ATL: FOUR - Potential Tropical Cyclone - Discussion

[ROCK]

I don’t see any evidence it has a LLC at all..that huge outflow boundary to the north it just spit out is the sign.

[REDHurricane]

This is one of the most oddball situations I've ever seen with a system like PTC 4.

It's not taking advantage of the very warm waters despite low wind shear (It has increased on Satellite, but I'm thinking that it's not limiting it.), there is not much dry air either, there must be something else going on.

Is it really that odd though? Looks like it simply ran out of time after only a short period over the Gulf waters, just like 98L did. If this system took a slightly more northern/eastern route then I don't think we'd be having this discussion about the Atlantic basin being "broken" or whatever. I'd say it's much more probable that 98L's and now PTC4's lack of development can be attributed to random luck, where if either one's path had given them an additional 12-24 hours over water they would have very likely formed into a TD or TS. Yeah, if this kind of thing keeps happening throughout September and October then it's fair to say something must be way off, but right now it's far too early to make any broad conclusions in my opinion.

[Teban54]

I'd say it's much more probable that 98L's and now PTC4's lack of development can be attributed to random luck, where if either one's path had given them an additional 12-24 hours over water they would have very likely formed into a TD or TS.

Just to add that this part applies equally as well to Bonnie: it probably would have been a hurricane with another 12-24 hours in the Caribbean before landfall.

[toad strangler]

 http://twitter.com/tropicaltidbits/status/1561018111167385601

[Sciencerocks]

[Nimbus]

This is one of the most oddball situations I've ever seen with a system like PTC 4.

It's not taking advantage of the very warm waters despite low wind shear (It has increased on Satellite, but I'm thinking that it's not limiting it.), there is not much dry air either, there must be something else going on.

Surface pressure profile was flat like the bottom of a pie plate when recon got there and the environment still seems a little dry. Now if only the TUTT will return to shred the September Cape Verde storms.

[Hammy]

I'd say it's much more probable that 98L's and now PTC4's lack of development can be attributed to random luck, where if either one's path had given them an additional 12-24 hours over water they would have very likely formed into a TD or TS.

Just to add that this part applies equally as well to Bonnie: it probably would have been a hurricane with another 12-24 hours in the Caribbean before landfall.

Looking back over the satellite loop it seems like the vorticity was simply too far south and west the whole time--ever since Honduras the MLC and upper high was displaced from the low level center, and the southeast flow was too strong thanks to the forward speed and high pressure to be able to close off further northeast. The low level vorticity was already moving inland by yesterday afternoon

[InfernoFlameCat]

Convection building around the LLC.

[UTSARoadrunner4]

Well…this storm is a buzzkill…

[wxman57]

Northerly wind shear is increasing. All cirrus is being blown off to the south now. Development chances about gone. Playing out just as the models predicted.

[Hammy]

Max vorticity over the last five days

[Sciencerocks]

[Nimbus]

This is going to landfall in a lightly populated area so a few tropical storm force gusts won't wipe out a large power grid. Unless you know someone in Guayabas, Mexico I doubt you could prove a closed circulation though.

[cycloneye]

Down to 40%.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

[Sciencerocks]

[Iceresistance]

Joe B is saying that this might be the last underachiever for the Atlantic before the MJO becomes favorable for the basin.

 https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/1561053081835806720

[Iceresistance]

Down to 20%, Danielle must wait.

Goodbye

[LarryWx]

I think this is a TC already and will likely reach TS status soon.

Bust! But good news for those impacted.

[Sciencerocks]

[MarioProtVI]

0/0 and advisories discontinued. First POTC bust in the Atlantic since 10L in 2017 and the third overall since they started doing this (17E 2019, which was the last time a POTC failed to develop).