ATL: Ex INVEST 90L - Discussion

[cycloneye]

Did anyone else notice a second spin near 14N, 38W? That is several hundred miles west of 90L's spin/wave.

Yes indeed. To the lower left of the animation of the visible-shortwave channel.

[LarryWx]

Did anyone else notice a second spin near 14N, 38W? That is several hundred miles west of 90L's spin/wave.

Yes indeed. To the lower left of the animation of the visible-shortwave channel.

https://i.imgur.com/IIGrHhm.gif

Is it possible that this second spin now near 38W is being developed on any model runs/by any ensemble members? Anyone know?

[skyline385]

Not looking good for 90L up ahead

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1561897233909424128

[St0rmTh0r]

If it develops/tracks north of the GAs, we could have a big problem. Look at the extent of 29.5-30C SSTs in the region. I don't recall 2020 or 2021 having 30C SSTs extending all the way to 30N, or that much near Bermuda. Lots of prime real estate for a system to RI dangerously close to land if other conditions are okay, and most recent runs have sent 90L right into this area.
https://i.imgur.com/q6zCQOZ.png

Bahamas are boiling, classic setup for a big Florida storm this year im afraid.

You could boil the ocean and that wouldn't make more hurricanes. Water has been quite warm all summer, but no hurricanes. If the atmosphere is not favorable, then SSTs don't matter. West Pacific has been dead, too. No typhoons since July 2. Warm water doesn't generate hurricanes. That said, I guarantee that 90L will develop because Labor Day weekend is coming.

not to go against what youre saying but what about a boiling pot of water? Cant get that from cold water?

[St0rmTh0r]

Bahamas are boiling, classic setup for a big Florida storm this year im afraid.

You could boil the ocean and that wouldn't make more hurricanes. Water has been quite warm all summer, but no hurricanes. If the atmosphere is not favorable, then SSTs don't matter. West Pacific has been dead, too. No typhoons since July 2. Warm water doesn't generate hurricanes. That said, I guarantee that 90L will develop because Labor Day weekend is coming.

not to go against what youre saying but im sure if the ocean was boiled the entire atmosphere would be overflowing with convection

[LarryWx]

Considering how it looked at this time yesterday and that we're approaching DMAX where it is, this is currently looking pretty anemic.

[Kingarabian]

Did anyone else notice a second spin near 14N, 38W? That is several hundred miles west of 90L's spin/wave.

Yes indeed. To the lower left of the animation of the visible-shortwave channel.

https://i.imgur.com/IIGrHhm.gif

Is it possible that this second spin now near 38W is being developed on any model runs/by any ensemble members? Anyone know?

Last week, the GFS was showing competing vort's in regards to this wave. This is probably it.

[Teban54]

Considering how it looked at this time yesterday and that we're approaching DMIN where it is, this is currently looking pretty anemic.

Considering models are in good agreement that it won't develop until at least north of the islands, this doesn't seem surprising.

[Blown Away]

NHC has the 2am yellow "X" around 16N/36W. Clear mid level circulation around 14.5N/39W. Scattered convection popping this morning, but still very disorganized.

[Blown Away]

90L giving us a little 0% pulse...

[wxman57]

You could boil the ocean and that wouldn't make more hurricanes. Water has been quite warm all summer, but no hurricanes. If the atmosphere is not favorable, then SSTs don't matter. West Pacific has been dead, too. No typhoons since July 2. Warm water doesn't generate hurricanes. That said, I guarantee that 90L will develop because Labor Day weekend is coming.

not to go against what youre saying but im sure if the ocean was boiled the entire atmosphere would be overflowing with convection

That would not matter if wind shear is too high for development. A warm ocean can only contribute to the intensity of a tropical cyclone, it cannot generate one.

[cycloneye]

They are down to 14.5N at 12z.

AL, 90, 2022082312, , BEST, 0, 145N, 365W, 20, 1010, DB

[LarryWx]

NHC TWO down to 0%/10% as of 8AM EDT after being as high as 10%/30% yesterday. Continuing to look more anemic to me vs early yesterday morning when there was a ball of convection near a circulation center at DMAX. DMAX early this morning was very unimpressive. Apparently that nearby SAL is close enough to help to keep this in check:


Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Tue Aug 23 2022

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Central Tropical Atlantic:
Shower activity remains minimal in association with a tropical
wave located several hundred miles west of the Cabo Verde Islands.
Development, if any, of this system is expected to be slow to occur
during the next several days while the system moves westward to
west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph across the tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

[Hurricane Mike]

This one might well be the wave that moistens the Central Atlantic to allow upcoming waves a better environment.

[Iceresistance]

Goodbye

1. Central Tropical Atlantic:
Shower activity remains minimal in association with a tropical
wave located several hundred miles west of the Cabo Verde Islands.
Further development of this system is not expected during the next
several days while the system moves westward to west-northwestward
at 10 to 15 mph across the tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent.

[AnnularCane]

Development not expected during the next several days...but what about after that?