WPAC: TOKAGE - Post-Tropical
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ElectricStorm
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Re: WPAC: TOKAGE - Typhoon
New JTWC forecast has this becoming a 100kt major. Looks well on its way to me with the eye clearing out
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Yellow Evan
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Re: WPAC: TOKAGE - Typhoon
TPPN12 PGTW 231819
A. TYPHOON 11W (TOKAGE)
B. 23/1720Z
C. 32.79N
D. 148.62E
E. ONE/HMWRI8
F. T5.0/5.0/D1.5/24HRS STT: S0.0/03HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 05A/PBO IRREG EYE/ANMTN. OW EYE SURROUNDED BY LG YIELDS
AN E# AND DT (NO EYE ADJUSTMENT) OF 5.0. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
HEINS
A. TYPHOON 11W (TOKAGE)
B. 23/1720Z
C. 32.79N
D. 148.62E
E. ONE/HMWRI8
F. T5.0/5.0/D1.5/24HRS STT: S0.0/03HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 05A/PBO IRREG EYE/ANMTN. OW EYE SURROUNDED BY LG YIELDS
AN E# AND DT (NO EYE ADJUSTMENT) OF 5.0. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
HEINS
Not sure why this thread is dead. We have our first major candidate in weeks.
Also rare(?) JTWC W with this Dvorak fix.
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Re: WPAC: TOKAGE - Typhoon
Looks like it’s already a major. The CDO is incredibly smoothed out now and the eye continues to warm. Probably the strongest it’s gonna get, since it’s time in a favorable environment is quite limited.
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I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
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ElectricStorm
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Re: WPAC: TOKAGE - Typhoon
11W TOKAGE 220823 1800 33.0N 148.5E WPAC 90 963
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Kingarabian
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cycloneye
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Re: WPAC: TOKAGE - Typhoon
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Re: WPAC: TOKAGE - Typhoon
ElectricStorm wrote:11W TOKAGE 220823 1800 33.0N 148.5E WPAC 90 963
Classic JTWC. If they had to track Darby instead of the NHC, they might’ve gone with 90-100kt just like Tokage because of their very similar CDO temperatures and structures.
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I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
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Iceresistance
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Re: WPAC: TOKAGE - Typhoon
aspen wrote:ElectricStorm wrote:11W TOKAGE 220823 1800 33.0N 148.5E WPAC 90 963
Classic JTWC. If they had to track Darby instead of the NHC, they might’ve gone with 90-100kt just like Tokage because of their very similar CDO temperatures and structures.
May need to upgrade it in a post-season analysis.
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cycloneye
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Re: WPAC: TOKAGE - Typhoon
11W TOKAGE 220824 0000 34.1N 148.6E WPAC 95 956
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doomhaMwx
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Re: WPAC: TOKAGE - Typhoon
JTWC revised the peak intensity to 100kts at 00Z.
Looks like the exact peak was at ~21Z:
11W TOKAGE 220824 1200 36.2N 149.6E WPAC 80 965
11W TOKAGE 220824 0600 35.2N 149.0E WPAC 90 959
11W TOKAGE 220824 0000 34.1N 148.6E WPAC 100 952
11W TOKAGE 220823 1800 32.9N 148.6E WPAC 95 959
11W TOKAGE 220824 0600 35.2N 149.0E WPAC 90 959
11W TOKAGE 220824 0000 34.1N 148.6E WPAC 100 952
11W TOKAGE 220823 1800 32.9N 148.6E WPAC 95 959
Looks like the exact peak was at ~21Z:
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Iceresistance
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Re: WPAC: TOKAGE - Tropical Storm
JTWC has issued the final warning, system rapidly becoming post tropical.
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
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