2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[Blown Away]

Full 18z GFS…

[Spacecoast]

18z GEFS: This shows how fast that 2nd wave relative to the lead wave.

[SFLcane]

The long range steering i am seeing Is worrisome on the gfs.

[AnnularCane]

[url]https://i.postimg.cc/Y9pvRfHD/gfs-mslp-pcpn-watl-fh276-384.gif [/url]

18z GFS is a keeper! Miami, New Orleans, and likely Carolinas all get a major hurricane within a week!

I put that thing on motion on Tropical Tidbits and was disappointed that it stopped where it did and I wouldn't get to see how the eastern one would play out (because you know there will be changes!).

I felt almost let down.

[AJC3]

The long range steering i am seeing Is worrisome on the gfs.

Indeed. Assuming one or both of the waves being talked about pass through (or near) the northern portion of the eastern Hebert Box (with a couple degrees of 20N60W), that ridge to the north looks pretty solid all the way to at least 85W in the Day 6-10 range. Of course, a lot can change between now and then...we'll see if any signs of a weakness developing show up in the models over the next week or so.

[gatorcane]

The long range steering i am seeing Is worrisome on the gfs.

Indeed. Assuming one or both of the waves being talked about pass through (or near) the northern portion of the eastern Hebert Box (with a couple degrees of 20N60W), that ridge to the north looks pretty solid all the way to at least 85W in the Day 6-10 range. Of course, a lot can change between now and then...we'll see if any signs of a weakness developing show up in the models over the next week or so.

It looks solid but just towards the end of the 6-10 day range, today’s global model runs are showing a break in the ridge over the Central Atlantic between the Bermuda High and Azores High

The most likely scenario as far as the two GFS systems is the current wave the NHC is highlighting (the one the 18Z hits South Florida in the eternity range) will not develop possibly staying weak and/or getting absorbed by the east wave while the second (east) wave develops and possibly recurves into the Central Atlantic kindaof like what the 12Z Euro is hinting at but maybe recurving a bit further west than the Euro shows (like the majority of the 12Z EPS members show)

[AJC3]

The long range steering i am seeing Is worrisome on the gfs.

Indeed. Assuming one or both of the waves being talked about pass through (or near) the northern portion of the eastern Hebert Box (with a couple degrees of 20N60W), that ridge to the north looks pretty solid all the way to at least 85W in the Day 6-10 range. Of course, a lot can change between now and then...we'll see if any signs of a weakness developing show up in the models over the next week or so.

It looks solid but just towards the end of the 6-10 day range, today’s global model runs are showing a break in the ridge over the Central Atlantic between the Bermuda High and Azores High

The most likely scenario as far as the two GFS systems is the current wave the NHC is highlighting (the one the 18Z hits South Florida in the eternity range) will not develop possibly staying weak and/or getting absorbed by the east wave while the second wave develops and possibly recurves into the Central Atlantic kindaof like what the 12Z Euro is hinting at but maybe recurving a bit further west than the Euro shows.

Yep....this is why i prefaced my comment with "as long as something can get to near 20N60W..." , since it would be well past the central Atlantic breach in the 500MB ridge. Once a system would get to about 55W, it wouldn't get drawn northward, since northerly mid level flow on the eastern flank of the ridge would prevent that from taking place (In fact, it could actually cause a system in that area to lose a few tenths of latitude). Otherwise, you'd need a trough to develop between 60 and 80W in order to pick a system up, which there's no sign of at the moment.

[blp]

Yep....this is why i prefaced my comment with "as long as something can get to near 20N60W..." , since it would be well past the central Atlantic breach in the 500MB ridge. Once a system would get to about 55W, it wouldn't get drawn northward, since northerly mid level flow on the eastern flank of the ridge would prevent that from taking place (In fact, it could actually cause a system in that area to lose a few tenths of latitude). Otherwise, you'd need a trough to develop between 60 and 80W in order to pick a system up, which there's no sign of at the moment.

It's a close call. Let's see how deep it is as it develops in the MDR. The models have underestimated the hostile conditions. If its more shallow it will probably miss that gap like the first wave. The gap fills in pretty quick.

[skyline385]

ICON also showing the first system now although it's much southwards than GFS, not sure if it's from the same wave.

[Hurricaneman]

The area in west Africa seems to be slower this run in the 0zGFS

[LarryWx]

The 0Z UKMET has no TC through the run.

[Hurricaneman]

Looks like the GFS through 10 days is weaker this run, may mean very little as it seems to be caught in the TUTT but the TUTT is moving away by that time, may allow for strengthening later in the run

[Category5Kaiju]

Looks like we've got yet another case of bipolar model swinging going on now, with models trying to adjust to what should be changing conditions in the Atlantic toward a more favorable state. Popcorn ready, I am willing to bet that if the 0z GFS shows nothing that the 6z GFS will show a major Miami strike

[Hurricaneman]

Looks like we've got yet another case of bipolar model swinging going on now, with models trying to adjust to what should be changing conditions in the Atlantic toward a more favorable state. Popcorn ready, I am willing to bet that if the 0z GFS shows nothing that the 6z GFS will show a major Miami strike

Basically gets stuck in an ULL this run causing little development and lots of shear

[skyline385]

And the GFS does it again, went from two majors and multiple landfalls into almost nothing in a single run

[Hammy]

Looks like the models are adjusting to possibly having moved the favorable signal into the Atlantic too quickly. Likewise the CMC has trended further south and west with the Gulf system.

[AtlanticWind]

Now the gfs has nothing thru Sept 6th, that would seem almost impossible except
in the most hostile el nino years.

Thats why looking past 4 or 5 days in models is kinda worthless ( but fun I guess)

[AutoPenalti]

likely a fluke run, waiting for 06z

[weeniepatrol]

Please use ensembles guys. 0z GEFS most active run yet

[Cpv17]

Please use ensembles guys. 0z GEFS most active run yet

https://imgur.com/i33qFkv

Yep, exactly! Anything past 5 days I always look at the ensembles.