ATL: Ex INVEST 90L - Discussion

[Nancy Smar]

AL902022 - INVEST
Synoptic Time Latitude Longitude Intensity
2022-08-22 12:00 16.2 -29.3 25

https://rammb-data.cira.colostate.edu/tc_realtime/storm.asp?storm_identifier=al902022

https://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/ATCF/NHC/

[cycloneye]

[ElectricStorm]

This one will need to be watched once it gets further west. Will probably stay weak until then

[Nancy Smar]

AL, 90, 2022082212, , BEST, 0, 162N, 293W, 25, 1010, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 150, 30, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 017, SPAWNINVEST, al782022 to al902022,

[SFLcane]

AL, 90, 2022082212, , BEST, 0, 162N, 293W, 25, 1010, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 150, 30, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 017, SPAWNINVEST, al782022 to al902022,

Were is this?

https://t.co/10RhJ5aXkW

[Nancy Smar]

AL, 90, 2022082212, , BEST, 0, 162N, 293W, 25, 1010, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 150, 30, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 017, SPAWNINVEST, al782022 to al902022,

Were is this?

https://t.co/10RhJ5aXkW

https://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/ATCF/NHC/bal902022.dat

[SFLcane]

AL, 90, 2022082212, , BEST, 0, 162N, 293W, 25, 1010, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 150, 30, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 017, SPAWNINVEST, al782022 to al902022,

Were is this?

https://t.co/10RhJ5aXkW

https://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/ATCF/NHC/bal902022.dat

Hmmm OK. I don't see SHIPS data yet though.

[cycloneye]

What I see is FNMOC has it but ATCF still does not and that is why there are no SHIP plots yet.

[cycloneye]

Were is this?

https://t.co/10RhJ5aXkW

https://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/ATCF/NHC/bal902022.dat

Hmmm OK. I don't see SHIPS data yet though.

Here is the link from where Nancy got it. Bookmark it.

https://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/ATCF/NHC/

[SFLcane]

https://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/ATCF/NHC/bal902022.dat

Hmmm OK. I don't see SHIPS data yet though.

Here is the link from where Nancy got it. Bookmark it.

https://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/ATCF/NHC/

Yeah saw it there but still not on NHC ftp.

[LarryWx]

Look out, this low's circ/convection centered on 16N, 30W, is so far holding off the nearby SAL and has held on well past DMAX, This is about as impressive as anything in the MDR seen since what lead to Bonnie in late June:

[cycloneye]

SFLCane ATCF now is up so SHIP will run it's first plots.

AL, 90, 2022082212, , BEST, 0, 162N, 293W, 25, 1010, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 150, 30, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 017, SPAWNINVEST, al782022 to al902022,

https://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/btk/?C=M;O=D

[SoupBone]

Yeah this one might get us to a name before the month's end, unfortunately. It seems that conditions aren't that horrible, besides SAL in its way.

[SFLcane]

Haircut coming at Day 4.

[SFLcane]

Look out, this low's circ/convection centered on 16N, 30W, is so far holding off the nearby SAL and has held on well past DMAX, This is about as impressive as anything in the MDR seen since what lead to Bonnie in late June:

https://i.imgur.com/CwJKjmI.jpg

Yeah we'll see if it persists.

[Kingarabian]

That TUTT could end up being a bad thing if all it does is delay development until this is close to land, and the ridge builds back.

[cycloneye]

[Sciencerocks]

[Steve H.]

It’s starting to get that look . It looks like this should become Danielle .

[aspen]

If it develops/tracks north of the GAs, we could have a big problem. Look at the extent of 29.5-30C SSTs in the region. I don't recall 2020 or 2021 having 30C SSTs extending all the way to 30N, or that much near Bermuda. Lots of prime real estate for a system to RI dangerously close to land if other conditions are okay, and most recent runs have sent 90L right into this area.