Low Pressure in the Central Atlantic (Is Invest 91L)

[cycloneye]

This wave is now at the surface analysis map as it has been introduced.

[ElectricStorm]

0z GFS stronger with this wave. Down to 988mb at hour 252 east of the islands

[drezee]

 https://twitter.com/andretrotter/status/1562704630718418945

[cycloneye]

ECMWF 00z run.

[USTropics]

Notable increase in support on the 00z ECMWF ensemble guidance (animation below):


The usually conservative GEFS members have some strong solutions as well:

[BobHarlem]

6z GFS does nothing at all with this wave.

[cycloneye]

8 AM TWO:

2. Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave has moved off the west coast of Africa and is
producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
Environmental conditions could support some slow development of
this system through early next week while it moves quickly westward
across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic at 15 to 20 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

[USTropics]

6z GFS does nothing at all with this wave.

Main issue is how low the GFS initializes the vorticity in 4-5 days. 06z GFS has this all the way down at 9.5N. It essentially stalls out there on the run due to the lack of steering currents:


Meanwhile, the 00z ECMWF has this initializing up near 12N same time period:


the 06Z ensembles (which run on the more conservative v15 framework), have some very aggressive members that form more north (11.5-12.5N):

[Blown Away]

Latest. IMO, best looking TW so far.

[Steve H.]

I agree. Let’s see if it holds together .

[SoupBone]

https://i.imgur.com/dIaATDi.gif
Latest. IMO, best looking TW so far.

Easily. It's huge too. I haven't been paying much attention to it, do the models give it a favorable environment to work with or will it be a sacrificial lamb to SAL?

[SFLcane]

Very robost wave..

[Category5Kaiju]

I wonder if it's a known phenomenon for waves to develop a protective "pocket" against mid-level dry air?

[Kingarabian]

I wonder if it's a known phenomenon for waves to develop a protective "pocket" against mid-level dry air?

All the time.

[USTropics]

I wonder if it's a known phenomenon for waves to develop a protective "pocket" against mid-level dry air?

All the time.

Fun fact, back when NPS was tracking AEWs they referred to them as "pouches" because of the propensity for the waves to have a protective pouch similar to how kangaroos carry their young.

[Hurricaneman]

6z GFS does nothing at all with this wave.

It was already wrong from initialization way farther south on the model with the model having it at 9n while it’s in real time 12.5n

[ScottNAtlanta]

I'm fairly impressed by the wave in front. It hasn't dried up like many have before. The further west it gets things only get better.

[InfernoFlameCat]

This wave is trouble. The vorticity is quite good. The wave is also tightening. The switch has officially been flipped.

[ScottNAtlanta]

There is some dry stable air over the Cabo Verde Islands very close to this wave. It could suffer some dry air as it moves forward.

[cycloneye]

8 AM TWD:


A far eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis just offshore
Africa along 18W from 05N to 21N moving westward at 10 kt. The
surrounding environment of this wave has moistened up since 24
hours. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted
from 10N to 14N between 18W-22W. Scattered moderate convection
is from 08N to 11N between 14W-22W. Convective activity preceding
this wave consists of a large cluster numerous moderate to strong
convection from 06N to 13N between 26W-32W, and of scattered
moderate to isolated strong convection from 04N to 08N between
32W-38W. This activity has been rather persistent, and appears to
be a piece of energy that had detached from the wave when it was
inland Africa yesterday. Environmental conditions could support
some slow development of this system later this week, or during
the weekend as it continues on westward.