Area in the Northwestern Caribbean Sea

[Blown Away]

https://imgur.com/qtHo78E

That looks a tad bit better organized than what I expected looking at the models

Latest..

[SoupBone]

GFS ensembles send most of the members into Mexico, with a few pointed at Texas.

[SoupBone]

And Joe Bastardi sounding some Harvey bells today.

https://mobile.twitter.com/bigjoebastardi/status/1562772477842862081?s=21&t=2F0lR8ilnCEA8Yp_D1HWPQ

[wxman57]

That's not the system just east of the Caribbean that the GFS is developing. You can track the 850mb vorticity into Belize next Tuesday. After it moves inland, the GFS develops a spurious storm near Jamaica and tracks it into the Gulf. Not buying it.

[Cpv17]

GFS ensembles send most of the members into Mexico, with a few pointed at Texas.

https://i.imgur.com/bR8oOlQ.png

Check out the 0z EPS.

[SoupBone]

GFS ensembles send most of the members into Mexico, with a few pointed at Texas.

https://i.imgur.com/bR8oOlQ.png

Check out the 0z EPS.

7 into Mexico, 7 into upper Texas, and 3 splitting the difference.

[wxman57]

GFS ensembles send most of the members into Mexico, with a few pointed at Texas.

https://i.imgur.com/bR8oOlQ.png

Check out the 0z EPS.

7 into Mexico, 7 into upper Texas, and 3 splitting the difference.

https://i.imgur.com/hZfMnlc.png

I see two separate systems on that ensembles graphic. One that the GFS takes into Central America, the other it develops in the NW Caribbean later. More garbage.

[Emmett_Brown]

All models are wrong, some are useful. IMO the recent poor run to run consistency means they are not that useful until something actually forms.

[SoupBone]

Check out the 0z EPS.

7 into Mexico, 7 into upper Texas, and 3 splitting the difference.

https://i.imgur.com/hZfMnlc.png

I see two separate systems on that ensembles graphic. One that the GFS takes into Central America, the other it develops in the NW Caribbean later. More garbage.

Thanks for that, I honestly did not see two systems.

[cheezyWXguy]

GFS ensembles send most of the members into Mexico, with a few pointed at Texas.

https://i.imgur.com/bR8oOlQ.png

Check out the 0z EPS.

7 into Mexico, 7 into upper Texas, and 3 splitting the difference.

https://i.imgur.com/hZfMnlc.png

Fitting that the strongest member goes into western Louisiana, haha.

But yeah, not seeing anything conclusive here. The fact that these models are losing the development signal on this wave and now trying to develop something 5 days later in the same spot makes me skeptical anything will come of either of them.

[Iceresistance]

I do want to mention that the GoM has a stronger-than usual loop current just south of New Orleans, and the upwelling potential across the Western Caribbean is lower than usual. This TW appears to be heading in that direction too.


https://s4.gifyu.com/images/OHCe49070e6daf8095a.gif


https://s4.gifyu.com/images/Concerningb50d8a31a40889ee.png

[SoupBone]

12Z ICON does nothing with it through 180 hours.

[Cpv17]

Check out the 0z EPS.

7 into Mexico, 7 into upper Texas, and 3 splitting the difference.

https://i.imgur.com/hZfMnlc.png

Fitting that the strongest member goes into western Louisiana, haha.

But yeah, not seeing anything conclusive here. The fact that these models are losing the development signal on this wave and now trying to develop something 5 days later in the same spot makes me skeptical anything will come of either of them.

It was never really supposed to develop inside of 5 days anyway. That’s why the NHC is only giving it 20%. If it reaches the WCAR it’ll have a better chance.

[LadyBug72]

I do want to mention that the GoM has a stronger-than usual loop current just south of New Orleans, and the upwelling potential across the Western Caribbean is lower than usual. This TW appears to be heading in that direction too.

https://s4.gifyu.com/images/OHCe49070e6daf8095a.gif
https://s4.gifyu.com/images/OHCe49070e6daf8095a.gif

https://s4.gifyu.com/images/Concerningb50d8a31a40889ee.png
https://s4.gifyu.com/images/Concerningb50d8a31a40889ee.png

Do you mind explaining this for us who don't understand all the lingo? LOL.

[Nimbus]

I looked through some surface pressure observations in Barbados at the time the Apex of the wave was passing nearby. There was one spurious 943 MB reading but none of the rest got below 1012.7 mb. So despite the visual presentation of perhaps a stronger sharp wave, there isn't any deep hole in the surface pressure yet.

[InfernoFlameCat]

I looked through some surface pressure observations in Barbados at the time the Apex of the wave was passing nearby. There was one spurious 943 MB reading but none of the rest got below 1012.7 mb. So despite the visual presentation of perhaps a stronger sharp wave, there isn't any deep hole in the surface pressure yet.

ugliest cat four I have ever seen lol. We will see what this does. Stability seems to be the main limiting factor here.

[Iceresistance]

I do want to mention that the GoM has a stronger-than usual loop current just south of New Orleans, and the upwelling potential across the Western Caribbean is lower than usual. This TW appears to be heading in that direction too.

https://s4.gifyu.com/images/OHCe49070e6daf8095a.gif
https://s4.gifyu.com/images/OHCe49070e6daf8095a.gif

https://s4.gifyu.com/images/Concerningb50d8a31a40889ee.png
https://s4.gifyu.com/images/Concerningb50d8a31a40889ee.png

Do you mind explaining this for us who don't understand all the lingo? LOL.

OHC (Ocean Heat Content) basically shows how much energy is in the general area, this could allow a TC to become stronger under favorable conditions.

The Depth of the 20C Isoterm shows how deep the warm water is before it reaches the colder water, the brighter the colors, the warmer the lower levels are and upwelling can take longer than normal, which means a TC that is stalled can sustain itself for longer periods of time.

[SoupBone]

12Z GFS looks to be sending it into Central/Southern Mexico. As I posted last night, the GFS is having issues. Last night, it developed a system off the tip of Florida, sent it due west to Matagorda Bay, then hooked a 90 degree right into the Houston area as a major hurricane. I get that run to run, things change and especially intensity this far out should be taken very lightly. But the development period keeps getting pushed back further, the runs are all over the place still.

[LadyBug72]

I do want to mention that the GoM has a stronger-than usual loop current just south of New Orleans, and the upwelling potential across the Western Caribbean is lower than usual. This TW appears to be heading in that direction too.

https://s4.gifyu.com/images/OHCe49070e6daf8095a.gif
https://s4.gifyu.com/images/OHCe49070e6daf8095a.gif

https://s4.gifyu.com/images/Concerningb50d8a31a40889ee.png
https://s4.gifyu.com/images/Concerningb50d8a31a40889ee.png

Do you mind explaining this for us who don't understand all the lingo? LOL.

OHC (Ocean Heat Content) basically shows how much energy is in the general area, this could allow a TC to become stronger under favorable conditions.

The Depth of the 20C Isoterm shows how deep the warm water is before it reaches the colder water, the brighter the colors, the warmer the lower levels are and upwelling can take longer than normal, which means a TC that is stalled can sustain itself for longer periods of time.

Thank you. I am a lurker trying to learn, so this has nothing to do with direction only strength?

[BobHarlem]

12ZGFS spins up a vortex off South America and sends it to Honduras in front of this system. However the system for the thread stays away from that eventually makes its way to Central Mexico. That along with the fact it doesn't see the Atlantic wave at all (compared to Euro) makes me doubt it. The only thing I can get out of these models is watch this system as it gets into the west Caribbean. Anything else with model storms at this point is fruitless.