2022 WPAC Season

[dexterlabio]

If this year would be like any of 1998, 2010, or 2020 then the critical time to watch the basin is Northern hemisphere fall. It's quite puzzling how WPAC was able to spawn most of its record-breaking cyclones when the atmosphere gets a little colder.

[Hayabusa]

If this year would be like any of 1998, 2010, or 2020 then the critical time to watch the basin is Northern hemisphere fall. It's quite puzzling how WPAC was able to spawn most of its record-breaking cyclones when the atmosphere gets a little colder.

If this is like 2020 then watch out after Aug 20, we had Bavi, Maysak and Haishen formed. Aug 2021 was hella boring no typhoon formed let alone a major.

[mrbagyo]

This season has been an absolute snorefest.

[Kingarabian]

Reminds me of 2010 in the EPAC.

[Ed_2001]

Not my tweet, but of all the inactive records set so far this year, I found this one to be the most incredible. If no more storms for the next 13 days, WPAC will beat the lowest summer (Jun-Aug) ACE on record by a huge margin. With the possible development of 93W that number might finally go up again, but unless the strong TY forecasted by long range GFS for the end of Aug verifies, this record could get finalized soon.

 https://twitter.com/MatthewCuyugan/status/1559398424713494528

[al78]

Reminds me of 2010 in the EPAC.

Even in that year the NE Pacific managed a cat 5 in July, the second earliest forming cat 5 in the NE Pacific on record, and one of the less well forecast ones.

[NCSUFan_WX]

1 Typhoon and 1 Tropical Storm this week (per the JTWC). Pretty good signals from the GFS and Euro ensembles next week of a storm forming near Iwo Jima. Maybe WPAC is trying to wake up... we'll see.

[NCSUFan_WX]

Very interesting set up this week in the WPAC... Invest 90W (arguably already a moderate tropical storm) will likely head towards Shikoku or some part of mainland JP... however the ECMWF who has been most bullish (surprisingly) with this system from the start has it moving south of Okinawa and blowing up near Taiwan. However, ICON and GFS have different variations of 90W moving into Mainland JP, with a second storm forming either south of Okinawa or east of Okinawa. I think the GFS and ICON are under-estimating the current strength of 90W, but I think the ECMWF is overdoing it. We'll see how this evolves... but for those stationed in Okinawa, this will prove as quite a fun forecast challenge for Labor Day weekend.

[Hayabusa]

If this year would be like any of 1998, 2010, or 2020 then the critical time to watch the basin is Northern hemisphere fall. It's quite puzzling how WPAC was able to spawn most of its record-breaking cyclones when the atmosphere gets a little colder.

If this is like 2020 then watch out after Aug 20, we had Bavi, Maysak and Haishen formed. Aug 2021 was hella boring no typhoon formed let alone a major.

Well well looks like the August 20 switch activated over the WPAC.

[Hayabusa]

Looking at next month there's an upcoming favorable MJO pulse, so I expect tropical development after September 6, unless another sleeper like Hinnamnor comes in early. Note that Hinnamnor formed in the unfavorable MJO phase.

[dexterlabio]

Looks like we can expect more after Hinnamnor as per latest GFS and Euro runs.

[mrbagyo]

Looks like we can expect more after Hinnamnor as per latest GFS and Euro runs.

Looks like there will be amplification of westerlies on the deep tropics as shown at the end of those model runs.

WPAC's lower latitudes might finally break loose in the latter part of September.

[Ed_2001]

Looks like the previously much discussed August 20th switch did come to pass…for WPAC.

Ma-On, two majors Tokage and Hinnamnor, and now Muifa becoming yet another major and 15w on the verge of being named, and models continue to advertise more storms into the long range. Probably still won’t bring the season to average levels but a record dud year now seems less likely.

[jiminluv]

Looks like the previously much discussed August 20th switch did come to pass…for WPAC.

Ma-On, two majors Tokage and Hinnamnor, and now Muifa becoming yet another major and 15w on the verge of being named, and models continue to advertise more storms into the long range. Probably still won’t bring the season to average levels but a record dud year now seems less likely.

Well, provided we're in -IOD + -ENSO, more active autumn is to be expected, that why we're seeing majors after majors. However, like you said, there's no reason for now to predict an average or above average, as WPAC will get constrained by the cooling subtropics as well as tropics remaining stable due to -PDO. There's also another whammy from the effects of stratospheric injection of water vapor from Hunga Tonga Ha'apai back in January. Its effects for WPAC late-season and boreal winter is yet to be seen but looks to be possibly also to have influenced the Hadley Cell stretching due to the fact that Atlantic, despite of historically having less active seasons on third year -ENSO than the preceding two years is not having a season this dead in a La Nina https://www.severe-weather.eu/global-we ... luence-fa/

[doomhaMwx]

Growing support from Euro on another system after 92W (or soon-to-be Nanmadol). It has the incipient disturbance forming 4-5 days from now. GFS also has had it for a while now.

[Hayabusa]

September is not done, Euro is predicting a storm may develop following Nanmadol's track and thereafter a Philippine sea storm tracking westward

[xtyphooncyclonex]

GFS run could put us pretty close if not right at average ACE... this run is bonkers. Hinnammor and Nanmadol both far exceeded initial expectations. Five (and possibly counting) straight typhoons so far. ECMWF also supporting the SCS-bound typhoon.

[ManilaTC]

The last GFS model runs have been spinning up storm after storm in the next 15 days.

[Hayabusa]

Looks like continued tropical activity for the next two weeks is possible as MJO lingers in this basin. Especially now it's October, the epic legends form around this time. CFS shows below normal MSLP on both sides of the Philippines on late October.

[Ed_2001]

WPAC and NATL both made pretty strong comebacks after record quiet start to their seasons, and both are now at ~70% of average ace to date. Since Ma-On and Tokage a month ago ~105 units of ace has been generated, and ATL has also generated around ~60 since Danielle on Sep 1st.