2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

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2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#1861 Postby skyline385 » Mon Aug 22, 2022 11:02 am

Kingarabian wrote:There's also another wave/disturbance to keep an eye on. It's currently near 9.5N/54.5W. ICON is developing it and showing it threatening PR. GFS also has it briefly.

Image

That ICON run is very similar to a couple of the 06Z GEFS ensemble members which had a system crossing near the keys into the Gulf.

Also Papin commented that the cold surge from SA which is causing a CCKW to spin up the vorticity isn’t modelled accurately on the GFS in particular so it could not be capturing it correctly.

 https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1561514082666041344





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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#1862 Postby aspen » Mon Aug 22, 2022 11:38 am

12z GFS doesn’t develop that second system because it has a multi-wave pile up around the Cape Verde islands and can’t figure out which wave is gonna become anything.
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#1863 Postby AutoPenalti » Mon Aug 22, 2022 11:45 am

GFS drops the wave because of a traffic jam, nice.
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Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)

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2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#1864 Postby skyline385 » Mon Aug 22, 2022 11:51 am

Category5Kaiju wrote:
Stormcenter wrote:I hope I’m 100% wrong but I’m afraid some of
us will look back on these posts complaining about
the lack of activity and wish we hadn’t complained.
It’s coming sooner than later.


I have to concur here; something definitely feels off, but at the same time, I simply cannot wrap my head around what the actual chances are that this season ends up, for instance, not delivering hurricanes or named storms for that matter. What we do know for certain is that the MDR is warm, there is a La Nina, UOHC levels in the western part of the basin are sky high, and wind shear is not naggingly bad. From what I can logically assume, something's gotta give or form eventually. Trackers depend on climatology and the ASO peak month warnings exist for a reason :D

This season may possibly under perform for reasons we don’t know yet but there is no way that we end without a hurricane on the list. Even 2013 didn’t bust that hard and there was a legit reason for its bust then. I am still expecting that we end up around 140 ACE.


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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#1865 Postby skyline385 » Mon Aug 22, 2022 11:54 am

As i typed my post above, GFS pushed back the TCG of the second wave again lol.

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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#1866 Postby SFLcane » Mon Aug 22, 2022 12:05 pm

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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#1867 Postby LarryWx » Mon Aug 22, 2022 12:17 pm

The 12Z UKMET is still another run with no TC. But keep in mind that it is often conservative and thus often misses genesis similar to the Euro.
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#1868 Postby skyline385 » Mon Aug 22, 2022 12:20 pm

The VP plot shows the perfect setup right now, very intriguing how this is still not enough.

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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#1869 Postby Category5Kaiju » Mon Aug 22, 2022 12:26 pm

skyline385 wrote:The VP plot shows the perfect setup right now, very intriguing how this is still not enough.

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20220822/d778f14db53de63502c6f3b846484538.jpg


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If I am not mistaken, the MJO has just left the null phase and is entering the 1/2 zone; I wonder if there's some sort of delay that may occur here. Also I think that all of that activity the EPAC had so far may have had some lingering negative effects on the Atlantic, so my guess is we might see the consequences of this VP setup later this week going into next and that it's not just an automatic, occurs-over-a-span-of-one-day thing
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#1870 Postby aspen » Mon Aug 22, 2022 12:30 pm

skyline385 wrote:As i typed my post above, GFS pushed back the TCG of the second wave again lol.

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20220822/83bf7f9828b146546ce71df8784bf731.jpg


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That’s actually a merger of two waves after the second wave, whose vorticity can be faintly seen at 40W @186hrs. The monsoon trough is so active and full of waves that nothing can really become dominant for a while.
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#1871 Postby skyline385 » Mon Aug 22, 2022 12:43 pm

aspen wrote:
skyline385 wrote:As i typed my post above, GFS pushed back the TCG of the second wave again lol.

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20220822/83bf7f9828b146546ce71df8784bf731.jpg


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That’s actually a merger of two waves after the second wave, whose vorticity can be faintly seen at 40W @186hrs. The monsoon trough is so active and full of waves that nothing can really become dominant for a while.

That sounds like the same problem we had in 2020.


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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#1872 Postby aspen » Mon Aug 22, 2022 1:13 pm

It would be quite something if the ICON is right about that ECar system in a few days and no other model catches on. I can’t help but find some similarities between the ICON’s system and a certain D storm from a few years ago. Similar time frame, similar track despite different origins.
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#1873 Postby AJC3 » Mon Aug 22, 2022 1:47 pm

Let's stay on topic, folks. Seasonal discussions have their own thread.
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#1874 Postby skyline385 » Mon Aug 22, 2022 1:56 pm

Euro not showing much development of the first wave now. Showing a circulation leaving Africa but that’s the third wave now?

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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#1875 Postby Blown Away » Mon Aug 22, 2022 2:24 pm

skyline385 wrote:Euro not showing much development of the first wave now. Showing a circulation leaving Africa but that’s the third wave now?

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20220822/c3a5c71c42a6806f252134e4b4a5c508.jpg

12z Euro running now at @96 hrs, I think the real deepening begins @144 hrs.

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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#1876 Postby wxman57 » Mon Aug 22, 2022 2:26 pm

skyline385 wrote:
Kingarabian wrote:There's also another wave/disturbance to keep an eye on. It's currently near 9.5N/54.5W. ICON is developing it and showing it threatening PR. GFS also has it briefly.

https://i.imgur.com/PiMiOlG.png

That ICON run is very similar to a couple of the 06Z GEFS ensemble members which had a system crossing near the keys into the Gulf.

Also Papin commented that the cold surge from SA which is causing a CCKW to spin up the vorticity isn’t modeled accurately on the GFS in particular so it could not be capturing it correctly.

https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1561514082666041344


The 12Z ICON appears to be developing something that moves northward off the coast of Suriname tonight, not any wave to the east.
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#1877 Postby BobHarlem » Mon Aug 22, 2022 2:27 pm

Blown Away wrote:
skyline385 wrote:Euro not showing much development of the first wave now. Showing a circulation leaving Africa but that’s the third wave now?

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20220822/c3a5c71c42a6806f252134e4b4a5c508.jpg

12z Euro running now at @96 hrs, I think the real deepening begins @144 hrs.

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Last frame of euro is here, doesn't really deepen the waves, the deep one on here far east is the 3rd wave, (1st being 90L, 2nd being the one near africa, 3rd being behind that) EC Fast is the "old" Euro that only had 24 hour increments, its quicker to show up complete on tidbits for the impatient.
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#1878 Postby LarryWx » Mon Aug 22, 2022 2:54 pm

wxman57 wrote:
skyline385 wrote:
Kingarabian wrote:There's also another wave/disturbance to keep an eye on. It's currently near 9.5N/54.5W. ICON is developing it and showing it threatening PR. GFS also has it briefly.

https://i.imgur.com/PiMiOlG.png

That ICON run is very similar to a couple of the 06Z GEFS ensemble members which had a system crossing near the keys into the Gulf.

Also Papin commented that the cold surge from SA which is causing a CCKW to spin up the vorticity isn’t modeled accurately on the GFS in particular so it could not be capturing it correctly.

https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1561514082666041344


The 12Z ICON appears to be developing something that moves northward off the coast of Suriname tonight, not any wave to the east.


1. Looking back at archives, I couldn't find even one analog of a TS+ originating from a disturbance coming from anywhere near Suriname. I had already checked this a few days ago when a GEFS run was doing something similar with a good number of members.

2. 12Z JMA has a surface low near the CVs at 192 hours fwiw.
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#1879 Postby skyline385 » Mon Aug 22, 2022 3:11 pm

wxman57 wrote:
skyline385 wrote:
Kingarabian wrote:There's also another wave/disturbance to keep an eye on. It's currently near 9.5N/54.5W. ICON is developing it and showing it threatening PR. GFS also has it briefly.

https://i.imgur.com/PiMiOlG.png

That ICON run is very similar to a couple of the 06Z GEFS ensemble members which had a system crossing near the keys into the Gulf.

Also Papin commented that the cold surge from SA which is causing a CCKW to spin up the vorticity isn’t modeled accurately on the GFS in particular so it could not be capturing it correctly.

https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1561514082666041344


The 12Z ICON appears to be developing something that moves northward off the coast of Suriname tonight, not any wave to the east.

Yea that’s why i posted the Papin tweet. He says it’s forming as a result of the cold surge through SA resulting in a CCKW.


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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#1880 Postby aspen » Mon Aug 22, 2022 4:27 pm

HWRF-P for 90L has the ICON's ECar storm. Just a weak low on this run, but it's still something worth noting.
Image
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