Tropical Wave in the Central Atlantic (40W)

[SFLcane]

Hi guys,

This wave is not labled by the NHC juts yet, but has strong support from the GFS/GEFS ensembles and the EPS to a certain degree. Lets track. We shall see.

[cycloneye]

Was introduced at 12z.

[Iceresistance]

Hi guys,

This wave is not labled by the NHC juts yet, but has strong support from the GFS/GEFS ensembles and the EPS to a certain degree. Lets track. We shall see.

Appears to have a circulation with it too.

[ouragans]

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave has its axis near 19W/20W, from 20N southward, moving westward from 10 knots to 15 knots.Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 03N to 14N between 11W and 24W.

[ouragans]

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is near 23W from just east of
the Cabo Verde Islands at 19N southward, and moving west at 10 to
15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted
from 05N to 12N between 18W and 29W.

[Nimbus]

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is near 23W from just east of
the Cabo Verde Islands at 19N southward, and moving west at 10 to
15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted
from 05N to 12N between 18W and 29W.

Cape Verde islands are still in the Saharan dust but this could feed off the ITCZ.

https://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/sal/salmain.php?&prod=split&time=

[Blown Away]

Latest.

[Hurricaneman]

I think between 50w and 60w will be the area to see if this develops, if it does it could be a real danger but if not we’ll have to wait a little longer

[Blown Away]

I think between 50w and 60w will be the area to see if this develops, if it does it could be a real danger but if not we’ll have to wait a little longer

I agree, this TW has had the most model development down the road. GFS seems to show favorable conditions after @65W, but it also continues to show phantom hurricanes. Likely have to wait @8 days to reach @65W.

[LarryWx]

The GEFS had been rather bullish with this up through the 0Z run today. A good number of runs going back several days have had one to two handfuls of members with dangerous tracks over the NE Caribbean, Bahamas, FL, and the GOM. However, now that this AEW has moved off Africa, the GEFS runs seem to have started a quietening trend with this wave. The 6Z harped on a likely bogus S. American ITCZ disturbance and reduced the threatening members originating with this one. The 12Z is even quieter as I can't even find one strong TC coming directly from this AEW!
The GFS had 4 runs with W Atlantic hurricanes from this, but it has since not done too much with this. Other models have done almost nothing with it though a few EPS members have on some runs.

[Kingarabian]

12z GFS coming in with quicker and deeper development in regards to this wave. Actually shows a TC in the next 72 hours.

[LarryWx]

12z GFS coming in with quicker and deeper development in regards to this wave. Actually shows a TC in the next 72 hours.

You beat me to the punch, King, as I saw it down to 1006 mb at hour 90 of the 12Z GFS. Interesting....

Edit: This is the most organized on the GFS since way back on the 6Z run of 8/17!

[Kingarabian]

Climo would favor a recurve here but GFS had it moving due west through hour 120.

[ElectricStorm]

Pretty odd track this run, goes NW by Cape Verde then starts to move W and then now SW approaching the islands

[LarryWx]

Climo would favor a recurve here but GFS had it moving due west through hour 120.

https://i.imgur.com/Nh33e3Q.gif

I agree that climo would heavily favor a safe recurve, but as you said the GFS is moving it due W. Also, models for a week or more have been suggesting a move quite far into the W Atlantic basin due to the high to the north moving west with it for a long period. Also, with it still August and also La Niña, climo for recurve not as high as if it were later in season and not La Niña.

[Kingarabian]

Climo would favor a recurve here but GFS had it moving due west through hour 120.

https://i.imgur.com/Nh33e3Q.gif

I agree that climo would heavily favor a safe recurve, but as you said the GFS is moving it due W. Also, models for a week or more have been suggesting a move quite far into the W Atlantic basin due to the high to the north moving west with it for a long period. Also, with it still August and also La Niña, climo for recurve not as high as if it were later in season and not La Niña.

Yeah 12z GFS has this moving practically SW at hour 150.

[AutoPenalti]

GFS keeps this weak for the entire run until 70W, watch...

[Kingarabian]

GFS keeps this weak for the entire run until 70W, watch...

Yup starting to deepen hour 240.

[cycloneye]

I have some Dorian vibes.

[Blown Away]

12z GFS... 288 hrs