ATL: Ex INVEST 98L - Discussion

[lrak]

Based off those radar loops, it looks a lot better than yesterday. Maybe the coast is helping?

29.93 in is the lowest pressure I can find from our buoys, but they were higher 24 hours ago.

[zzh]

[Sciencerocks]

I think it has about 50% imo. Broad LLC and convection. We will see what happens but I wouldn't be shocked to see a quick tropical storm.

[Craters]

Currently getting some rain bands in Brazoria and Galveston counties. Decent but short intervals of heavy rain, but it just doesn't have that tropical "feel" out there that we'd normally have with a system trying to rev up off the coast.

For what it's worth. . .

[MGC]

Still a sharp trough oriented SW-NE. Considerable increase in convection since this morning, doubt it has time left to close off......MGC

[Kingarabian]

Shouldn't this be designated a PTC?

[Sciencerocks]

[tolakram]

Floater: https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=meso-meso1-natcolor-96-1-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

Sub Regional RGB https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=subregional-W_Gulf_Coast-natcolor-96-1-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

[tolakram]

saved loop

Not sure there's enough there to even be a PTC. Maybe?

[Teban54]

Shouldn't this be designated a PTC?

I think a PTC designation is only used when the disturbance has a 70%+ chance of development ("red") and with <=48 hours before land impacts. Since NHC currently gives a 20% chance, it won't be called a PTC.

[jaguars_22]

So it looks like this storm will be 2 pieces. One to the north and one to the south… hopefully they both remain moist and bring most of the coast rain!

[tolakram]

Convection fading again

saved loop

[tolakram]

^^^ this might be storms near the radar site

[Steve]

So it looks like this storm will be 2 pieces. One to the north and one to the south… hopefully they both remain moist and bring most of the coast rain!

I think what happens is that the northern ball fades away, and new storms fire up along the coast or just inland overnight.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/DylanFedericoWX/status/1558589906150203398

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Sat Aug 13 2022

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Northwestern Gulf of Mexico:
Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with a broad low
pressure area just off the Texas coast has weakened a bit during
the past few hours. The disturbance is forecast to continue moving
slowly west-southwestward and approach the Texas coast tonight,
and then move inland over southern Texas Sunday morning. Although
there is some potential for land interaction to cause the
disturbance to become better defined while moving onshore Sunday
morning, significant development of the system is not anticipated.
Regardless of development, heavy rains are forecast across southern
Texas through Monday, which could cause localized areas of flash
flooding. For more information about the potential for heavy
rainfall, please see products issued by your local National Weather
Service office and the Weather Prediction Center.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

For more information on the system, see products issued by the
National Weather Service at weather.gov and wpc.ncep.noaa.gov

Forecaster Berg

[wxman57]

Shouldn't this be designated a PTC?

No. A PTC would be issued if tropical storm watches or warnings are needed. They're not. At worst, this could be called a depression as it moves inland tonight. Winds 15-20 kts offshore with higher gusts in thunderstorms, whether or not the NHC calls it a depression before it moves inland.

[Steve]

I agree with Dylan. Models that had this earlier in the week did show pulsing up at the coast or just inland.

[Sciencerocks]

[Kingarabian]

HMON and HWRF relocate the center within the next 24 hours and landfall it near or at TS strength.

But it's looking pretty dead convection wise.