ATL: FOUR - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Discussion

[cycloneye]

AL, 99, 2022081818, , BEST, 0, 177N, 907W, 20, 1010, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 120, 60, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 016, SPAWNINVEST, al772022 to al99202

https://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/btk/bal992022.dat

Thread that was the topic for this area at Talking Tropics forum.

https://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopi ... 1&t=122854

[Nimbus]

Good NHC pulled the trigger now we can start getting some additional modeling resources.

[Hurricaneman]

My opinion is tonight or tomorrow we see the beginning of cyclogenesis and we see a 60mph Ts into Northern Mexico but this stays south of Texas

[Aric Dunn]

Good about time. now they just need to shift the entire system north about 75 to 100 miles.

[aspen]

Can’t wait to see what the HWRF and HMON say about this system now that it’s an invest. This could be a surprise named storm, seeing how well it’s kept itself together over the Yucatán.

[ElectricStorm]

Personally I think this develops into Danielle, my early guess is probably a 35-40kt TS at landfall in Mexico but we'll see.

[cycloneye]

Big outflow boundary ejecting from Yucatán but there is a good circulation to the south.

[Iceresistance]

Big outflow boundary ejecting from Yucatán but there is a good circulation to the south.

Also appears to be moving WNW

EDIT: Wrong Direction

[Stormcenter]

Let’s see if this one follows the NHC forecast or
decides not to. It would not be the first time.

[Aric Dunn]

Overall wave axis has sharped a lot today extending well to the north offshore north coast of Yucatan now. Convection should build more towards the north end as it has been the last few days do the divergent upper flow. Southern Texas should pay attention. current analysis is way off on the vorticity and models are initializing much too far south. Assuming convection continues to build offshore... models will soon come around.

[Aric Dunn]

Let’s see if this one follows the NHC forecast or
decides not to. It would not be the first time.

the forecast has already been quite off. .

[cycloneye]

[tolakram]

Let’s see if this one follows the NHC forecast or
decides not to. It would not be the first time.

the forecast has already been quite off. .

What forecast?

[LarryWx]

Big outflow boundary ejecting from Yucatán but there is a good circulation to the south.

https://i.imgur.com/0uC3k7H.gif

Luis/others,
Is a big outflow boundary like the one being noted (as opposed to good upper level outflow due to an upper level high, which also seems to be present) a bearish indicator for genesis chances? I thought I read that in past seasons.

[Stormcenter]

You know that yellow cone thing the NHC puts out every
6 hours for disturbances.

Let’s see if this one follows the NHC forecast or
decides not to. It would not be the first time.

the forecast has already been quite off. .

What forecast?

[Steve]

Big outflow boundary ejecting from Yucatán but there is a good circulation to the south.

https://i.imgur.com/0uC3k7H.gif

Luis/others,
Is a big outflow boundary like the one being noted (as opposed to good upper level outflow due to an upper level high, which also seems to be present) a bearish indicator for genesis chances? I thought I read that in past seasons.

It depends on the specific instance. Often it's a sign of a collapsing system. But sometimes you get those because a center is consolidating away from some of the strongest activity. They're more typically seen in bearish situations, but it's not anywhere near 100%.

[mpic]

After almost 4 months with no rain, I had almost forgotten why I always remove everything off my porch. We just had a small sample of torrential rain and wind com through and I have been jerked back into reality. Splendora, TX

[HurricaneBrain]

The yellow shaded area is the area where NHC gives the disturbance a chance at developing - not a cone or forecast path although it looks like one.

You know that yellow cone thing the NHC puts out every
6 hours for disturbances.

the forecast has already been quite off. .

What forecast?

[Stormcenter]

Oh I know, just adding a little humor to the
thread.

The yellow shaded area is the area where NHC gives the disturbance a chance at developing - not a cone or forecast path although it looks like one.

You know that yellow cone thing the NHC puts out every
6 hours for disturbances.

What forecast?

[Frank P]

Big outflow boundary ejecting from Yucatán but there is a good circulation to the south.

https://i.imgur.com/0uC3k7H.gif

Also appears to be moving ENE

I see no evidence of this moving ENE… maybe WNW.. but ENE?