ATL: FOUR - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Discussion

[skyline385]

Special TWO issued

60/60





Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[InfernoFlameCat]

Looking good. It also looked good when it splashed into the BOC because the system was stacked. Now it has convection along with it. I wonder if it could rapidly deepen? Most likely not but maybe.

[SouthDadeFish]

Greetings, friends.

At this rate, I wouldn't be surprised if today's recon mission finds a TC. Small system + notoriously favorable genesis location = potential for quick spin-up. Thankfully, 99L probably doesn't have much time to strengthen too significantly. Very interesting that guidance has been awful with the current development so far.

[South Texas Storms]

Greetings, friends.

At this rate, I wouldn't be surprised if today's recon mission finds a TC. Small system + notoriously favorable genesis location = potential for quick spin-up. Thankfully, 99L probably doesn't have much time to strengthen too significantly. Very interesting that guidance has been awful with the current development so far.

Yep, not surprised at all. The Bay of Campeche is notorious for quick spin-up TCs. I would expect the NHC to upgrade it later today.

[SoupBone]

Greetings, friends.

At this rate, I wouldn't be surprised if today's recon mission finds a TC. Small system + notoriously favorable genesis location = potential for quick spin-up. Thankfully, 99L probably doesn't have much time to strengthen too significantly. Very interesting that guidance has been awful with the current development so far.

Yep, not surprised at all. The Bay of Campeche is notorious for quick spin-up TCs. I would expect the NHC to upgrade it later today.

Do you have two accounts or something?

You guys have similar names.

[Aric Dunn]

Greetings, friends.

At this rate, I wouldn't be surprised if today's recon mission finds a TC. Small system + notoriously favorable genesis location = potential for quick spin-up. Thankfully, 99L probably doesn't have much time to strengthen too significantly. Very interesting that guidance has been awful with the current development so far.

Does not help that for the last many days all the vorticity/surface analysis data was way off. everything kept showing it well to the south of the actual wave axis. Which barely scraped Honduras and was over water. All the while the models kept the vorticity well inland over the mountains.

[ScottNAtlanta]

I just want to stress that the shape of the coastline in the BOC promotes spin. We have many a storm spin up quickly here. I'm really puzzled by the models. They usually get somewhat better when there is actually something there. Obviously the NHC sees something since they raised the probabilities over 40% the last couple of days (from 20 to 60)

[Iceresistance]

Greetings, friends.

At this rate, I wouldn't be surprised if today's recon mission finds a TC. Small system + notoriously favorable genesis location = potential for quick spin-up. Thankfully, 99L probably doesn't have much time to strengthen too significantly. Very interesting that guidance has been awful with the current development so far.

Yep, not surprised at all. The Bay of Campeche is notorious for quick spin-up TCs. I would expect the NHC to upgrade it later today.

Do you have two accounts or something?

You guys have similar names.

Similar, but not the same

SouthDadeFish is in Miami, FL, while South Texas Storms is true to it's location; Southern Texas, in Houston.

[ScottNAtlanta]

Also, whether this develops or not, there will be a big slug of tropical moisture that gets trapped by the frontal boundary which will enhance the rain even more. There is some flooding potential that people need to be aware of.
Also just checked buoy data from the BOC and winds have shifted from the E to the NE which would be consistent to where 99L is located

[SoupBone]

Yep, not surprised at all. The Bay of Campeche is notorious for quick spin-up TCs. I would expect the NHC to upgrade it later today.

Do you have two accounts or something?

You guys have similar names.

Similar, but not the same

SouthDadeFish is in Miami, FL, while South Texas Storms is true to it's location; Southern Texas, in Houston.

That was the joke.

[skyline385]

Convection building up, pink towers incoming through the center in the last frame.




Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Tailgater33]

The buoy just NW of the invest is saying meh, pressure drops over the last 24hrs are minor. So no rapid deepening but it does look to be organizing with weak feeder bands visible

[weeniepatrol]

 https://twitter.com/drkimwood/status/1560643439326380033

[ScottNAtlanta]

The buoy just NW of the invest is saying meh, pressure drops over the last 24hrs are minor. So no rapid deepening but it does look to be organizing with weak feeder bands visible

Yes, but it has shown a wind shift from the E to the NE in the last hour

[Aric Dunn]

The buoy just NW of the invest is saying meh, pressure drops over the last 24hrs are minor. So no rapid deepening but it does look to be organizing with weak feeder bands visible

Yes, but it has shown a wind shift from the E to the NE in the last hour

When pressures fall locally it takes a little time to propagate and be measured in the surrounding area.

[skyline385]

The buoy just NW of the invest is saying meh, pressure drops over the last 24hrs are minor. So no rapid deepening but it does look to be organizing with weak feeder bands visible

It’s pretty tiny and the core (if it were to form) would be very small as well, don’t think its going to be detected by buoys this early.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[ScottNAtlanta]

That ULL over Mexico has also been moving west. You can see the flow moving from the SW to S.

[weeniepatrol]

Signs of weak surface westerly inflow

[BobHarlem]

Current Visible

[tropicwatch]

Hurricane Hunters were supposed to take off about 15 minutes ago. Haven't seen any indication that they have yet.