Area in the Northwestern Caribbean Sea

[SoupBone]

And it’s gone. Model support withered away as soon as the NHC tagged it.

It's not gone, and I'd argue that the path it takes into the gulf is concerning, considering it's late August. I'm more concerned now than I was before this run.

[Blown Away]

It's hard to tell, but I think on 12z and a few other runs the circulation early is a bit N and interacts more with Hispaniola & runs down spine of Cuba. That circulation gets disrupted so much it doesn't allow organization until late in the GOM. The runs where the circulation stays S and crosses Cuba quick it develops.

[wxman57]

https://i.imgur.com/GwXKoUM.gif
It's hard to tell, but I think on 12z and a few other runs the circulation early is a bit N and interacts more with Hispaniola & runs down spine of Cuba. That circulation gets disrupted so much it doesn't allow organization until late in the GOM. The runs where the circulation stays S and crosses Cuba quick it develops.

Surface low passes south of the islands. I don't think that's the issue. I think the environment is not so favorable. Note the comma pattern the GFS indicates near Louisiana. Strong westerly wind shear across the Gulf, according to the GFS. Went from a major hurricane landfall to 1001mb low.

[ElectricStorm]

Personally I think this stays pretty weak until it gets into the gulf (if it does). If it can get to the Gulf though it could be pretty dangerous. Models will probably be all over the place with exact track and intensity until something actually forms, which will likely be awhile until that happens. Maybe NHC will tag this as 91L soon, would be nice to get some HMON and HWRF runs for it, although those would be all over the place too.

[BobHarlem]

Now that the 12z GFS went this way, watch for a full reversal at 18z back to development. Intensity consistency has been way off this year.

[AutoPenalti]

 https://twitter.com/JackSillin/status/1562483265512304641

[SoupBone]

The GEFS isn't doing the GFS any favors. It's out to 8/31 and all but loses it several times, and the members that do have it are sending it toward Nicaragua.

[Blown Away]

Latest.

[cycloneye]

2 PM TWO:

East of The Windward Islands:
Shower and thunderstorm activity remains disorganized associated
with a tropical wave located a few hundred miles east-southeast of
the Windward Islands. Environmental conditions could become more
conducive for slow development of this system in several days after
it crosses the Windward Islands and moves across the eastern and
central Caribbean Sea late this week into early next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

[WiscoWx02]

https://twitter.com/JackSillin/status/1562483265512304641

I give it two or three more model runs and we never see it show up again. Background state just isn't there for it. Too much stability.

[Iceresistance]

This could be heading into extremely high OHC in the Western Caribbean, that could be why the GFS went absolutely crazy until 12z 8/24.


https://s4.gifyu.com/images/OHC-Caribbean.png

[wxman57]

This could be heading into extremely high OHC in the Western Caribbean, that could be why the GFS went absolutely crazy until 12z 8/24.

https://s4.gifyu.com/images/OHC-Caribbean.png
https://s4.gifyu.com/images/OHC-Caribbean.png

Highest OHC in the basin is always in the NW Caribbean. I doubt that's the reason the GFS has been developing the disturbance. It's been doing this kind of thing worldwide.

[lsuhurricane]

Euro ensembles are very active. Won't be able to look away from this one.

[Nimbus]

Euro ensembles are very active. Won't be able to look away from this one.

I'll be sending Chubbie Miller up in the Avro Avian to do a recon a little later, this definitely looks like a sharp wave which could sustain itself through to the western Caribbean like pre 99L did.

[Clearcloudz]

12Z ECENS Ensembles

[SoupBone]

Euro ensembles are very active. Won't be able to look away from this one.

I count 12 runs headed towards Mexico, and 8 runs into the gulf, but nothing to write home about, really. Not being sarcastic, what am I missing?

[Blown Away]

Euro ensembles are very active. Won't be able to look away from this one.

00z ECENS

12z ECENS

For sure has to be watched, but support is dropping run to run today and shifting more weak & west.

Next TW in MDR may be the one to watch.

[Cpv17]

Euro ensembles are very active. Won't be able to look away from this one.

I count 12 runs headed towards Mexico, and 8 runs into the gulf, but nothing to write home about, really. Not being sarcastic, what am I missing?

I mean for the somewhat conservative Euro, it’s a decent signal but far from a great one. It’s definitely enough to keep your attention though.

[SoupBone]

Euro ensembles are very active. Won't be able to look away from this one.

I count 12 runs headed towards Mexico, and 8 runs into the gulf, but nothing to write home about, really. Not being sarcastic, what am I missing?

I mean for the somewhat conservative Euro, it’s a decent signal but far from a great one. It’s definitely enough to keep your attention though.

True. What's strange is how the CMC, which is usually more aggressive hasn't done much of anything all season.

[jlauderdal]

I count 12 runs headed towards Mexico, and 8 runs into the gulf, but nothing to write home about, really. Not being sarcastic, what am I missing?

I mean for the somewhat conservative Euro, it’s a decent signal but far from a great one. It’s definitely enough to keep your attention though.

True. What's strange is how the CMC, which is usually more aggressive hasn't done much of anything all season.

Maybe we should pay more attention to the CMC, it has the right idea, so far. We can bust out the NOGAPs too.