Tropical Wave in the Central Atlantic (40W)

[Blown Away]

IMO, this TW is worthy of a Lemon in the near future.

[cycloneye]

https://i.imgur.com/4UMPgfG.gif

IMO, this TW is worthy of a Lemon in the near future.

No lemon at 8 PM.

[gatorcane]

Climo would favor a recurve here but GFS had it moving due west through hour 120.

https://i.imgur.com/Nh33e3Q.gif

The 18Z GFS even shows some WSW movement between 84 and 144 hours. I agree this will be lemoned soon likely by tomorrow morning:

[Teban54]

18z Euro also develops this wave, similar to 12z.

[SFLcane]

18z gfs trending westward few more miles it’s over Florida.

[caneseddy]

Climo would favor a recurve here but GFS had it moving due west through hour 120.

https://i.imgur.com/Nh33e3Q.gif

The 18Z GFS even shows some WSW movement between 84 and 144 hours. I agree this will be lemoned soon likely by tomorrow morning:

https://i.postimg.cc/t4NsMK5V/gfs-z850-vort-eatl-fh84-144.gif

That WSW movement concerns me a bit. Indicates a strong HP to the north. Recall also that Irma also had a WSW dip when it was forming. Not saying this is going to be Irma part 2, but it does raise a bit of concern.

[Hurricaneman]

This has a chance at or near 55w if it can hang on

By the way the 0zGFS is showing this a little bit sw of the 18z at 102 hrs so it may be adjusting southward the last few runs

[lsuhurricane]

GFS sending this due west near PR, DR, then likely Cuba. Very similar to a few ensembles on 18z. Could be trouble for FL or the GOM if it holds together.

This GFS run goes absolutely nuclear with the number of named storms!

[ElectricStorm]

Yikes


Luckily it's way out there in the long range

[skyline385]

Yikes
https://i.imgur.com/fnFDA9A.png

Its not done yet, probably will be in the 960s at landfall

EDIT: 970mb it is, well GFS has been trying to do an Andrew or Dorian for a while and looks like it got one finally.

[SFLcane]

[SFLcane]

[skyline385]

GFS not happy with just Miami, going for the entirety of SFL this time with 40" of rain

[SFLcane]

That’s another westward trend

[AtlanticWind]

Kind of unusual the GFS ensembles dont pick up so much on what the operational is showing on the 00z.
They weaken the system in the central Atlantic

[AutoPenalti]

Meh, still far out, this could push further SW too. GFS drops this on 06z, shear is too strong.

[skyline385]

Meh, still far out, this could push further SW too. GFS drops this on 06z, shear is too strong.

The first wave has been questionable for a while imo, lots of dry air to battle in the MDR and models keep on going back and fro on its development. I wouldn't be surprised if nothing comes out of it. 0Z Euro also dropped it last night.

[AutoPenalti]

Meh, still far out, this could push further SW too. GFS drops this on 06z, shear is too strong.

The first wave has been questionable for a while imo, lots of dry air to battle in the MDR and models keep on going back and fro on its development. I wouldn't be surprised if nothing comes out of it. 0Z Euro also dropped it last night.

This time it’s actually a TUTT pinching off from the ridge.

[SFLcane]

Keep in mind the gfs has not really developed this wave until it gets into the western part of the basin. I would not be surprised if it’s back at 12z. Whatever the case Lots of convection over the eastern Atl and over Africa.

[Blown Away]