Low Pressure in the Central Atlantic (Is Invest 91L)

[jlauderdal]

Seems pretty likely we could be tracking a tc in the mdr soon.

Famous last words for this season, the Atlantic basin is rather dry.

[WiscoWx02]

Seems pretty likely we could be tracking a tc in the mdr soon.

Famous last words for this season, the Atlantic basin is rather dry.

Yeah not much potential out there…this wave will probably be roasted dry by this time on Friday.

[SFLcane]

Seems pretty likely we could be tracking a tc in the mdr soon.

Famous last words for this season, the Atlantic basin is rather dry.

Pretty strong signal from EPS even though that has been all over the place lately. we will see

[aspen]

Seems pretty likely we could be tracking a tc in the mdr soon.

Famous last words for this season, the Atlantic basin is rather dry.

Pretty strong signal from EPS even though that has been all over the place lately. we will see

Lol the EPS has had a strong signal for every wave that gets obliterated by dry air or a TUTT this season. If the signal is strong on the ensembles and/or operationals within a few days, and we’re simultaneously seeing signs of development, then it has a chance.

[Iceresistance]

Could merge with a TW just south of Cape Verde, and if it does, it could create a very large, broad system that could develop into a TC later down the road.


https://s4.gifyu.com/images/35809170.gif

[Hurricaneman]

The current GFS shows this going towards the lesser Antilles and over Hispaniola and Cuba in the later part of the run, I wouldn’t discount this wave yet

[cycloneye]

2 PM TWO:

Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave is forecast to move off the west coast of Africa in
the next day or so. Environmental conditions could support some
slow development of this system late this week or over the weekend
while it moves westward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

[Blown Away]

SAL surge pushing down towards this TW, may be able to make it!

[cycloneye]

Westward with the 0/20 in front.

[SFLcane]

[AutoPenalti]

Two back-to-back...

That's one way to start the CV season huh...

[Spacecoast]

Wondering why the GFS Op doesn't like the AIO 0/20, but favors wave behind.....?

[AutoPenalti]

The old(?) Euro has this moving W in tandem with the wave behind it but the wave behind it starts to move WNW while this one keeps at steady pace W.

[AxaltaRacing24]

The old(?) Euro has this moving W in tandem with the wave behind it but the wave behind it starts to move WNW while this one keeps at steady pace W.

Despite them not being strong, this scenario is even more dangerous if one of those waves made it over.

[Hammy]

Wondering why the GFS Op doesn't like the AIO 0/20, but favors wave behind.....?
[url]https://i.ibb.co/PxfvQZB/gfs-shear-eatl-fh66-324.gif [/url]

Wave is very broad, and the GFS has trouble with broad waves/monsoon trough interaction. While I can't say for sure this wave will develop, it's had quite a few times of (correctly) developing a wave in the longer range, until the wave actually exists, and then dropping it if it's not tightly defined in real time

The wave behind it is tighter so it's having less difficulty with it.

[cycloneye]

8 PM TWO:

Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave is currently moving off the west coast of Africa.
Environmental conditions could support some slow development of
this system late this week or over the weekend while it moves
westward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

[tolakram]

Models at 120 or 162 hours (depending on model)

Euro


GFS


CMC


UKIE


JMA


ICON (120)


How could I forget NAVGEM?

[skyline385]

Maybe this one might just make it?

 https://twitter.com/osuwxguy/status/1562599617698508802




Current Loop

[Teban54]

Maybe this one might just make it?

https://twitter.com/osuwxguy/status/1562599617698508802

Current Loop

https://s4.gifyu.com/images/94137217.gif

To me, it seems that the main problem is the wave(s) being too broad and hard to consolidate.

[skyline385]

Maybe this one might just make it?

https://twitter.com/osuwxguy/status/1562599617698508802

Current Loop

https://s4.gifyu.com/images/94137217.gif

To me, it seems that the main problem is the wave(s) being too broad and hard to consolidate.

Yep that seems to be one of the problems plaguing this season but atleast this one is going off instead of withering away…