakram]

I was wondering. Except for some mid-shear I can't see why this doesn't develop. I'm sure I'm missing something.

The floater is in the wrong place in my opinion

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=meso-meso1-02-24-0-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

wider view
https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=subregional-W_Gulf_Coast-02-48-1-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

SLIDER natural Color RGB
https://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=goes-16&sec=full_disk&x=7682&y=5126&z=4&angle=0&im=12&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=130&motion=loop&maps%5Bborders%5D=white&lat=0&p%5B0%5D=natural_color&opacity%5B0%5D=1&pause=0&slider=-1&hide_controls=0&mouse_draw=0&follow_feature=0&follow_hide=0&s=rammb-slider&draw_color=FFD700&draw_width=6

[UTSARoadrunner4]

Is it possible for this to pull a 2020 Hurricane Hanna type of development? Very little to no wind shear in the western GOM.

[toad strangler]

Here we go with the switch. West basin first!

[cycloneye]

Position of the 18z Best Track at 28.3N-92.3W.

[toad strangler]

Tons of outflow boundaries in there so plenty of sinking air to work out.

[tolakram]

Saved loop

[tolakram]

2007 Humberto thread for those who like to read the oldies. Not the same of course, but always fun to read observations of storms in similar areas.

https://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=60&t=97897

[ElectricStorm]

IMO this has a more than 10% chance to develop, maybe some light shear but it doesn't seem like there's much else to hurt it unless it moves inland quicker than expected. I'm not expecting too much out of this but I certainly wouldn't be surprised to see a quick TD or weak TS

[Iceresistance]

Is it possible for this to pull a 2020 Hurricane Hanna type of development? Very little to no wind shear in the western GOM.

It is possible, but Hanna was further to the east, closer to Mobile, AL when it first formed.

[BobHarlem]

IMO this has a more than 10% chance to develop, maybe some light shear but it doesn't seem like there's much else to hurt it unless it moves inland quicker than expected. I'm not expecting too much out of this but I certainly wouldn't be surprised to see a quick TD or weak TS

If the CoC stays small it could ramp up fairly quickly, watching it because it's been too quiet and systems like this tend to sneak up on people. It probably won't, but it's happened before in this area.

[tolakram]

Oh hey, one of the models has woken up to the fact there might be a storm here.

[Steve]

IMO this has a more than 10% chance to develop, maybe some light shear but it doesn't seem like there's much else to hurt it unless it moves inland quicker than expected. I'm not expecting too much out of this but I certainly wouldn't be surprised to see a quick TD or weak TS

Potential Tropical Depression looks more like it, but I suppose a TD isn't completely out of the question. But didn't someone alert the forum last Saturday night that the next place to watch was Texas? Oh yeah, that was me. haha But in all fairness, it would be 2 or 3 days earlier than I thought and certainly not all the same origins.

ICON filled in its rain totals, so here's through 72 hours (7am Monday). Almost all the rain is offshore with the exception of the immediate coast and whatever they call that bottom notch of south Texas which is mostly in unpopulated areas west of South Padre and north of McAllen.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 1212&fh=72

[Steve]

Oh hey, one of the models has woken up to the fact there might be a storm here.

https://i.imgur.com/TSVzwfv.png

EC in the house. Bout time it catches up with the ICON and NAM models. Luckily we don't have the potential for any Harvey type situations which can happen this part of the season where steering in those latitudes is often nonexistent (Harvey was August mid-teens 2017).

[Iceresistance]

Vorticity is looking good, both at 700 and 850 mb. (NW GoM is the area I'm looking at since 98L is there)


https://s4.gifyu.com/images/850-mb-Vort.gif


https://s4.gifyu.com/images/700-mb-Vort.gif

[Nimbus]

Tons of outflow boundaries in there so plenty of sinking air to work out.

Some dry shear from inland is keeping this from developing quickly.
If the models are correct and it only has 24 hours before proximity to land ends the invest they might not even call a TD.
On the other hand for it to make landfall over south Texas it has to travel over warm SST's and might be able to work out enough dry air that technically they have to classify it.
There is a wave with potential circulation East of the Caribbean once it gets out of the SAL that has a lot more warm SST's to feed it before landfall. I'd give that a 20% chance of becoming invest 99.

[Edwards Limestone]

Really hoping this brings some rain to south/central Texas...we are in dire straits down here.