2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[Spacecoast]

12z GFS

[lsuhurricane]

Very intense ensemble support on the 12z GEFS. Note the blue high pressure anomalies anchored around FL and to the east. Should keep these moving to the west in the short term.

[SconnieCane]

12z GFS
[url]https://i.ibb.co/bbyvpgh/ec5.gif [/url]

Ivan, is that you? (Tracks quite a bit further north as it enters the Caribbean, but still ends up splitting the goalposts between Cuba and the Yucatan). Ultimate weenie track and very dangerous.

[LarryWx]

The 12z UKMET (out to 144) has no TC in the Atlantic basin.

[Blown Away]

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2022082112/gfs-ememb_lowlocs_atl_46.png

Very intense ensemble support on the 12z GEFS. Note the blue high pressure anomalies anchored around FL and to the east. Should keep these moving to the west in the short term.

The ensembles compared to the operational show big discrepancy in forward speed. The ensembles map is at 270 hrs and operational was a few hundred miles E of Caribbean at 270 hours. The takeaway is GFS continues showing very favorable conditions after @60W.

[Cpv17]

12z GFS
[url]https://i.ibb.co/bbyvpgh/ec5.gif [/url]

That looks Mexico or South Texas bound.

[wxman57]

Major hurricane to strike Houston/Galveston Sept. 8th. No doubt about it, the 12Z GFS is always right at 384 hrs. Ridge to the north weakening a little. Yep, right to Houston. Going fill up my four 5-gal gas cans now and buy all the water in Kroger.

[Blown Away]

Major hurricane to strike Houston/Galveston Sept. 8th. No doubt about it, the 12Z GFS is always right at 384 hrs. Ridge to the north weakening a little. Yep, right to Houston. Going fill up my four 5-gal gas cans now and buy all the water in Kroger.

Here it comes. Strengthening as it passes through NE Caribbean and seems likely it would have continued getting stronger if it had passed N or S of GA on its way to 57’s house.

[SoupBone]

Major hurricane to strike Houston/Galveston Sept. 8th. No doubt about it, the 12Z GFS is always right at 384 hrs. Ridge to the north weakening a little. Yep, right to Houston. Going fill up my four 5-gal gas cans now and buy all the water in Kroger.

Is that spawning of the central American wave?

[Spacecoast]

12z GEFS:


12z EC Genesis:

[Cpv17]

12z GEFS:
[url]https://i.ibb.co/qkT4dWV/ec6.gif [/url]

I feel like it could come in even further sw and be a Caribbean cruiser.

[Cat5James]

12z GEFS:
[url]https://i.ibb.co/qkT4dWV/ec6.gif [/url]

I feel like it could come in even further sw and be a Caribbean cruiser.

Or adjust north since that is 3 southern adjustments in a row…

[Cpv17]

12z GEFS:
[url]https://i.ibb.co/qkT4dWV/ec6.gif [/url]

I feel like it could come in even further sw and be a Caribbean cruiser.

Or adjust north since that is 3 southern adjustments in a row…

Yeah, I mean it’s possible for sure but I just feel like climo favors the southern and western tracks for late August.

[Cat5James]

I feel like it could come in even further sw and be a Caribbean cruiser.

Or adjust north since that is 3 southern adjustments in a row…

Yeah, I mean it’s possible for sure but I just feel like climo favors the southern and western tracks for late August.

Agreed. I’m just expecting to see a bit of the “windshield wiper” effect.

[Blown Away]

12z Euro

[skyline385]

12Z EPS very bullish, same for GEFS






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[Teban54]

12z Euro suddenly has a third TC towards the end of this run, which gets too close to the second TC. Seems bogus, as the third wave already becomes a 1002mb TC before exiting Africa. I know the Euro ensembles have such a bias, but it's the first time the operational shows it this season.

[Blown Away]

I feel like it could come in even further sw and be a Caribbean cruiser.

Or adjust north since that is 3 southern adjustments in a row…

Yeah, I mean it’s possible for sure but I just feel like climo favors the southern and western tracks for late August.

That far out all options are on the table. For now most of the GFS/Euro ensembles actually go N of the islands and many recurve.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/dmorris9661/status/1561387631946219520

[LarryWx]

I know it is from a wave west of the one now just west of the CVs and may be the one recently near 40W: ICON keeps developing a low just E of the L Antilles that I can't find on any of the other models. Anyone else notice this?