ATL: FOUR - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Discussion

[cycloneye]

00z Best Track.

AL, 04, 2022082000, , BEST, 0, 213N, 949W, 30, 1009, DB

[ElectricStorm]

Big pulse down in convection, but I'd assume that's due to DMIN. We'll see if it pulses up again

[AtlanticWind]

NHC notes there is actually zero model support for development so I wonder if they jumped the gun a bit on the 70% chance. Still good to have watches/warnings up either way.

I have seen so many storms in the bay of campeche outperform the modeling so
I have to say I dont blame them for issuing warnings.

[Nimbus]

Big pulse down in convection, but I'd assume that's due to DMIN. We'll see if it pulses up again

The convection is displaced east of the wave axis, there are a lot of recent lightning strikes in a convective burst that will keep this alive overnight. Might even close off into a depression by the time recon gets back out there.
Still some shear from the south although that should change if the high builds southeast far enough.

[jasons2k]

Not looking so hot tonight...would not be surprised if the center to get tugged NE. Still not stacked.

[Hurricane Mike]

11pm Video Update on PTC 4 as well as long-range models
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NKeUyIBsNEA

[ROCK]

Reminds me of Humberto 07…mid level junk up until landfall…

[skyline385]

Decreased to 70/70 now, probably from the lack of convection tonight

[ElectricStorm]

Starting to fire more convection now

[Hammy]

After watching that loop for about five minutes this seems to be the low cloud motion. Any low is well outside of the convection, and at this point I'd say 50% chance of developing. Seems to be mostly a very persistent MLC that for whatever reason is failing to work down to the surface, and it's likely that earlier today was probably the end of it's window.

[Aric Dunn]

Despite the MLC and rotation on satellite.. llc has formed farther east and north.. the MLC will quickly align with the surface reflection. landfall probably around brownsville.

[Aric Dunn]

Despite the MLC and rotation on satellite.. llc has formed farther east and north.. the MLC will quickly align with the surface reflection. landfall probably around brownsville.

https://i.ibb.co/JRg1q1s/33333333.png

and just for some reference.. this was about 30 min before the previous image..

the bouy switched from ENE to SSW.

[Aric Dunn]

33mph
gusting to 47..

likely we have a TS now.

[Nimbus]

33mph
gusting to 47..

likely we have a TS now.

https://i.ibb.co/SnZ13F5/555555.png

There was one gust of southerly shear to 40 knots on the east side of the system but I doubt its even 20 mph on the west side. Needs to be declared a TD if there is a circulation though.
Still don't know if it is a closed circulation but nice to see it hasn't deepened into something dangerous overnight.

[Hammy]

LLC trying to form on the western edge of the convection, but might be moving too fast to really close the western side. Depending on when the next recon mission is, the end of that mission may be the end of the window this has to get named.

[MHC Tracking]

LLC trying to form on the western edge of the convection, but might be moving too fast to really close the western side. Depending on when the next recon mission is, the end of that mission may be the end of the window this has to get named.

https://i.imgur.com/I7dzrRV.png

Strongly doubt this given ML rotation is nowhere near there, with little wind shear I see no reason why the LL rotation and ML rotation would be so far apart

[NDG]

It seems to me some dry light northerly shear is affecting the system this morning.
Tampico is reporting light NW winds this morning.

[NDG]

LLC trying to form on the western edge of the convection, but might be moving too fast to really close the western side. Depending on when the next recon mission is, the end of that mission may be the end of the window this has to get named.

https://i.imgur.com/I7dzrRV.png

Radar from Tampico shows it a little further south.

[Iceresistance]

LLC trying to form on the western edge of the convection, but might be moving too fast to really close the western side. Depending on when the next recon mission is, the end of that mission may be the end of the window this has to get named.

https://i.imgur.com/I7dzrRV.png

Strongly doubt this given ML rotation is nowhere near there, with little wind shear I see no reason why the LL rotation and ML rotation would be so far apart

The Vorticity appears to be displaced from the system.

[MHC Tracking]

Not even a semblance of westerlies. I doubt further development.