ATL: INVEST 90L - Models

[cycloneye]

[sma10]

Euro ensembles showing a split to recurve vs. a due west track towards Cuba and South FL. Pretty even split.

WOuld think that this split displays the confidence (or lackthereof) of the trough eroding the ridge.

Does the 12z EPS even show any development from its members?

Yes, 6 of ~51 get below 1,000 mb:

Strongest 974, 984, 987..so looks like 3 Hs vs 4 Hs on 0Z and 3 Hs on yesterday's 12Z

Hmm, interesting. I had blindly assumed that the strongest members were sharp recurves. But that is not the case

[aspen]

At first 90L looked pretty good on the 12z HWRF's simulated IR filter. It does look like it's in those beginning days of development.


But switch over to the HWRF-P, and the second wave is right behind 90L and probably about to swallow it.

[Nimbus]

Euro ensembles showing a split to recurve vs. a due west track towards Cuba and South FL. Pretty even split.

WOuld think that this split displays the confidence (or lackthereof) of the trough eroding the ridge.

Euro ensembles are working off current data so it hasn't decided whether the northeast or southwest circulation will develop yet. Its still pretty dry out there so maybe neither develops. Later runs should favor southern latitude tracks if the dry air trend continues. But September?

[Spacecoast]

12z ECMF Genesis:

[sma10]

18z GFS is a bit funny. It has a storm forming south of Cuba, moving North just barely east of SE FL.

But I don't think it's our wave? It looks more like its genesis is the system that ICON has been touting?

[cycloneye]

18z GFS is a bit funny. It has a storm forming south of Cuba, moving North just barely east of SE FL.

But I don't think it's our wave? It looks more like its genesis is the system that ICON has been touting?

Combination of both SA one and 90L and yes.

[Kingarabian]

18z GFS seems to combine this with another system that came off of SA.

[Blown Away]

18z GFS is a bit funny. It has a storm forming south of Cuba, moving North just barely east of SE FL.

But I don't think it's our wave? It looks more like its genesis is the system that ICON has been touting?

Combination of both SA one and 90L and yes.

Whatever the combo is has generated some big ensemble hurricanes over the past week.

[SconnieCane]

18z GFS is a bit funny. It has a storm forming south of Cuba, moving North just barely east of SE FL.

But I don't think it's our wave? It looks more like its genesis is the system that ICON has been touting?

Combination of both SA one and 90L and yes.

Whatever the combo is has generated some big ensemble hurricanes over the past week.

I feel like this is one of those situations where there are so many moving parts we won't have an idea of what's going to happen until within 3 days, maybe even less. Everything from no development to a major hurricane is on the table, with the added uncertainty of just how bizarrely the Atlantic has behaved especially as we move deeper into what should be peak season.

[Teban54]

0z HWRF a bit stronger, down to 996 mb at hour 63 before weakening. Also shows the SA system and the next MDR wave.

Strongest run of any model in the near term so far... HWRF gonna HWRF lol.

[Blown Away]

06z