ATL: Ex INVEST 98L - Discussion

[lrak]

MJO still isn’t quite right, so minor disturbance is it. I don’t wonder though if 98L won’t be one of those systems that winds up more slightly inland. I think it’s going to move west whereas it would be more likely to improve with a northern component to the track.

We in S.TX and all the area livestock are praying for rain, well probably not the livestock S.TX needs some positive comments regarding a beneficial rain event. Radar is showing so much potential. Surf or no surf, we really need some moisture. I've got two inch cracks that are almost a yard deep on my property.

[SoupBone]

MJO still isn’t quite right, so minor disturbance is it. I don’t wonder though if 98L won’t be one of those systems that winds up more slightly inland. I think it’s going to move west whereas it would be more likely to improve with a northern component to the track.

I just wanted some damn rain from it! Looks like we're getting nothing in NW Houston.

[lrak]

MJO still isn’t quite right, so minor disturbance is it. I don’t wonder though if 98L won’t be one of those systems that winds up more slightly inland. I think it’s going to move west whereas it would be more likely to improve with a northern component to the track.

I just wanted some damn rain from it! Looks like we're getting nothing in NW Houston.

Feel your pain. Really hope you guys get some, I bet it goes poof as usual.

Thinking of studing Voodoo, getting desperate.

[jasons2k]

Well, we were supposed to get some solid drought relief across SE Texas from this. My rain chances from the NWS have taken a nose dive every day beginning Thursday.

This is the second system in the Gulf that was supposed to soak us and both turned out to be busts. Not good when we are fighting a drought.

[ChrisH-UK]

98L is having a lot of convective activity with the warm waters of the gulf.

[Wampadawg]

Well, we were supposed to get some solid drought relief across SE Texas from this. My rain chances from the NWS have taken a nose dive every day beginning Thursday.

This is the second system in the Gulf that was supposed to soak us and both turned out to be busts. Not good when we are fighting a drought.

With ya on that what typically busts a south Texas drought open question to those who have lived here longer than me ,as this my first drought?

[Sciencerocks]

[jaguars_22]

I’m almost wondering if the lower pressure is going to form off to the NE where that band is wrapping

[Steve]

Well, we were supposed to get some solid drought relief across SE Texas from this. My rain chances from the NWS have taken a nose dive every day beginning Thursday.

This is the second system in the Gulf that was supposed to soak us and both turned out to be busts. Not good when we are fighting a drought.

With ya on that what typically busts a south Texas drought open question to those who have lived here longer than me ,as this my first drought?

This time of year tropical systems if you aren’t in a pattern where you are getting sea breeze fronts. Sometimes the south periphery of the summer death ridge as well.

[Steve]

Well, we were supposed to get some solid drought relief across SE Texas from this. My rain chances from the NWS have taken a nose dive every day beginning Thursday.

This is the second system in the Gulf that was supposed to soak us and both turned out to be busts. Not good when we are fighting a drought.

Yet you can see that giant feed of tropical moisture aiming that way only to know it will mostly stay offshore for SETX

[cycloneye]

Nice tool of mosaic radar from Alex Boreham.

[USTropics]

I’m almost wondering if the lower pressure is going to form off to the NE where that band is wrapping

You're pretty close to the truth. The surface vorticity chart really exhibits an elongated trough, with lowering pressure stretched along this entire gradient:


WPC surface chart analysis:


What generally happens in this scenario is multiple areas of vorticity will develop along the trough axis. Not always, but typically the dominant surface vorticity follows the lowering pressure along the trough axis to the northern flank, where convective convergence is strongest.

Personally, I think chances are much higher than 20% for this to close off right before coming ashore (50/50 shot imo). Time is the biggest detriment to development (has about a 15-18 hour window before coming ashore) as well as the disorganized manner of the convection (and some slight continental dry air intrusions typical for this area). The high pressure area in the NE GOM that is expanding and shoving this inland isn't oriented to fully aid in TCG (typically low pressure on the SW flank is the most optimal). Otherwise the upper-level environment is solid, low shear, and RH values are conducive for TCG.

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Sat Aug 13 2022

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Northwestern Gulf of Mexico:
Shower and thunderstorm activity has increased since early this
morning over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico in association with a
broad low pressure area. However, surface pressures remain high and
any additional development should be slow to occur while the system
moves slowly west-southwestward and approaches the Texas coast
later today and tonight. The disturbance is forecast to move
inland over southern Texas on Sunday morning. Regardless of
development, locally heavy rains are possible along portions of
the Texas coast through the weekend. For more information about the
potential for heavy rainfall, please see products issued by your
local National Weather Service office and the Weather Prediction
Center.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

For more information on the system, see products issued by the
National Weather Service at weather.gov and wpc.ncep.noaa.gov

Forecaster Brown

[Nimbus]

The high centered near Oklahoma should pull all this moisture inland over south Texas so be patient.
Elongated systems bring higher precipitation totals to a larger area without Tropical storm strength winds so I'd wishcast that.

[Wampadawg]

The high centered near Oklahoma should pull all this moisture inland over south Texas so be patient.
Elongated systems bring higher precipitation totals to a larger area without Tropical storm strength winds so I'd wishcast that.

Right after reading this we get some of the outer bands here in South Pearland

[Steve]

Looks like some building storms along the coast near Port Lavaca. It’s early enough in the day that it could be a good sign for those that way who need rain.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/sat ... product=ir

[ChrisH-UK]

This the radar loop out of Corpus Christi and a Visible Loop from GOES-16

[tolakram]

saved loop

[tolakram]

saved, this time from CC.

[ROCK]

If it had 24 more hours maybe had a chance. So close to consolidation.