2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[MarioProtVI]

Looks like the models are adjusting to possibly having moved the favorable signal into the Atlantic too quickly. Likewise the CMC has trended further south and west with the Gulf system.

At this rate the models are going I would incline to think conditions won’t improve till we’re already at the peak..

[Hammy]

Looks like the models are adjusting to possibly having moved the favorable signal into the Atlantic too quickly. Likewise the CMC has trended further south and west with the Gulf system.

At this rate the models are going I would incline to think conditions won’t improve till we’re already at the peak..

My thinking has been the start of September for some time. Models (global and CFS alike) have been pushing back development but it's being pushed back less and less each time it does. Eventually it'll catch up.

[MHC Tracking]

[cycloneye]

Posting almost the whole 06z GFS run of long range for the record and entretainment of the wave behind the NHC lemon one. This model is very inconstitent.

[USTropics]

Speaking entirely on genesis, this wave has more of my interest then the other waves the GFS was modeling as developing. The main issue was the lack of consistent ensemble support from even the GFS ensembles, let alone any other model guidance support. This time, ensembles from both the GFS and ECMWF have consistently highlighted this area over the past few days:

GFS ensembles:


ECMWF ensembles:

[gatorcane]

Interesting that while the GFS and ECMWF continue to flail with inconsistency, the CMC has been consistently showing nothing in the MDR. Thinking the GFS has replaced the CMC as being the model which blows up everything.

[BobHarlem]

Interesting drop off from yesterday's 18z. There's still something faint in the GFS a week from now in the Gulf, the first wave off Africa falls apart, but the second one makes it all the way across. Someone else mentioned in the 18z run that the steering currents pushing things that far west is what's more concerning than the crazy tracks, and I tend to agree too. I suspect tracks/storms to vary wildly through the first part of this week, but by the end of the week we'll be tracking something. Just watching the gulf too in case something slips in there (GFS slight signal and Canadian still shows it, albeit in different parts of the Gulf).

[Cachondo23]

Posting almost the whole 06z GFS run of long range for the record and entretainment of the wave behind the NHC lemon one. This model is very inconstitent.

https://i.imgur.com/yLyFxE2.gif

https://i.imgur.com/8O9yp1X.gif

Very long range and models will change every run but interesting track. Irma/Maria vibes coming in. 2017 was a unique year. We will see.

[Blown Away]

GFS has been consistently showing favorable conditions in the W Atlantic basin. Track is all over, which should be expected in +240 range.

06z raked the entire GA chain and maintained hurricane status, this area has to be watched closely. IMO a classic CV hurricane is going to come from this.

06z GFS also showed first TW going over all the GA which is likely why it didn’t develop. 00z Euro shows the first wave starting to develop in SE Bahamas.

Interesting how both GFS/Euro struggling to handle both waves catching each other.

[skyline385]

Please use ensembles guys. 0z GEFS most active run yet

https://imgur.com/i33qFkv

Well we have two waves in the Atlantic without a clear defined center interacting with each other while trying to develop. Any model whether deterministic or ensemble is going to struggle with it and because of that, ensembles have been just as clueless as well. Some runs have more activity in the open Atlantic while some seem to favour the West Atlantic. And while 0Z GEFS had a good amount of activity, 06Z GEFS came out with a much lower development for the waves. So honestly not much we can do right except to wait. The one thing ensembles do suggest is that the environment has very likely become favorable for development.

[Spacecoast]

Please use ensembles guys. 0z GEFS most active run yet

https://imgur.com/i33qFkv

Well we have two waves in the Atlantic without a clear defined center interacting with each other while trying to develop. Any model whether deterministic or ensemble is going to struggle with it and because of that, ensembles have been just as clueless as well. Some runs have more activity in the open Atlantic while some seem to favour the West Atlantic. And while 0Z GEFS had a good amount of activity, 06Z GEFS came out with a much lower development for the waves. So honestly not much we can do right except to wait. The one thing ensembles do suggest is that the environment has very likely become favorable for development.

Why is it that the ensembles (both EPS & GEFS), seem to find a break in the ridge between 45-55W, while their operational (ECMF & GFS) don't see it, and continue west?

Usually the ensemble mean track doesn't differ that much from operational track.

[skyline385]

Please use ensembles guys. 0z GEFS most active run yet

https://imgur.com/i33qFkv

Well we have two waves in the Atlantic without a clear defined center interacting with each other while trying to develop. Any model whether deterministic or ensemble is going to struggle with it and because of that, ensembles have been just as clueless as well. Some runs have more activity in the open Atlantic while some seem to favour the West Atlantic. And while 0Z GEFS had a good amount of activity, 06Z GEFS came out with a much lower development for the waves. So honestly not much we can do right except to wait. The one thing ensembles do suggest is that the environment has very likely become favorable for development.

Why is it that the ensembles (both EPS & GEFS), seem to find a break in the ridge between 45-55W, while their operational (ECMF & GFS) don't see it, and continue west?

Usually the ensemble mean track doesn't differ that much from operational track.

Typically the ensembles start agreeing once we have a well defined center but right now, there are two waves competing which other to form their own centers which leaves a host of possibilities open. Which will be the first one to form a center, how much it will intensify and how it will affect the other one, just a whole lot of stuff going on for ensembles to agree on. Most of the solutions which seem to find a break in the ridge are the ones which RI in the MDR and hence are able to push through before the ridge builds up I think but very hard to say without looking at those members specifically.

[BobHarlem]

so far GFS 12z coming in stronger than 6z, cmc takes it weak (but discernible, which is more than 0z had) into the Bahamas.

[skyline385]

so far GFS 12z coming in stronger than 6z

It started off nicely but this isn't looking good at all

EDIT: Classic GFS, system continues to RI while being surrounded by dry air on all sides

[Hurricaneman]

so far GFS 12z coming in stronger than 6z

It started off nicely but this isn't looking good at all

EDIT: Classic GFS, system continues to RI while being surrounded by dry air on all sides

https://i.imgur.com/HnU7M1J.png

That 998 system is not this system, that’s the system over west Africa. This system is the wave by the lesser Antilles

[NotSparta]

so far GFS 12z coming in stronger than 6z

It started off nicely but this isn't looking good at all

EDIT: Classic GFS, system continues to RI while being surrounded by dry air on all sides

https://i.imgur.com/HnU7M1J.png

It doesn't matter if there's dry air, if the system has a core and shear is low it's usually fine unless there's an EWRC. Otherwise, how would you get dry air into the storm?

[lsuhurricane]

Near exact location and strength compared to 06z for the second wave rolling off of Africa on the 12z GFS. . Cat 2/3 near the Greater Antilles.

Dangerous steering on both. Almost uncanny how similar the runs are, even at the 360hr mark.

[Blown Away]

12z GFS continues showing a MH into NE Caribbean.

[cycloneye]

Moved a few posts from the Tropical Wave near Cabo Verde thread to here as what GFS is showing is wave now inside Africa.

[skyline385]

so far GFS 12z coming in stronger than 6z

It started off nicely but this isn't looking good at all

EDIT: Classic GFS, system continues to RI while being surrounded by dry air on all sides

https://i.imgur.com/HnU7M1J.png

It doesn't matter if there's dry air, if the system has a core and shear is low it's usually fine unless there's an EWRC. Otherwise, how would you get dry air into the storm?

I agree for a well developed system which has a core, but look at the screenshot I posted above. The system was weak with dry air being sucked into it through the south, it still somehow manages to completely close itself off and build a core strong enough to prevent any dry air intrusion on all quadrants while continuing to RI into a major. That to me seems a little too much...