2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

[NotSparta]

I hate to make comparisons to that season, but isn’t the slow to non-existent westward motion of the tropical waves similar to 2013? Mark Sudduth pointed out how anomalous it was in yesterday’s video, and I think I remember someone here saying how slow the waves were that year.

It's more like 2020 when everything was just a big gyric mess and nothing moved anywhere fast

[Patrick99]

At least according to the Cfv2, we actually may legitimately have a chance at seeing a +ENSO state, perhaps even a chance of El Niño. With that being said, the Atlantic may be quiet? But unlike 2013, we’ve certainly had El Niño years in the Atlantic that produced at least a few major hurricanes

Next year will be even more favorable than this year even if there is an El Nino in my opinion Very early to say if there will be an El Nino or if it will be active though, it'll be too early until next June at the earliest. We all wish we had the answer though I'm sure.

Why would it be more favorable if we had an El Nino? If we recall the vertical instability discussion from a few days ago, it’s been on a constant decline for the past few years after peaking around 2005. The graphic below hasn’t been updated in a few days as they are working to replace the current one but we have trending constantly below the 25th percentile for the period starting 2005. This makes me wonder if this is a possible sign that the +AMO period is finally coming to an end. If that is indeed the case and we enter an El Nino state, then conditions aren’t going to get favorable imo.

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20220824/56817f3c43a0edac844b2ef8b399dc0f.jpg

Doesn't the -AMO relate to cooler SSTs in the tropics, though? Probably a discussion for another day, but what if the AMO in general isn't really much of a thing anymore? Maybe we are entering into a period where this semi-predictable 25-30 year on/off switch with regard to warm/cool Atlantic tropical ocean no longer applies.

[Ntxw]

The Atlantic is entering climo biggest uptick in the race for ACE. No more excuses with climo. Average around this time is about 25 units, currently sitting at 2.8. By early September should be near 40 for normal average. Things can still flip with a couple of long trackers but the longer the delay the set of remaining analogs dwindle to the more quiet seasons.

[aspen]

The Atlantic is entering climo biggest uptick in the race for ACE. No more excuses with climo. Average around this time is about 25 units, currently sitting at 2.8. By early September should be near 40 for normal average. Things can still flip with a couple of long trackers but the longer the delay the set of remaining analogs dwindle to the more quiet seasons.

https://i.imgur.com/fSKaJtW.png

I think 50-80 ACE is now the most we could get. With so much stability in the deep tropics and the track wreck of a monsoon trough likely preventing many (or any) long-trackers, whatever development we end up getting may be west-based with less ACE. I doubt we’ll get that many storms either now; maybe 10-14 tops.

[toad strangler]

The Atlantic is entering climo biggest uptick in the race for ACE. No more excuses with climo. Average around this time is about 25 units, currently sitting at 2.8. By early September should be near 40 for normal average. Things can still flip with a couple of long trackers but the longer the delay the set of remaining analogs dwindle to the more quiet seasons.

https://i.imgur.com/fSKaJtW.png

2022 has been flatlined

[WiscoWx02]

Next year will be even more favorable than this year even if there is an El Nino in my opinion Very early to say if there will be an El Nino or if it will be active though, it'll be too early until next June at the earliest. We all wish we had the answer though I'm sure.

Why would it be more favorable if we had an El Nino? If we recall the vertical instability discussion from a few days ago, it’s been on a constant decline for the past few years after peaking around 2005. The graphic below hasn’t been updated in a few days as they are working to replace the current one but we have trending constantly below the 25th percentile for the period starting 2005. This makes me wonder if this is a possible sign that the +AMO period is finally coming to an end. If that is indeed the case and we enter an El Nino state, then conditions aren’t going to get favorable imo.

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20220824/56817f3c43a0edac844b2ef8b399dc0f.jpg

Doesn't the -AMO relate to cooler SSTs in the tropics, though? Probably a discussion for another day, but what if the AMO in general isn't really much of a thing anymore? Maybe we are entering into a period where this semi-predictable 25-30 year on/off switch with regard to warm/cool Atlantic tropical ocean no longer applies.

I definitely think the +AMO is probably on its last leg to be honest. We have not been in a typical +AMO for years so figure that may be a sign that a transition is coming. It has also been around for almost 30 years as well so times ticking on it anyways. I said next year will be more favorable because this year is just so unfavorable that even if we had an El Nino things would probably be more favorable. Case in point in 2015 we had Danny by now which was a major and Erick was coming up. The Atlantic was more favorable in 2015 during a super El Nino than it is this year with a La Nina...pretty ironic but still.

[CyclonicFury]

Why would it be more favorable if we had an El Nino? If we recall the vertical instability discussion from a few days ago, it’s been on a constant decline for the past few years after peaking around 2005. The graphic below hasn’t been updated in a few days as they are working to replace the current one but we have trending constantly below the 25th percentile for the period starting 2005. This makes me wonder if this is a possible sign that the +AMO period is finally coming to an end. If that is indeed the case and we enter an El Nino state, then conditions aren’t going to get favorable imo.

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20220824/56817f3c43a0edac844b2ef8b399dc0f.jpg

Doesn't the -AMO relate to cooler SSTs in the tropics, though? Probably a discussion for another day, but what if the AMO in general isn't really much of a thing anymore? Maybe we are entering into a period where this semi-predictable 25-30 year on/off switch with regard to warm/cool Atlantic tropical ocean no longer applies.

I definitely think the +AMO is probably on its last leg to be honest. We have not been in a typical +AMO for years so figure that may be a sign that a transition is coming. It has also been around for almost 30 years as well so times ticking on it anyways. I said next year will be more favorable because this year is just so unfavorable that even if we had an El Nino things would probably be more favorable. Case in point in 2015 we had Danny by now which was a major and Erick was coming up. The Atlantic was more favorable in 2015 during a super El Nino than it is this year with a La Nina...pretty ironic but still.

2015 was a super El Niño year with record wind shear in the Caribbean. Even though this season is currently behind 2015, I think it could catch up rather quickly if the uptick on the EPS verifies. I still think a backloaded season is more likely than a historically quiet one.

[Ntxw]

The Atlantic is entering climo biggest uptick in the race for ACE. No more excuses with climo. Average around this time is about 25 units, currently sitting at 2.8. By early September should be near 40 for normal average. Things can still flip with a couple of long trackers but the longer the delay the set of remaining analogs dwindle to the more quiet seasons.

https://i.imgur.com/fSKaJtW.png

2022 has been flatlined

There are still some late bloomer analogs like 1961, 1988, 1999 etc but the pool is growing small, once you knock out past those then you're in some anomalous analogs.

[psyclone]

Weather is fun because it's a mystery...No matter what happens going forward..one certainty is that prime peak season days are slipping past the goalie. This gives the biggest pass to areas where it is currently prime strike season like the western gulf. For areas that have a later peak season like the Florida peninsula the tranquility of today provides less of a pass but still provides some relief. I'd be leery of projecting a super quiet or "bust" of a season yet. Whether on the upside or the downside...straying too far from climo tends to blow up. And speaking of blowing up...the seasonal forecasting geek squad is going to take a tremendous hit if this slow season continues after all the preseason hype.

[MarioProtVI]

 https://twitter.com/stormyday200/status/1562831028666118146



Someone pointed this out. Most likely the major reason why 2022 is being so quiet. Thinking CSU forecasting takes a major hit (worse then it did in 2013) if this continues.

[WiscoWx02]

https://twitter.com/stormyday200/status/1562831028666118146?s=21&t=30jB9Y2fv8Btod4fG1ZuXw
Someone pointed this out. Most likely the major reason why 2022 is being so quiet. Thinking CSU forecasting takes a major hit (worse then it did in 2013) if this continues.

This is what I have been thinking for a while as well yes...why there is so much extratropical influence in the tropics, there is more heat there so less of an instability gradient than normal. Because of this, the tropics usually send heat northward into the poles but the subtropical and extratropical regions are much warmer than normal so they are able to inject air into the tropics too...which is unusual. Hurricanes exist to send warmth into the extra-tropics, but when the warmth is already there what is the point of hurricanes...thus we are seeing the mid latitudes take the wheel more so...this is probably why instability levels are decreasing, because the mid latitudes are warming. In my personal opinion we are going to start seeing a lot more of this in the coming years.

[Hammy]

https://twitter.com/stormyday200/status/1562831028666118146?s=21&t=30jB9Y2fv8Btod4fG1ZuXw
Someone pointed this out. Most likely the major reason why 2022 is being so quiet. Thinking CSU forecasting takes a major hit (worse then it did in 2013) if this continues.

This is what I have been thinking for a while as well yes...why there is so much extratropical influence in the tropics, there is more heat there so less of an instability gradient than normal. Because of this, the tropics usually send heat northward into the poles but the subtropical and extratropical regions are much warmer than normal so they are able to inject air into the tropics too...which is unusual. Hurricanes exist to send warmth into the extra-tropics, but when the warmth is already there what is the point of hurricanes...thus we are seeing the mid latitudes take the wheel more so...this is probably why instability levels are decreasing, because the mid latitudes are warming. In my personal opinion we are going to start seeing a lot more of this in the coming years.

I really can't take any 2013 comparison seriously because it completely ignores the THC collapse in the spring, leading to the atmosphere remaining in a March-type setup the entire summer--which clearly didn't happen this year.

Any number of active seasons had a 'nearly identical' pattern to that as well, in fact that's why 2013 was forecast to be active in the first place



It's also worth pointing out that something seems broken with the monsoon trough during August--this has been going on since 2018--where it's often too far north and you end up with these excessively broad waves, and any year where you have dry air, that's going to be an amplifying factor as more compact waves further south would more easily evade that before developing.

It really seemed inevitable with this setup that sooner or later we'd see a storm-free or nearly storm-free August.

[SteveM]

https://twitter.com/stormyday200/status/1562831028666118146?s=21&t=30jB9Y2fv8Btod4fG1ZuXw
Someone pointed this out. Most likely the major reason why 2022 is being so quiet. Thinking CSU forecasting takes a major hit (worse then it did in 2013) if this continues.

Hmmm. Not sure about that twitter account to be honest.

[NotSparta]

https://twitter.com/stormyday200/status/1562831028666118146?s=21&t=30jB9Y2fv8Btod4fG1ZuXw
Someone pointed this out. Most likely the major reason why 2022 is being so quiet. Thinking CSU forecasting takes a major hit (worse then it did in 2013) if this continues.

Hmmm. Not sure about that twitter account to be honest.

Yeah, I'm pretty sure it's a troll or something like that

[Hammy]

 https://twitter.com/DerekOrtt/status/1562708965342883841




Seems the East Pacific is still inhibiting the western basin

[Hurricaneman]

https://twitter.com/DerekOrtt/status/1562708965342883841

Seems the East Pacific is still inhibiting the western basin

It’s Possible that is causing El Niño like conditions in the tropical Atlantic but could change quick

[Steve]

Hey Wisco, I don’t necessarily disagree with your point about the pattern itself taking care of the heat and moisture distribution without needing anything extreme. We are still getting rain in New Orleans and highs in the 80’s which we have had all month except 4 days around the 11th when I think it still rained a couple of those days. The whole southeast is in MJO Phase 2 conditions with respect to temperature and precipitation. 99L was part of it and might end up being classified as a TD or whatever post season, but it wasn’t extreme assuming because it didn’t need to be.

[Iceresistance]

Quality is more dangerous and crazier than quantity because less storms to compete with each other.

 https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/1562947432035790850

[WiscoWx02]

Hey Wisco, I don’t necessarily disagree with your point about the pattern itself taking care of the heat and moisture distribution without needing anything extreme. We are still getting rain in New Orleans and highs in the 80’s which we have had all month except 4 days around the 11th when I think it still rained a couple of those days. The whole southeast is in MJO Phase 2 conditions with respect to temperature and precipitation. 99L was part of it and might end up being classified as a TD or whatever post season, but it wasn’t extreme assuming because it didn’t need to be.

I see what you mean completely, now that I think about, hurricanes not being needed isn't the right saying. It's more of a there is less unequal distribution of heat in the northern hemisphere because of warm subtropics and extra-tropics which makes it more difficult for the deep tropics to muster enough energy to get hurricanes going. Storms will always happen for sure, especially in regions like New Orleans, and I think hurricanes will still certainly happen but will become more west based because of the Hadley cell expansion thanks to the warm subtropics as Andy Hazelton pointed out I do believe. We will still see hurricanes, but the tropical activity in the MDR, I think this may be an indication that we won't see as much thanks to our ever changing climate and it's something to keep in mind going forward. Thanks for the feedback!!!

[Spacecoast]

Weeklies: