2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[SFLcane]

If you want to watch some good weather model stuff, I suggest tuning in to the 12z GFS. Me thinks it is going to have some fun with our player from South America. At least it is looking that way so far.

[sma10]

If you want to watch some good weather model stuff, I suggest tuning in to the 12z GFS. Me thinks it is going to have some fun with our player from South America. At least it is looking that way so far.

https://i.postimg.cc/d0nP279m/gfgs.png

We'll see. Ironic this is the one area NHC does not have a lemon

[cycloneye]

[lsuhurricane]

Would think this run will get the board poppin. Continental trough influence seems to be lessened. Lemon this afternoon seems likely

[aspen]

If you want to watch some good weather model stuff, I suggest tuning in to the 12z GFS. Me thinks it is going to have some fun with our player from South America. At least it is looking that way so far.

https://i.postimg.cc/d0nP279m/gfgs.png

We'll see. Ironic this is the one area NHC does not have a lemon

I don’t see why they wouldn’t tag it at 2. The GFS, ICON, and HWRF-P are all on board, and development could occur as early as 72-84 hours from now.

[sma10]

Would think this run will get the board poppin. Continental trough influence seems to be lessened. Lemon this afternoon seems likely

Gulf bound this run?

[Clearcloudz]

https://i.imgur.com/oqaAwhC.png

[cycloneye]

FYI= There is a new thread that has been made for the wave off of SA so the model runs will be posted there.

https://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopi ... 4#p2981554

[cycloneye]

With the peak of the season almost here, I thought GFS would have a good deal of activity, but it only has the SA area.

[SoupBone]

With the peak of the season almost here, I thought GFS would have a good deal of activity, but it only has the SA area.

Does that make it more, or less dubious of a run?

[Teban54]

With the peak of the season almost here, I thought GFS would have a good deal of activity, but it only has the SA area.

Indeed, 12z GFS is the only one among recent runs that does not have a CV hurricane out to 342 hours.

This run still shows the 8/29 wave quickly organizing into a 1005mb TS soon after exiting Africa, in agreement with earlier runs and the Euro. But it stays weak as it tracks across the MDR.

(FWIW, this is either the same wave that 0z Euro has at 998mb after splashdown on 8/30 and keeps intensifying, or an adjacent wave.)

[cycloneye]

12z Euro has some MDR activity. Let's see what the EPS ensembles have.

[Spacecoast]

12z Genesis is a bit more active...

[Nimbus]

With the peak of the season almost here, I thought GFS would have a good deal of activity, but it only has the SA area.

Indeed, 12z GFS is the only one among recent runs that does not have a CV hurricane out to 342 hours.

This run still shows the 8/29 wave quickly organizing into a 1005mb TS soon after exiting Africa, in agreement with earlier runs and the Euro. But it stays weak as it tracks across the MDR.

(FWIW, this is either the same wave that 0z Euro has at 998mb after splashdown on 8/30 and keeps intensifying, or an adjacent wave.)

The 947 MB monster rolling into the Florida Panhandle at 264 hours on the 12Z GFS was probably a CV wave that developed late.

[KWT]

ECM ensembles are indeed looking more active, a fair number of ensemble members with hurricanes now showing, a reasonable number of landfalling canes at that as well.

[aspen]

There’s a little subtropical storm off the SE coast/near Bermuda at 180hrs on the 18z GFS.

[skyline385]

Everyone is busy with the Gulf system, meanwhile the GFS just killed off both MDR systems

[aspen]

Everyone is busy with the Gulf system, meanwhile the GFS just killed off both MDR systems

Nope, wave 3 developed again. It’s wave 2 (first after 90L) that it decided somehow isn’t impressive enough.

[Keldeo1997]

Well then

[Teban54]

0z ICON suddenly has 3 TCs in the MDR at the end of its run (180 hours), plus the SA system. It also continues the trend of every model being enthusiastic about the 8/30 wave as a TS right after exiting Africa, which is now almost within a week.