2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

[Hypercane_Kyle]

I'm not implying it will happen, and I am fully aware of how quickly the Atlantic can "switch on", but if no storms develop between now and September 1st, it's going to be hard for me to see how this season becomes very active unless we have a 2020 style October.

So you discount September 100%
Sounds reasonable.
not

Huh? No where did I say I discounted September 100%. I just said it would be difficult, not impossible. I've seen my fair share of crazy Septembers to know it's possible. But none of them have been preceded by a season with zero named storms in August.

[SoupBone]

I'm not implying it will happen, and I am fully aware of how quickly the Atlantic can "switch on", but if no storms develop between now and September 1st, it's going to be hard for me to see how this season becomes very active unless we have a 2020 style October.

So you discount September 100%
Sounds reasonable.
not

Huh? No where did I say I discounted September 100%. I just said it would be difficult, not impossible. I've seen my fair share of crazy Septembers to know it's possible. But none of them have been preceded by a season with zero named storms in August.

I'm doubting we make it through the next week with no names at this point. There's a lot of model chatter today.

[aspen]

So you discount September 100%
Sounds reasonable.
not

Huh? No where did I say I discounted September 100%. I just said it would be difficult, not impossible. I've seen my fair share of crazy Septembers to know it's possible. But none of them have been preceded by a season with zero named storms in August.

I'm doubting we make it through the next week with no names at this point. There's a lot of model chatter today.

There’s been model chatter for weeks now, but we still have nothing. Either the switch flip is delayed another week or the models drop one wave in favor of the next. 90L was dropped, then the wave behind it, and probably eventually the wave behind that. There’s no guarantee the ECar AOI verifies either, despite being only a few days out.

I’m close to expecting a below-average season at this rate. The SSTAs, ENSO state, and forcing are there, but the basin is still quiet. If we don’t see anything this week when the MJO is most favorable, then I highly doubt the Atlantic will surpass 7-10 NS.

[Hammy]

I'm increasingly thinking we're going to see a typical 'switch flip' but simply delayed 10 days or so, perhaps Aug 29-31 vs 19-21 (the atmospheric processes do seem to be slowing, so patterns stay in place longer) but that said it's very likely that the active period will also extend well into October. CFS for instance even with its pulses up and down in activity has been very consistent in showing MDR activity deep into October.

[Category5Kaiju]

I'm increasingly thinking we're going to see a typical 'switch flip' but simply delayed 10 days or so, perhaps Aug 29-31 vs 19-21 (the atmospheric processes do seem to be slowing, so patterns stay in place longer) but that said it's very likely that the active period will also extend well into October. CFS for instance even with its pulses up and down in activity has been very consistent in showing MDR activity deep into October.

You make a pretty valid point here Hammy; if anything, the only major obstacle that I can see as of now is the dry air intrusions; otherwise, it's not like we're seeing abnormally high amounts of shear or chilly ssts, and I just am not sure how long this dry air stuff could last especially going into September, which is undoubtedly the most favorable time of the basin for a reason. While I personally think the hyperactive ship has sailed, I definitely still think that this may be a season worth watching for several pretty decently strong storms down the line.

[aspen]

Question for those who were on the forum during 2013: how does its dry air problem compared to the ML dry air issues 2022 has been having?

[Blown Away]

06z GEFS starting to delay development until W Caribbean and trending farther W. The TW's coming off Africa showing development in long range, but we know how that goes.

[tolakram]

Question for those who were on the forum during 2013: how does its dry air problem compared to the ML dry air issues 2022 has been having?

Remember that 2013 had fairly regular development



I think the dry air is a red herring, if the Atlantic was uniformly moist we'd have seasons similar to the WPAC, or 2005. The dry air is there, but something else is really wrong right now.

Reasoning from Wikipedia:

All major forecasting agencies predicted an above-average season. All reduced their seasonal predictions in early August, but even the revised predictions were too high. The lack of activity was primarily caused by an unexpected significant weakening of the Atlantic Ocean thermohaline circulation between winter and spring. This resulted in continuation of the spring weather pattern over the Atlantic Ocean, with strong vertical wind shear, mid-level moisture, and atmospheric stability, which suppressed tropical cyclogenesis.

[Category5Kaiju]

Is there a site or source where I can monitor the mid level dry air?

[skyline385]

Is there a site or source where I can monitor the mid level dry air?

CIMSS is probably the best source, has options for viewing dry air at different levels

https://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/sal/


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[WiscoWx02]

Honestly never thought I’d see a year even more unfavorable than 2013 We’ll see if that changes in the coming weeks but my expectations of such a switch flip are quickly dwindling. In close development is still a possibility come end of September and October but even that I think will be stunted because of another variable we are likely missing probably involving 3rd year La Nina’s.

[Steve]

Honestly never thought I’d see a year even more unfavorable than 2013 We’ll see if that changes in the coming weeks but my expectations of such a switch flip are quickly dwindling. In close development is still a possibility come end of September and October but even that I think will be stunted because of another variable we are likely missing probably involving 3rd year La Nina’s.

You don't want to put money on this.

[Cpv17]

Honestly never thought I’d see a year even more unfavorable than 2013 We’ll see if that changes in the coming weeks but my expectations of such a switch flip are quickly dwindling. In close development is still a possibility come end of September and October but even that I think will be stunted because of another variable we are likely missing probably involving 3rd year La Nina’s.

You don't want to put money on this.

What are you thinking Steve? You seem pretty knowledgeable.

[tarheelprogrammer]

Question for the board. Is it too early to say 2023 may be as quiet as 2022? Asking for my 2013 friends.

[Iceresistance]

Question for the board. Is it too early to say 2023 may be as quiet as 2022? Asking for my 2013 friends.

Yes, it's way too early to know what will 2023 will hold.

[LarryWx]

The most active 3rd year cold ENSO on record since 1851 of the 8 analogs in terms of ACE is 1894, which was during another active/warm AMO phase. It had an ACE of 135. Like 2022, 1894 followed a very active year, 1893, which was hyperactive with well over 200 ACE. As of the current date, 1894 was very similarly quiet at this point vs 2022 with only two shortlived tropical storms through August 29th. Then starting with the TC genesis of August 30th, the next 4 TCs ended up as major hurricanes:

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tracks/tracks-at-1894.png

[Steve]

Honestly never thought I’d see a year even more unfavorable than 2013 We’ll see if that changes in the coming weeks but my expectations of such a switch flip are quickly dwindling. In close development is still a possibility come end of September and October but even that I think will be stunted because of another variable we are likely missing probably involving 3rd year La Nina’s.

You don't want to put money on this.

What are you thinking Steve? You seem pretty knowledgeable.

I'm more in an observational perspective this year as far as the season goes. I don't think I even participated in the site's annual contest. Heading into June 1st, things looked primed for an above average or possible hyperactive year. But there are some oddball factors - 3rd year La Nina with a weight mostly toward 3/4, MJO signaling has been pretty weak for the most part until now, etc. And even now in a favorable phase, it's not all that far outside of the circle. We're at the time of year where you just have to look at climatology. Some seasons get going earlier, some later. But really any time between now and the peak on or around 9/10, we should see multiple systems. Max would probably be 3 or 4 if we get a burst effect. Then things may slack up a little depending on what the MJO does and whether it cranks back down into 8/1/2/3 again before the season ends. I think it will but it depends on when. Say it goes back into the circle (or not) around the middle of September, it would probably go back into favorable very late September or in early-mid October. In addition, it seems like there would be a couple of fish storms at any point. If I was going to put in a guess at this point, I'd think the season would be somewhere in the 12-15NS, probably more of them hurricanes from this point forward. So we could end up with something like 13 or 14NS, 7/8/9H and probably a couple of majors.

More important than the numbers are whether people get any direct impacts/effects from storms. There are conflicting signals in that many expert's analog seasons featured years with more out to sea systems than landfalls, but there are also plenty of landfalls. The current setup would tend to indicate systems getting farther west if not maybe so much a western-biased year - but we'll have to wait to see what happens with Atlantic ridging as well as the NAO. If the NAO goes toward positive and establishes itself at least temporarily, and if we have most of the ocean blocked from escapes at say 40N/50N/60N, then systems will get close to the islands and North America.

I don't know what's going to happen, so I'm just watching for now. Threat zone is probably Mississippi along the coast over to North Carolina and then northern Mexico/Texas, Canadian Maritimes, Louisiana and probably the northeast in that order.

[CyclonicFury]

I still believe that this season will get going eventually. Mid-level moisture increases in the MDR the later you get into the season, so I don't think the MDR will stay too dry for TCs all season. Although it had two hurricanes in July and managed a couple weak subtropics storms in August, 2018 was extremely dead in the deep tropics until the very end of August before a major burst of activity occurred. The strongest MDR hurricanes in recent years haven't even been until the second half of September. I think we will get at least one named storm before the end of the month.

[robbielyn]

The seasonal forecasting biz is going to take a devastating hit if this season is a bust after near universal bullishness. It's going to look like a slightly more sophisticated farmer's almanac. I'm reminded of 2006 when everyone was wildly ahead of themselves after 04 and 05 and it was a total flop.

Yes the year of the TUTT.

[Category5Kaiju]

Question for the board. Is it too early to say 2023 may be as quiet as 2022? Asking for my 2013 friends.

At least according to the Cfv2, we actually may legitimately have a chance at seeing a +ENSO state, perhaps even a chance of El Niño. With that being said, the Atlantic may be quiet? But unlike 2013, we’ve certainly had El Niño years in the Atlantic that produced at least a few major hurricanes