ATL: Ex INVEST 98L - Discussion

[skyline385]

Little surprised they still have it at 10%

 https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1558180484240183296

[jaguars_22]

This small storm could miss Texas all together! Looks like it keeps sinking lower and lower towards Brownsville. I’m hoping we get rain in Victoria but who knows

[Hammy]

Looks like direction will determine if it forms given how close it is to the northern Gulf at the moment. At the moment it seems like it's moving southwest enough that could allow for some time to consolidate into a depression or weak storm by the time it moves inland.

[tolakram]

COD natural color (RGB) loop

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=subregional-W_Gulf_Coast-natcolor-96-1-25-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

[South Texas Storms]

I think this system has closer to a 30-40% chance of becoming a TD or weak TS before moving inland into south TX near or south of Corpus Christi on Sunday. Mostly a beneficial rainmaker for south Texas. Bring on the rain!

[jaguars_22]

Could this system still come up to central Texas or no? If it gets stronger it could right?

[jaguars_22]

This thing hasn’t moved much either in the last few frames. If anything it’s migrated east under the heavier clouds?

[Craters]

IMO this has a more than 10% chance to develop, maybe some light shear but it doesn't seem like there's much else to hurt it unless it moves inland quicker than expected. I'm not expecting too much out of this but I certainly wouldn't be surprised to see a quick TD or weak TS

Potential Tropical Depression looks more like it, but I suppose a TD isn't completely out of the question. But didn't someone alert the forum last Saturday night that the next place to watch was Texas? Oh yeah, that was me. haha But in all fairness, it would be 2 or 3 days earlier than I thought and certainly not all the same origins.

ICON filled in its rain totals, so here's through 72 hours (7am Monday). Almost all the rain is offshore with the exception of the immediate coast and whatever they call that bottom notch of south Texas which is mostly in unpopulated areas west of South Padre and north of McAllen.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 1212&fh=72

I'm pretty sure I've asked this before, but does anybody know why the ICON's heaviest rainfall always and without fail stops abruptly at the coastline?

[South Texas Storms]

Could this system still come up to central Texas or no? If it gets stronger it could right?

I could see it coming inland as far north as Matagorda Bay. Most likely it will move in near or just south or Corpus Christi.

[MGC]

Small chance of becoming a TD.....too much dry continental air to its north. Should bring some rain to Texas.......MGC

[Iceresistance]

This thing hasn’t moved much either in the last few frames. If anything it’s migrated east under the heavier clouds?

It appears it drifted to the south throughout the day before hiding into the convection.

[WiscoWx02]

Of course the second I stop paying attention to the tropics an Invest appears. I’ll be tracking it like a hawk cause it’ll likely be the only Invest of the season at this rate JK but I think chances should be raised to at least 40% based on satellite and radar data. Definitely some low level rotation taking place. Low level vorticity is quite elongated but if thunderstorms persist then I could easily see that changing.

[Iceresistance]

 https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/1558162607844081666

[Nimbus]

New burst of convection further southwest in an area with more moisture.
Thought I saw some low level cloud wrap there, the outflow boundaries may have been from thunderstorms further north collapsing from dry air.
So I'm watching the clouds not the models with this one.
At least till Levi gets some dropsonde data to dissect.

[Sciencerocks]

[jasons2k]

This will come-in just south of Corpus. It remains to be seen how far north/inland the rain shield and attendant feeder bands will push on Sat and Sun.

[tolakram]

Saved RGB loop

[cycloneye]

Remains at 10%.

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Fri Aug 12 2022

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Northwestern Gulf of Mexico:
Showers and thunderstorms remain disorganized in association with a
trough of low pressure located over the northwestern Gulf of
Mexico. Development of this system, if any, is expected to be slow
to occur while it moves slowly west-southwestward at 5 to 10 mph,
approaching the Texas coast tonight and Saturday, and moving inland
over southern Texas on Sunday. Regardless of development, locally
heavy rains are possible along portions of the Texas coast through
the weekend. For more information about the potential for heavy
rainfall, please see products issued by your local National Weather
Service office and the Weather Prediction Center. An Air Force
Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate this
system on Saturday, if necessary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

For more information on the system, see products issued by the
National Weather Service at weather.gov and wpc.ncep.noaa.gov

Forecaster Berg

[Steve]

I think this system has closer to a 30-40% chance of becoming a TD or weak TS before moving inland into south TX near or south of Corpus Christi on Sunday. Mostly a beneficial rainmaker for south Texas. Bring on the rain!

Hey STS, if you can answer, do any of the radar derivative products you have access to show it tightening up to give it that 30-40%. I had weather nation on tv in the background, and their rainfall estimates that were painting in sort of were staggered bands and filled in more of coastal south Texas but got further inland with some of the heavier amounts.

It’s a good thing the low is likely to move inland soon. I suspect it’s because the center is the backing piece of that east coast trough split rather than an originally tropical feature. You can see it on the late visibles how the clouds around the entire trough want to twist. We can confirm tomorrow when CPC puts out the MJO model charts, but the look in the Gulf seems like we may have moved out the circle or are very close. You could see in a slightly different pattern where something could go down to the mid Gulf and come back up as something much stronger.

[Steve]

IMO this has a more than 10% chance to develop, maybe some light shear but it doesn't seem like there's much else to hurt it unless it moves inland quicker than expected. I'm not expecting too much out of this but I certainly wouldn't be surprised to see a quick TD or weak TS

Potential Tropical Depression looks more like it, but I suppose a TD isn't completely out of the question. But didn't someone alert the forum last Saturday night that the next place to watch was Texas? Oh yeah, that was me. haha But in all fairness, it would be 2 or 3 days earlier than I thought and certainly not all the same origins.

ICON filled in its rain totals, so here's through 72 hours (7am Monday). Almost all the rain is offshore with the exception of the immediate coast and whatever they call that bottom notch of south Texas which is mostly in unpopulated areas west of South Padre and north of McAllen.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 1212&fh=72

I'm pretty sure I've asked this before, but does anybody know why the ICON's heaviest rainfall always and without fail stops abruptly at the coastline?

Can’t answer that. I only look at all the models’ total precip outputs when a system is around and not enough otherwise to comment on its biases.