2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)
12z GEFS...
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)
Is Tidbits down?
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)
Complete run.
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)
Some breaking news: Tropical Tidbits now runs the experimental HAFS and its parent model. For those of you who are out of the loop, this is set to be the official successor to HWRF. I believe it runs with full FV3 core integration.
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)
DorkyMcDorkface wrote:Some breaking news: Tropical Tidbits now runs the experimental HAFS and its parent model. For those of you who are out of the loop, this is set to be the official successor to HWRF. I believe it runs with full FV3 core integration.
https://i.ibb.co/rbLrdLN/Capture.png
I'm extremely curious what it will show for the wave offshore Africa, should it be designated 90L.
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Re: RE: Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)
That looks like it should in late august.cycloneye wrote:Complete run.
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)
Teban54 wrote:DorkyMcDorkface wrote:Some breaking news: Tropical Tidbits now runs the experimental HAFS and its parent model. For those of you who are out of the loop, this is set to be the official successor to HWRF. I believe it runs with full FV3 core integration.
https://i.ibb.co/rbLrdLN/Capture.png
I'm extremely curious what it will show for the wave offshore Africa, should it be designated 90L.
Also available here(HFIP site):
https://ruc.noaa.gov/tracks/
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)
Teban54 wrote:DorkyMcDorkface wrote:Some breaking news: Tropical Tidbits now runs the experimental HAFS and its parent model. For those of you who are out of the loop, this is set to be the official successor to HWRF. I believe it runs with full FV3 core integration.
https://i.ibb.co/rbLrdLN/Capture.png
I'm extremely curious what it will show for the wave offshore Africa, should it be designated 90L.
FWIW HAFS experimental has been available for a while on the AOML model viewer and its been a hit or miss at times
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)
Eps doesn’t like the first wave but has support for wave behind still over Africa.
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)
The models have fooled us before, but it looks like the tropics are really waking up now. Strap yourselves in for hurricane season folks.
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)
18z GFS is so far progressing almost the same as the 12z, with the northern portion of the first wave becoming a TD and staying weak in the MDR. The 18z ICON once again favors the second wave.
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)
18Z GFS showing something in the eastern Gulf next weekend, maybe TS, but heading toward the FL Panhandle.
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)
I’m afraid the 18z GFS is going to live up to its happy hour reputation and bomb this out in the Bahamas.
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)
SouthFLTropics wrote:I’m afraid the 18z GFS is going to live up to its happy hour reputation and bomb this out in the Bahamas.
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Not this time, just a weak circulation, unless I speak too soon.
ETA: YEP! I spoke too soon! It bombs out north of The Bahamas.
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)
Shortwave swept in and saved the day for Florida once again… not sure about the Carolinas yet.
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)
18z GFS trying to get going a 1932 Bahamas hurricane or Joaquin repeat, I see
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)
Artemis 1 will be launching from the Kennedy Space Center on Aug 29th, so hopefully this storm wont impact it. So much can change in the long range forecast, but the GFS shows this possible storm making its closest approach a couple of days after the launch, so not an issue yet (especially since we don't yet have a storm)
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