2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[tolakram]

Slightly off topic, but 2019 was quite slow during August before Dorian. The archived Dorian model thread https://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=89&t=120454 is an interesting read... it was late August, and conditions were similarly quiet, and models similarly inconsistent. Just shows things can change quickly.

Also a good example of how the euro had to play catchup with development, many forget this year after year. Once the storm develops then the euro starts to show it's better accuracy, most fo the time. Track every wave, try and guess which one is in the right place when conditions improve.

[ElectricStorm]

18z GFS once again develops the 8/29 wave as soon as it emerges

[aspen]

18z GFS @240hrs has a party in the Atlantic: the 0/20 SA disturbance entering the Gulf, the 0/20 wave about to develop near the Lesser Antilles, a hurricane from the 8/29 wave, and another strong wave making splashdown. This run’s fantasy range is gonna be interesting.

[tolakram]

JMA, ICON, Euro, GFS all on board with 2 active low pressure areas in the MDR at 120 - 192 hours.

[tolakram]

UKMET



source: https://weather.us/model-charts/gbr/americas/sea-level-pressure/20220831-1200z.html

[tolakram]

Happy hour

[Teban54]

This is one of the most hilarious runs I've seen in a while, even by Happy Hour GFS standards.

[sma10]

GFS starts up tropical genesis with a bang, then turns the entire steering atmosphere to mid-November

[skyline385]

This is one of the most hilarious runs I've seen in a while, even by Happy Hour GFS standards.
https://i.postimg.cc/ydJ0gsVs/gfs-z850-vort-atl-fh0-384.gif

Yea this is one for the record books, saved a gif of the entire run

[Category5Kaiju]

This is one of the most hilarious runs I've seen in a while, even by Happy Hour GFS standards.
https://i.postimg.cc/ydJ0gsVs/gfs-z850-vort-atl-fh0-384.gif

Yea this is one for the record books, saved a gif of the entire run

https://s4.gifyu.com/images/gfs_mslp_pcpn_atl_fh120-384.md.gif

If this run even remotely verifies, then I'll just sell my house

[blp]

UKMET

https://i.imgur.com/bZomWSS.png

source: https://weather.us/model-charts/gbr/americas/sea-level-pressure/20220831-1200z.html

Finally.. maybe the CMC will catch on next run. Last domino to fall.

[Iceresistance]

This is one of the most hilarious runs I've seen in a while, even by Happy Hour GFS standards.
https://i.postimg.cc/ydJ0gsVs/gfs-z850-vort-atl-fh0-384.gif

Did someone program a CV Hurricane barrier at the Leeward Islands?

[blp]

Hey NAVGEM welcome to the 2022 season.

CMC your starting to look bad. Try to catch up..

[AnnularCane]

Is the CMC no longer "Constantly Making Cyclones?"

[Teban54]

Is the CMC no longer "Constantly Making Cyclones?"

IIRC, since an update a few years ago the CMC has been really conservative, sometimes even more so than the Euro. Might as well call it Constantly Murdering Cyclones instead.

[Hammy]

Is the CMC no longer "Constantly Making Cyclones?"

IIRC, since an update a few years ago the CMC has been really conservative, sometimes even more so than the Euro. Might as well call it Constantly Murdering Cyclones instead.

It seems like it wants to take over for the Euro where it shows storms several days out only to drop them, and then suddenly show development when they're within 48 hours or so

[skyline385]

0Z ICON has one of the CV systems swallowing up the other two and growing up into a big chonker

[ElectricStorm]

0z GFS much weaker with the third wave so far, gets to 1001mb over the Cape Verde islands compared to the 980s on previous runs. We'll see if it still gets going

[SoupBone]

What in the world is the GFS doing? I see a system off the tip of Florida going due west into the gulf. Is that the South American system or something else?

[skyline385]

Is that a gyre in the Gulf lol? What even is happening this run




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