Tropical Wave west of the Cabo Verde Islands (Is Invest 90L)

[sma10]

The 18z is going to give us the "not running into Hispaniola" scenario for the lead wave

[ElectricStorm]

18z GFS has this just barely staying north of Hispaniola and becoming a hurricane near Cuba

[Blown Away]

18z GFS has first TW into Cat 2/3 heading for SFL.

[jlauderdal]

:eek: 18z GFS has first TW into Cat 2/3 heading for SFL.

Sofla has been nailed twice today on seperate runs

[ElectricStorm]

Direct hit for SFL at 964mb this run...

[skyline385]

Miami again

[sma10]

Typical mid-season tease from the GFS. The dreaded turn, directly up 80W

[Blown Away]

:eek: 18z GFS has first TW into Cat 2/3 heading for SFL.

Sofla has been nailed twice today on seperate runs

Fire up the generator!

[sma10]

I suppose the model will finish with the ridge expanding, sending the system into the Gulf, and allowing the trailing Hurricane to turn back west

[jlauderdal]

:D

:eek: 18z GFS has first TW into Cat 2/3 heading for SFL.

Sofla has been nailed twice today on seperate runs

Fire up the generator!

Its ready, I have a new invertor generator ready to go. The Wilma generator has been sold.

[AnnularCane]

It's not hurricane season until you get the first long-range model of a major into Miami.

[cycloneye]

Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave located near the west coast of Africa is producing
disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions
are expected to be marginally conducive for gradual development of
this system while it moves westward to west-northwestward at 15
to 20 mph across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic during
the early to middle part of next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

[cycloneye]

00:05 UTC discussion.

A tropical wave located near the west coast of Africa along 21W
is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms from 10N to
17N between 17W and 25W. A 1008 mb low pressure is analyzed along
the wave axis near 15N. Environmental conditions are expected to
be marginally conducive for gradual development of this system
while it moves westward to west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph
across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic during the early
to middle part of next week. Currently, this tropical wave has a
low chance of tropical cyclone development over the next five
days.

[SFLcane]

Northern quadrant into Dade and Broward.

[Iceresistance]

Northern quadrant into Dade and Broward.

https://i.postimg.cc/4d9bsq1s/7-AE65-D4-D-D8-E8-4721-9680-F73-E18-FB883-F.png

This would be catastrophic disaster for Southern Florida if it really happened like this.

[cycloneye]

Interesting that some barbs are showing different directions.

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

It's not hurricane season until you get the first long-range model of a major into Miami.

or NYC

[LarryWx]

Interesting that some barbs are showing different directions.

https://i.imgur.com/cYGJe9I.jpg

Satellite pics showing cloud curvature make it appear to me there's likely a weak circulation (surface?) near the CVs. And models like the 18Z GFS have a weak low there now:



The GFS maintains a weak but rather tight circulation and at times even strengthens it some from here all of the way across as it moves WNW, then W, then WSW within the E and C MDR. But the Euro, which has an even weaker and broader circulation, doesn't maintain it for too long.

The next couple of days of satellite pics will be quite interesting to follow to see what happens. We will probably continue to see cloud curvature. However, right now most seem to feel that it it too dry/stable in the E Atlantic for this to develop and that development would have to wait til it gets past 55W or so. Then again, models have been fooled many times.

[cycloneye]

The 00z surface analysis has the wave axis at 23W.

[LarryWx]

The 00z surface analysis has the wave axis at 23W.

https://i.imgur.com/ykMDfVe.jpg

How's the SAL there now?