2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[skyline385]

This GFS run is pretty hilarious, the SA system just decides to swerve to the left to avoid slamming into DR and then it jumps north again to cut right between Cuba and Hispaniola

[lsuhurricane]

This GFS run is pretty hilarious, the SA system just decides to swerve to the left to avoid slamming into DR and then it jumps north again to cut right between Cuba and Hispaniola

Yeah, that hard right turn is mighty questionable for late August.

[skyline385]

This GFS run is pretty hilarious, the SA system just decides to swerve to the left to avoid slamming into DR and then it jumps north again to cut right between Cuba and Hispaniola

Yeah, that hard right turn is mighty questionable for late August.

Yea its getting pulled by a trough from the Caribbean, thats like October climo

[sma10]

This image shows something near Florida on the GFS Trying to get together, this actually comes from that South American cold surge feedback that the Icon is picking up, not the waves, although the first wave actually may catch up to this, it's really odd. I'm wondering if the icon possibility needs a lemon since it's only a 4 or 5 days out.

https://i.imgur.com/Cqnew3s.gif

https://i.imgur.com/Jmzusyx.gif

It is always in the eternity range on the GFS it seems. Need to see it under a week (168 hours) and preferably under 5 days (120 hours).

Well, fwiw, it does now show the SA system in the Caribbean under 5 days

[AutoPenalti]

what the hell GFS, that’s quite the front for September…

[skyline385]

GFS doing GFS things, the system is just dodging everything

[sma10]

This run looks like an Oct or even NOV type of track. Weird.

Is the atmosphere broken?

[Teban54]

0z Euro continues to favor the "third wave" that emerges on 8/30, ending the run at 986mb. It's hard not to get skeptical after all models have been pushing back development for each wave.

[SouthFLTropics]

Looking at this mornings GFS and it sure has a lot going on. There is 90L, and then two waves behind 90L. But the real fly in the ointment continues to be this player off of South America that rolls into the Eastern Caribbean. A lot of different vortexes competing and there is only so much ocean. I don’t think that any of these current systems are spaced far enough apart for the models to get a decent handle on them.

[Slimbodine]

Feels like we have been seeing the flip just around the corner for days now so I went and compared to previous runs. And the results don't really look good. Check out today's EPS and GEFS a week out from that a few days ago, they are essentially the same. It seems even the ensembles have been constantly pushing back on the development for a few days now which is far from ideal. This is in addition to them constantly shifting around the source of development and the fact that ensembles a week out close to peak season and with tropical forcing should not look this barren.
https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20220823/7163dcc308f2ce4a4aee12334261d1c6.jpg
https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20220823/9e5ae82322ed95ecdc7a006ea8cc6253.jpg
https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20220823/d60de0baa4ad844e765ff20e597f1771.jpg
https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20220823/f58027a613fea32ce0be81fa5d57fc8a.jpg

The way things are going, it’ll be September 15th and we’ll still be waiting for the switch to flip, and the ensembles will look exactly the same. I’ll be shocked if we get to 10 or more named storms by the end of the season.

But that is a good thing.

[aspen]

The second wave, with the 06z GFS shows developing in only 4 days, just got a lemon on the 8am TWO.

[NDG]

Euro does show some slight support for tropical development in the Caribbean from the TW the 0z GFS and ICON quickly develop but not until it gets to the central and western Caribbean, like the latest 06z GFS run, which does not make sense because it will have a fairly good UL environment as it enters the Caribbean away from the TUTT to the north.
I am surprised the NHC didn't highlighted this TW this morning.

[tolakram]

I've been watching the upper levels due to the fact there are two upper levels lows right now.



In 5 days, which is the furthest out I trust the GFS, not a lot has changed.



The euro has a somewhat similar 5 day look.



Euro day 5 wind shear


I think this explains why the Euro stays quiet on development. The GFS likes to squeeze storms in the small pockets of somewhat favorable conditions, which I think is unrealistic, but during peak season you never know.

Any pro want to comment/correct this amateur analysis?

Live link to upper WV loop https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=global-halfdiskeastnorth-08-200-1-25-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

A saved loop from last night.

[SoupBone]

Euro does show some slight support for tropical development in the Caribbean from the TW the 0z GFS and ICON quickly develop but not until it gets to the central and western Caribbean, like the latest 06z GFS run, which does not make sense because it will have a fairly good UL environment as it enters the Caribbean away from the TUTT to the north.
I am surprised the NHC didn't highlighted this TW this morning.

https://i.imgur.com/liKmI6c.png
https://i.imgur.com/83CgZAV.png

My promet service highlighted it and put out a forecast for it. They give it around a 20% chance over the next week. They don't go beyond that timeframe, but I bet that increases.

[skyline385]

EPS 0Z for the next 7 days is more anemic than before as it continues back tracking, it seems to have pushed all development away from 90L




Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Cpv17]

The EPS has a decent signal for the Gulf.

[NDG]

I've been watching the upper levels due to the fact there are two upper levels lows right now.

https://i.imgur.com/xFtF3pi.png

In 5 days, which is the furthest out I trust the GFS, not a lot has changed.

https://i.imgur.com/HaxVY07.png

The euro has a somewhat similar 5 day look.

https://i.imgur.com/HZoFcTq.png

Euro day 5 wind shear
https://i.imgur.com/ActF0Yj.png

I think this explains why the Euro stays quiet on development. The GFS likes to squeeze storms in the small pockets of somewhat favorable conditions, which I think is unrealistic, but during peak season you never know.

Any pro want to comment/correct this amateur analysis?

Live link to upper WV loop https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=global-halfdiskeastnorth-08-200-1-25-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

A saved loop from last night.

https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img922/8649/JaLEtK.gif

Big difference between the 06z and 0z GFS runs, had not seen such a difference in the UL winds, thus why the 06z GFS run does not develop the TW over the eastern Caribbean as shown on its previous run. The Euro validates the 06z GFS run instead of the 0z run.

[lsuhurricane]

12z ICON looks mighty threatening for the deep Caribbean system. No sign of being picked up by the trough. Let’s see if the GFs follows suit

[BobHarlem]

12z ICON looks mighty threatening for the deep Caribbean system. No sign of being picked up by the trough. Let’s see if the GFs follows suit

It's quite a bit further west and stronger than the 0z icon. GFS so far (at 60 hours out) is also stronger.

[SouthFLTropics]

If you want to watch some good weather model stuff, I suggest tuning in to the 12z GFS. Me thinks it is going to have some fun with our player from South America. At least it is looking that way so far.