2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

[psyclone]

Even locally (mid FL) our rainy season has been off. Convection has been of a lesser coverage and intensity relative to normal. We're now late in the rainy season and unusually dry. OTOH this has yielded above normal sea temps so if things change there's plenty of flash fuel near shore locally.. As for storms it is incredibly difficult to make is through late August without something forming. I have to see nothing to believe we end up with nothing. Even in slow seasons we're now entitled to activity.

[LarryWx]

12z GFS forecasted shear anomaly averaged over the next 5 days shows above average shear Africa to Lesser Antilles and below average shear Caribbean before it increases mid to late next week. So, based on this shear anomaly forecast, fwiw, the Caribbean may be more vulnerable to a TC genesis than normal through early next week and the W Caribbean til about mid next week:

[WiscoWx02]

Question for the board. Is it too early to say 2023 may be as quiet as 2022? Asking for my 2013 friends.

At least according to the Cfv2, we actually may legitimately have a chance at seeing a +ENSO state, perhaps even a chance of El Niño. With that being said, the Atlantic may be quiet? But unlike 2013, we’ve certainly had El Niño years in the Atlantic that produced at least a few major hurricanes

Next year will be even more favorable than this year even if there is an El Nino in my opinion Very early to say if there will be an El Nino or if it will be active though, it'll be too early until next June at the earliest. We all wish we had the answer though I'm sure.

[SoupBone]

12z GFS forecasted shear anomaly averaged over the next 5 days shows above average shear Africa to Lesser Antilles and below average shear Caribbean before it increases mid to late next week. So, based on this shear anomaly forecast, fwiw, the Caribbean may be more vulnerable to a TC genesis than normal through early next week and the W Caribbean til about mid next week:

https://i.imgur.com/rhRjHWH.png

I wonder if that's why the GFS backed off on much development of that wave it had been blowing up.

[Category5Kaiju]

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1562487620025741315




An interesting discovery Andy Hazelton made. It's tempting to compare this season's conditions with 2013...until, of course, you really look into the nitty gritty details of the background states and realize there's hardly anything in common, especially as demonstrated here.

[CyclonicFury]

I would caution against expecting this season to be historically quiet. It would really only take one long-tracked strong hurricane to pass some historically quiet seasons like 2013. I still think we are heading for a delayed peak rather than a "dead" season. If we don't get any hurricanes by September 10th, perhaps I will change my tune, but we're not at the "season is over" point yet.

[skyline385]

Question for the board. Is it too early to say 2023 may be as quiet as 2022? Asking for my 2013 friends.

At least according to the Cfv2, we actually may legitimately have a chance at seeing a +ENSO state, perhaps even a chance of El Niño. With that being said, the Atlantic may be quiet? But unlike 2013, we’ve certainly had El Niño years in the Atlantic that produced at least a few major hurricanes

Next year will be even more favorable than this year even if there is an El Nino in my opinion Very early to say if there will be an El Nino or if it will be active though, it'll be too early until next June at the earliest. We all wish we had the answer though I'm sure.

Why would it be more favorable if we had an El Nino? If we recall the vertical instability discussion from a few days ago, it’s been on a constant decline for the past few years after peaking around 2005. The graphic below hasn’t been updated in a few days as they are working to replace the current one but we have trending constantly below the 25th percentile for the period starting 2005. This makes me wonder if this is a possible sign that the +AMO period is finally coming to an end. If that is indeed the case and we enter an El Nino state, then conditions aren’t going to get favorable imo.




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[NotSparta]

At least according to the Cfv2, we actually may legitimately have a chance at seeing a +ENSO state, perhaps even a chance of El Niño. With that being said, the Atlantic may be quiet? But unlike 2013, we’ve certainly had El Niño years in the Atlantic that produced at least a few major hurricanes

Next year will be even more favorable than this year even if there is an El Nino in my opinion Very early to say if there will be an El Nino or if it will be active though, it'll be too early until next June at the earliest. We all wish we had the answer though I'm sure.

Why would it be more favorable if we had an El Nino? If we recall the vertical instability discussion from a few days ago, it’s been on a constant decline for the past few years after peaking around 2005. The graphic below hasn’t been updated in a few days as they are working to replace the current one but we have trending constantly below the 25th percentile for the period starting 2005. This makes me wonder if this is a possible sign that the +AMO period is finally coming to an end. If that is indeed the case and we enter an El Nino state, then conditions aren’t going to get favorable imo.

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20220824/56817f3c43a0edac844b2ef8b399dc0f.jpg


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

I think this value being lower recently is mostly related to global warming. Things like Hadley cell expansion pushes this value down

[SoupBone]

I would caution against expecting this season to be historically quiet. It would really only take one long-tracked strong hurricane to pass some historically quiet seasons like 2013. I still think we are heading for a delayed peak rather than a "dead" season. If we don't get any hurricanes by September 10th, perhaps I will change my tune, but we're not at the "season is over" point yet.

I get it, but this can has been kicked since the beginning of August. If by XXX date, we don't see any systems, then...

[Hammy]

I would caution against expecting this season to be historically quiet. It would really only take one long-tracked strong hurricane to pass some historically quiet seasons like 2013. I still think we are heading for a delayed peak rather than a "dead" season. If we don't get any hurricanes by September 10th, perhaps I will change my tune, but we're not at the "season is over" point yet.

I get it, but this can has been kicked since the beginning of August. If by XXX date, we don't see any systems, then...

The indicators have been there all along that this would be similar to 1988 or 2018. Even as far back as July, I suspected August would be quieter than a lot of people expected (I was a bit surprised to be proven right, I'll admit) but I've felt September 1, give or take a few days on either side, would be the switch flip.

The reason it seems like the season will never get going is because the models have no idea what they're doing, and keep misjudging the present conditions, and in turn too quickly moving forward to the flip.

[Category5Kaiju]

Ok I was simply very curious to ask, but when determining if a season is hyperactive or not, if a season, for example, produces a below average number of NSs and hurricanes (so maybe like 11 and 6 respectively) but produces like 3-4 majors, all of which end up being high ACE storms that bring the season's total ACE to above 160, is this kind of season hyperactive or not? In other words, does "hyperactivity" only depend on ACE, or do NS/H/MH count have to be considered too?

[tolakram]

Ok I was simply very curious to ask, but when determining if a season is hyperactive or not, if a season, for example, produces a below average number of NSs and hurricanes (so maybe like 11 and 6 respectively) but produces like 3-4 majors, all of which end up being high ACE storms that bring the season's total ACE to above 160, is this kind of season hyperactive or not? In other words, does "hyperactivity" only depend on ACE, or do NS/H/MH count have to be considered too?

Only ACE counts for hyperactive.

[Iceresistance]

That might explain why the ATL is so inactive.

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1562506228277727232

[aspen]

I hate to make comparisons to that season, but isn’t the slow to non-existent westward motion of the tropical waves similar to 2013? Mark Sudduth pointed out how anomalous it was in yesterday’s video, and I think I remember someone here saying how slow the waves were that year.

[USTropics]

I hate to make comparisons to that season, but isn’t the slow to non-existent westward motion of the tropical waves similar to 2013? Mark Sudduth pointed out how anomalous it was in yesterday’s video, and I think I remember someone here saying how slow the waves were that year.

I can run some 500mb steering anomalies after class but I'm not seeing the Atlantic thermohaline collapse like 2013. More so, there has been a persistent pattern of cutoff lows pinching off from the North Atlantic jet stream and positioning over the NW coast of Africa or over the central Atlantic (undercutting the high pressure area). This causes the waves to be less influenced by ridging and hence the slower movement (which is evident in the ECMWF 00z run). Once the ULL lifts out, ridging sets in (in addition to less mid-level dry air intrusion):


2013 didn't have a problem of spitting out tropical waves, the atmosphere just didn't allow them to develop into anything of significance.

[Category5Kaiju]

I hate to make comparisons to that season, but isn’t the slow to non-existent westward motion of the tropical waves similar to 2013? Mark Sudduth pointed out how anomalous it was in yesterday’s video, and I think I remember someone here saying how slow the waves were that year.

I can run some 500mb steering anomalies after class but I'm not seeing the Atlantic thermohaline collapse like 2013. More so, there has been a persistent pattern of cutoff lows pinching off from the North Atlantic jet stream and positioning over the NW coast of Africa or over the central Atlantic (undercutting the high pressure area). This causes the waves to be less influenced by ridging and hence the slower movement (which is evident in the ECMWF 00z run). Once the ULL lifts out, ridging sets in (in addition to less mid-level dry air intrusion):
https://i.ibb.co/LdSPGTL/ecmwf-z500a-atl-fh72-192.gif

2013 didn't have a problem of spitting out tropical waves, the atmosphere just didn't allow them to develop into anything of significance.

2013's NS formation pace was actually pretty normal for an above average season. With that being said, how long would the mid-level dry air intrusions conceivably last until is the big question? My guess is that it should lessen by September...but we'll see.

[USTropics]

I hate to make comparisons to that season, but isn’t the slow to non-existent westward motion of the tropical waves similar to 2013? Mark Sudduth pointed out how anomalous it was in yesterday’s video, and I think I remember someone here saying how slow the waves were that year.

I can run some 500mb steering anomalies after class but I'm not seeing the Atlantic thermohaline collapse like 2013. More so, there has been a persistent pattern of cutoff lows pinching off from the North Atlantic jet stream and positioning over the NW coast of Africa or over the central Atlantic (undercutting the high pressure area). This causes the waves to be less influenced by ridging and hence the slower movement (which is evident in the ECMWF 00z run). Once the ULL lifts out, ridging sets in (in addition to less mid-level dry air intrusion):
https://i.ibb.co/LdSPGTL/ecmwf-z500a-atl-fh72-192.gif

2013 didn't have a problem of spitting out tropical waves, the atmosphere just didn't allow them to develop into anything of significance.

2013's NS formation pace was actually pretty normal for an above average season. With that being said, how long would the mid-level dry air intrusions conceivably last until is the big question? My guess is that it should lessen by September...but we'll see.

Both the GFS and ECMWF have extensive ridging extending across most of CONUS all the way towards the central Atlantic, (and why the spurious system the GFS keeps developing in the Caribbean is getting directed hard west):





That would definitely stop mid-level dry air intrusions from any system(s) that can take advantage of the environment. The ULL in the central Atlantic will keep a cap on things until it lifts out. The ECMWF/ensembles and the more northern GFS ensemble members respond to this change and hence the development we're seeing forecasted now.

[SFLcane]

I can run some 500mb steering anomalies after class but I'm not seeing the Atlantic thermohaline collapse like 2013. More so, there has been a persistent pattern of cutoff lows pinching off from the North Atlantic jet stream and positioning over the NW coast of Africa or over the central Atlantic (undercutting the high pressure area). This causes the waves to be less influenced by ridging and hence the slower movement (which is evident in the ECMWF 00z run). Once the ULL lifts out, ridging sets in (in addition to less mid-level dry air intrusion):
https://i.ibb.co/LdSPGTL/ecmwf-z500a-atl-fh72-192.gif

2013 didn't have a problem of spitting out tropical waves, the atmosphere just didn't allow them to develop into anything of significance.

2013's NS formation pace was actually pretty normal for an above average season. With that being said, how long would the mid-level dry air intrusions conceivably last until is the big question? My guess is that it should lessen by September...but we'll see.

Both the GFS and ECMWF have extensive ridging extending across most of CONUS all the way towards the central Atlantic, (and why the spurious system the GFS keeps developing in the Caribbean is getting directed hard west):

https://i.ibb.co/Bw9v0xX/gfs-z500a-atl-40.png

https://i.ibb.co/L5Wbx9J/ecmwf-z500a-atl-65.png

That would definitely stop mid-level dry air intrusions from any system(s) that can take advantage of the environment. The ULL in the central Atlantic will keep a cap on things until it lifts out. The ECMWF/ensembles and the more northern GFS ensemble members respond to this change and hence the development we're seeing forecasted now.

Whats your take on this potential TC nearing Puerto Rico regarding steering?

[USTropics]

2013's NS formation pace was actually pretty normal for an above average season. With that being said, how long would the mid-level dry air intrusions conceivably last until is the big question? My guess is that it should lessen by September...but we'll see.

Both the GFS and ECMWF have extensive ridging extending across most of CONUS all the way towards the central Atlantic, (and why the spurious system the GFS keeps developing in the Caribbean is getting directed hard west):

https://i.ibb.co/Bw9v0xX/gfs-z500a-atl-40.png

https://i.ibb.co/L5Wbx9J/ecmwf-z500a-atl-65.png

That would definitely stop mid-level dry air intrusions from any system(s) that can take advantage of the environment. The ULL in the central Atlantic will keep a cap on things until it lifts out. The ECMWF/ensembles and the more northern GFS ensemble members respond to this change and hence the development we're seeing forecasted now.

Whats your take on this potential TC nearing Puerto Rico regarding steering?

It's a potentially dangerous setup for islands in the Caribbean/Bahamas. The GFS and ECMWF have similar upper-level environments in the long range (if the GFS didn't initialize the vorticity so far south it would show development imo, see GFS ensembles). This is entirely trivial due to obvious reasons (timescale/position of wave development is critical here) but extrapolating that run with the GFS steering pattern would be concerned this makes it significantly west.

[SFLcane]

Both the GFS and ECMWF have extensive ridging extending across most of CONUS all the way towards the central Atlantic, (and why the spurious system the GFS keeps developing in the Caribbean is getting directed hard west):

https://i.ibb.co/Bw9v0xX/gfs-z500a-atl-40.png

https://i.ibb.co/L5Wbx9J/ecmwf-z500a-atl-65.png

That would definitely stop mid-level dry air intrusions from any system(s) that can take advantage of the environment. The ULL in the central Atlantic will keep a cap on things until it lifts out. The ECMWF/ensembles and the more northern GFS ensemble members respond to this change and hence the development we're seeing forecasted now.

Whats your take on this potential TC nearing Puerto Rico regarding steering?

It's a potentially dangerous setup for islands in the Caribbean/Bahamas. The GFS and ECMWF have similar upper-level environments in the long range (if the GFS didn't initialize the vorticity so far south it would show development imo, see GFS ensembles). This is entirely trivial due to obvious reasons (timescale/position of wave development is critical here) but extrapolating that run with the GFS steering pattern would be concerned this makes it significantly west.