2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[lsuhurricane]

Yucatan development is still a go on the 12Z GFS for next week. The Canadian also agrees.

Bears significant interest

[LarryWx]

Its surely much weaker this run looks closer to the euro.

Indeed, as of hour 192 the 12Z GFS is the least organized since the 0Z 8/16 run. Also, note that the high to the north is the weakest by a good margin in many runs.

Also, the 12Z UKMET is still another run with no TC anywhere in the basin out through 144 hours.

[Spacecoast]

Its surely much weaker this run looks closer to the euro.

Indeed, as of hour 192 the 12Z GFS is the least organized since the 0Z 8/16 run. Also, note that the high to the north is the weakest by a good margin in many runs.

Also, the 12Z UKMET is still another run with no TC anywhere out through 144 hours.

Seems to have stalled for several days between 34-37W. The GEPS(Canadian) ensembles showed several wrongway members earlier in same location...

[ElectricStorm]

Yeah that gulf system next week might be a big concern. Lots of time left but it's not a great sign

[toad strangler]

Not a big fan of the vorticity origination of the gulf signal on the GFS for next week. Seems like it comes from the semi legendary GFS vort pezz dispenser off Columbia & Venezuela.

[LarryWx]

Its surely much weaker this run looks closer to the euro.

Indeed, as of hour 192 the 12Z GFS is the least organized since the 0Z 8/16 run. Also, note that the high to the north is the weakest by a good margin in many runs.

Also, the 12Z UKMET is still another run with no TC anywhere out through 144 hours.

Seems to have stalled for several days between 34-37W. The GEPS(Canadian) ensembles showed several wrongway members earlier in same location...

It develops much later and due to the earlier stall, it is much further east than earlier runs, including hour 300. A very different setup.

Meanwhile on 8/28, the W FL panhandle gets hit by a H.

[Hurricaneman]

Not a big fan of the vorticity origination of the gulf signal on the GFS for next week. Seems like it comes from the semi legendary GFS vort pezz dispenser off Columbia & Venezuela.

It actually looks like to me but could be wrong that this modeled system comes from the wave around 48w

[aspen]

Looks like the first wave significantly weakens, stalls, and eventually gets absorbed by a later wave (emerges on 8/23 or 8/24) on the 12z run. Both the 06z and 12z runs try to develop something else in the MDR by 300+ hrs out.

[Kingarabian]

In regards to that first wave, 12z GFS is just slower with development but still develops it. That's a dangerous scenario.

[Hurricaneman]

Indeed, as of hour 192 the 12Z GFS is the least organized since the 0Z 8/16 run. Also, note that the high to the north is the weakest by a good margin in many runs.

Also, the 12Z UKMET is still another run with no TC anywhere out through 144 hours.

Seems to have stalled for several days between 34-37W. The GEPS(Canadian) ensembles showed several wrongway members earlier in same location...

It develops much later and due to the earlier stall, it is much further east than earlier runs, including hour 300. A very different setup.

Meanwhile on 8/28, the W FL panhandle gets hit by a H.

Possible major for the Pensacola area as modeled but since it’s beyond 5 days and the wave I’m watching for that is still at about 48w things will change and we may have a different solution in a few days to what’s being shown here

[BobHarlem]

The Canadian shows that Gulf system that the GFS spins up also, but quite a bit further west and weaker because of land interaction with the Yucatan.

[wxman57]

I think that the "hurricane" the GFS has striking the middle Gulf coast on the 27th is likely bogus. It appears to originate from a wave currently just west of 40W. GFS is likely too bullish with development. The strong wave in the central MDR next Friday (26th) is indicated in all the models, though. Something to keep an eye on. Very significant differences between the GFS and the CMC/ECMWF as far as ridge placement at 10 days. GFS shows a weakness in the ridge to the north, other models don't. Long way out, but it's the time of year when we'd expect development out there.

[jlauderdal]

In regards to that first wave, 12z GFS is just slower with development but still develops it. That's a dangerous scenario.

Development west of 60 is really dangerous, the long trackers get big headlines but west of 60 causes the most significant problems overall. The Atlantic is going to produce major hurricanes this year albeit a little late for some board members.

[aspen]

Not a big fan of the vorticity origination of the gulf signal on the GFS for next week. Seems like it comes from the semi legendary GFS vort pezz dispenser off Columbia & Venezuela.

I agree. On other Lower Dynamics plots on TT, it looks like all that vorticity and moisture magically arises from Venezuela. However, this track and evolution is eerily similar to Ida —genesis in the SWCar, NW track though the northern Yucatan or western Cuba, Gulf major landfall, possible baroclinic enhancement over the CONUS — so we probably shouldn’t count it out yet. If the GFS is still showing the precursor in the SWCar around August 23rd/24th in a few more days, then it might be legit.

[Kingarabian]

I think that the "hurricane" the GFS has striking the middle Gulf coast on the 27th is likely bogus. It appears to originate from a wave currently just west of 40W. GFS is likely too bullish with development. The strong wave in the central MDR next Friday (26th) is indicated in all the models, though. Something to keep an eye on. Very significant differences between the GFS and the CMC/ECMWF as far as ridge placement at 10 days. GFS shows a weakness in the ridge to the north, other models don't. Long way out, but it's the time of year when we'd expect development out there.

Latest CMC has something in the BOC at that time frame though.

[wxman57]

I think that the "hurricane" the GFS has striking the middle Gulf coast on the 27th is likely bogus. It appears to originate from a wave currently just west of 40W. GFS is likely too bullish with development. The strong wave in the central MDR next Friday (26th) is indicated in all the models, though. Something to keep an eye on. Very significant differences between the GFS and the CMC/ECMWF as far as ridge placement at 10 days. GFS shows a weakness in the ridge to the north, other models don't. Long way out, but it's the time of year when we'd expect development out there.

Latest CMC has something in the BOC at that time frame though.

Yeah, a weak low - not a hurricane.

[NDG]

I think the latest 12z CMC's 7-10 day range synoptic forecast is a good compromise between the Euro and GFS, at least at this time.

[Kingarabian]

I think that the "hurricane" the GFS has striking the middle Gulf coast on the 27th is likely bogus. It appears to originate from a wave currently just west of 40W. GFS is likely too bullish with development. The strong wave in the central MDR next Friday (26th) is indicated in all the models, though. Something to keep an eye on. Very significant differences between the GFS and the CMC/ECMWF as far as ridge placement at 10 days. GFS shows a weakness in the ridge to the north, other models don't. Long way out, but it's the time of year when we'd expect development out there.

Latest CMC has something in the BOC at that time frame though.

Yeah, a weak low - not a hurricane.

True. But the CMC has been super conservative the past couple of years. A weak low could be a decent TC if we interpolate.

[NDG]

Latest CMC has something in the BOC at that time frame though.

Yeah, a weak low - not a hurricane.

True. But the CMC has been super conservative the past couple of years. A weak low could be a decent TC.

Plus, Euro ensembles are trending towards development in that area, in that range.

[LarryWx]

In regards to that first wave, 12z GFS is just slower with development but still develops it. That's a dangerous scenario.

The 12Z GEFS says that the 12Z GFS' much slower movement of this AEW is a major outlier as it has the most active members far (over 1,000 miles) to the WNW of the 12Z GFS. Also, it doesn't have the weaker high that the 12Z GFS has in the central Atlantic. While not as alarmingly threatening as the 6Z GEFS, it is still another GEFS run with at least several members making it to the western basin with strong TCs.