aspen wrote:When in 2013 did it become apparent that something was off and the season was going to bust? Indicators have been at least somewhat favorable (SSTA configuration, MJO/VP forcing, etc) all the way until now, despite other newly emerging aspects like excessive SAL for this time of the year and the potential for a storm-free August.
Also, a crazy idea as to what’s going on: what if the +AMO era ended in October 2021 and now the Atlantic is in a long-lasting suppressed base state?
Personally I started wondering around mid-August, when the models showed two stronger storms developing in the MDR and Gulf (and we're talking within 72-96 hour timeframe, not the 'fantasy range' we're seeing this year) and these systems just petered out--one became Erin (fairly weak) and the other succumbed to a fall-like north-south oriented cold front (which also brought temps in the mid-60s for highs for two days in Georgia)
Two things later made it very clear though--in late August, we finally had a couple of strong waves that were expected to emerge. Low latitude, closed-low (as opposed to this year's monsoonal mess) but the steering currents seemed almost nonexistent and they couldn't even exit into the Atlantic, instead dissipating inland just on the coast. The other was the winter-esque 500mb lows we were seeing over the lower latitudes of the Atlantic (15-20N) in which Humberto was steered almost straight north.
It's kind of interesting 2013 was stuck in a springtime pattern, but now I wonder, is something similar, but opposite, happening--the Atlantic now seems perpetually stuck in June/early July pattern while the western basin is stuck in an El Nino like state (complete with large moisture flow over the Southeastern US) courtesy of the warm band along the equatorial East Pacific
That said, as a large part of the problem right now is the monsoon trough being farther north than it should be, it's bringing these waves closer to the drier air of the subtropics and the TUTT--but this is almost assured to drop south as the seasons change so while we could see a storm-free August, at the moment I feel if anything it's merely an extension of June conditions until the monsoon trough finally drops farther south.
Something else worth noting, the CFS since mid-July has been pushing back the switch flip--but it's pushing it back less and less each week. Two weeks ago it was consistently showing around August 20, last week it was consistently showing August 25, now it's showing August 27. Based on this I would say we'll see some development around Aug 28-Sep 1 and a possibly slower but steady uptick after as the waves can come off further south, though with the TUTT being where it's at we'll probably see a lot of weaker systems/recurves as with 2000.
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. For some reason, while the sample size is small, as we're seeing this year, what if third year La Ninas are indeed inherently slower than first/second year La Ninas?
