Low Pressure in the Central Atlantic (Is Invest 91L)

[AnnularCane]

I wonder if it's a known phenomenon for waves to develop a protective "pocket" against mid-level dry air?

All the time.

Fun fact, back when NPS was tracking AEWs they referred to them as "pouches" because of the propensity for the waves to have a protective pouch similar to how kangaroos carry their young.

Awww, they're not called that anymore? I kind of liked that term.

[skyline385]

If the models start backing off again then just lol I don’t even know to say anymore

 https://twitter.com/andyhazelton/status/1562837106140913665





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[Sciencerocks]

If the models start backing off again then just lol I don’t even know to say anymore

https://twitter.com/andyhazelton/status/1562837106140913665?s=21&t=oWB7d1lJtq3UT7m2UDCB_A


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I wouldn't be shocked at all! There's no way in hell we're getting 17-19 named storms. Even my prediction of 16 is going to be damn tough.It would be extremely mindblowing to see these seasonal forecast confirmed. I'd post a crow for my avy for the next two years if it happens! Truthfully, I'd watch for some western caribbean or gulf action coming from the east of the caribbean system or some other wave down the road that may happen in the next 5-7 days as that seems to be where the favorability is.

[aspen]

If the models start backing off again then just lol I don’t even know to say anymore

https://twitter.com/andyhazelton/status/1562837106140913665?s=21&t=oWB7d1lJtq3UT7m2UDCB_A


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Yeah we’re not getting any MDR storm anytime soon…maybe not at all this year. Every single wave has been a false positive, and somehow there’s way too much stability out there. Who would’ve guessed that a season with a 225 ACE prediction from the Euro back in June would go storm-free for nearly two months.

[NotSparta]

If the models start backing off again then just lol I don’t even know to say anymore

https://twitter.com/andyhazelton/status/1562837106140913665?s=21&t=oWB7d1lJtq3UT7m2UDCB_A


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Yeah we’re not getting any MDR storm anytime soon…maybe not at all this year. Every single wave has been a false positive, and somehow there’s way too much stability out there. Who would’ve guessed that a season with a 225 ACE prediction from the Euro back in June would go storm-free for nearly two months.

lol good luck going an entire season without an MDR storm. Seems the quiet is starting to get to people

[Cpv17]

I couldn’t care less about the MDR. Whether this develops in the MDR or not, this will need to be watched further west. I don’t take these model runs for face value. It doesn’t have to be showing a TS or a H every run for it to catch my attention.

[Teban54]

If the models start backing off again then just lol I don’t even know to say anymore

https://twitter.com/andyhazelton/status/1562837106140913665?s=21&t=oWB7d1lJtq3UT7m2UDCB_A


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Support for this wave has been on and off anyway, at least since the 8/30 wave entered the picture. Before yesterday or so, models were more bullish on the 8/30 wave and often showed this wave not developing at times. It wasn't until the more recent runs that some models showed both waves or only the leading wave becoming a TC more consistently.

Unless they start to show neither waves developing, I wouldn't consider this as "backing off". Current models except CMC still have a general consensus that at least one wave will develop.

[skyline385]

If the models start backing off again then just lol I don’t even know to say anymore

https://twitter.com/andyhazelton/status/1562837106140913665?s=21&t=oWB7d1lJtq3UT7m2UDCB_A


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Support for this wave has been on and off anyway, at least since the 8/30 wave entered the picture. Before yesterday or so, models were more bullish on the 8/30 wave and often showed this wave not developing at times. It wasn't until the more recent runs that some models showed both waves or only the leading wave becoming a TC more consistently.

Unless they start to show neither waves developing, I wouldn't consider this as "backing off". Current models except CMC still have a general consensus that at least one wave will develop.

Nah he predicted it currently, atleast for this run




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[Spacecoast]

If the models start backing off again then just lol I don’t even know to say anymore

https://twitter.com/andyhazelton/status/1562837106140913665?s=21&t=oWB7d1lJtq3UT7m2UDCB_A


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Yeah we’re not getting any MDR storm anytime soon…maybe not at all this year. Every single wave has been a false positive, and somehow there’s way too much stability out there. Who would’ve guessed that a season with a 225 ACE prediction from the Euro back in June would go storm-free for nearly two months.

With only 3 NS's, there has only been 3 possible opportunities for "true positives", (if memory serves).
July / August models have correctly predicted lackluster activities ("true negatives").


Now, it seems typical that we need to sort through many false-positives to find the true positives.
These AEW's are becoming more convincing every day..

I would rather deal with false positives than false negatives...

[Kingarabian]

If the models start backing off again then just lol I don’t even know to say anymore

https://twitter.com/andyhazelton/status/1562837106140913665?s=21&t=oWB7d1lJtq3UT7m2UDCB_A


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Yeah we’re not getting any MDR storm anytime soon…maybe not at all this year. Every single wave has been a false positive, and somehow there’s way too much stability out there. Who would’ve guessed that a season with a 225 ACE prediction from the Euro back in June would go storm-free for nearly two months.

lol good luck going an entire season without an MDR storm. Seems the quiet is starting to get to people

Right. Two of the more conservative models in the UKMET and Euro on board for MDR development.

[Teban54]

[SFLcane]

When the gfs develops it alone we doupt it because the euro doesnt do anything with it but then the ecmwf and its ensembles develop it we doupt it also. Lol

[cycloneye]

2 PM TWO:

Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave located between the west coast of Africa and the
Cabo Verde Islands is producing a large area of disorganized showers
and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions could support some slow
development of this system through early next week while it moves
westward across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic at 15 to
20 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

[Hurricaneman]

Honestly this looks like the next candidate to become a tropical cyclone, already looks like a tropical cyclone.

Also looks to be drawing moisture from the area SW

[cycloneye]

ECMWF run ends over me in PR. But I know the drill.

[SFLcane]

This is certainly a wave to watch with ridging across the southeast being portayed by the ecmwf.

[caneseddy]

This is certainly a wave to watch with ridging across the southeast being portayed by the ecmwf.

https://i.postimg.cc/RFJRhQRZ/ecm.png

You definitely do not want to see that ridging pattern with a TC in the location where the Euro run ends especially with the temps in the Bahamas and SW Atlantic. But like we say that’s almost a week away. The takeaway from this is that the GFS at this point in time is all alone in not doing anything with this wave

[SFLcane]

Woah eps come down!.

[skyline385]

Woah eps come down!.

It’s all mostly recurves btw (except for a couple of members), and personally i am not putting much faith into it until something actually forms or we see consistent model support from the others too. The EPS has backtracked and busted way too many times this season already.




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[SFLcane]

Woah eps come down!.

It’s all mostly recurves btw (except for a couple of members), and personally i am not putting much faith into it until something actually forms or we see consistent model support from the others too. The EPS has backtracked and busted way too many times this season already.

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20220825/ef4044b9c06c40bb705a1048d4638dee.jpg


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Don't think this signal busts i personally think the gfs is garbage its been all over the place unlike the euro. They all dont recurve there is a good chunk of members that even enter the northern caribbean here. Certainly in threatening position for florida and the southeast being 7-10 days out who knows. If big if this wave develops i think this wave could be a threat to the northern islands and potentially the southeast.