2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

[Hammy]

Quality is more dangerous and crazier than quantity because less storms to compete with each other.

https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/1562947432035790850?ref_src=twsrc%255Egoogle%257Ctwcamp%255Eserp%257Ctwgr%5Etweet

Euro seems to be forecasting a more typical normal-to-above-normal season (several people have mentioned this being normal for third year Ninas) and honestly this seems reasonable.

[Kingarabian]

https://twitter.com/DerekOrtt/status/1562708965342883841

Seems the East Pacific is still inhibiting the western basin

All Nino regions are near or at moderate Nina levels. Need Nino 2 and Nino 1+2 to be positive to affect the Atlantic.

Another function of ENSO called the PDO could be playing a role here in allowing for rising motion to focus over the EPAC, which by default means sinking motion and enhanced 200mb westerlies over the Caribbean.

[tolakram]

I'm still comfortable with my 135 ACE prediction AND 4 majors. The hard core amateur analysis plus rando tweet linking is fun, but not exactly scientific. Most of it, IMO, is just weird anger that there's nothing to track yet. This is especially true of the posts saying CSU is going to be hurt if the season busts badly. That is BS, anyone with any real interest in science knows full well you have to fail to really learn.

[toad strangler]

I'm still comfortable with my 135 ACE prediction AND 4 majors. The hard core amateur analysis plus rando tweet linking is fun, but not exactly scientific. Most of it, IMO, is just weird anger that there's nothing to track yet. This is especially true of the posts saying CSU is going to be hurt if the season busts badly. That is BS, anyone with any real interest in science knows full well you have to fail to really learn.

BRAVO ...AND ... it's still only 8/26

[WiscoWx02]

I'm still comfortable with my 135 ACE prediction AND 4 majors. The hard core amateur analysis plus rando tweet linking is fun, but not exactly scientific. Most of it, IMO, is just weird anger that there's nothing to track yet. This is especially true of the posts saying CSU is going to be hurt if the season busts badly. That is BS, anyone with any real interest in science knows full well you have to fail to really learn.

BRAVO ...AND ... it's still only 8/26

Same goes for anyone who says their incompetent or aren’t good at what they do. They are pretty accurate 99.9% of the time and even the best are still taught a lesson or two every now and then. I will still trust CSU fully even if their forecast is slightly off this year…their good at what they do as far as I’m concerned and I applaud all of then for what they do. Those behind that forecast are incredible people and we are very privileged to have then as forecasters.

[SoupBone]

I'm still comfortable with my 135 ACE prediction AND 4 majors. The hard core amateur analysis plus rando tweet linking is fun, but not exactly scientific. Most of it, IMO, is just weird anger that there's nothing to track yet. This is especially true of the posts saying CSU is going to be hurt if the season busts badly. That is BS, anyone with any real interest in science knows full well you have to fail to really learn.

I agree with everything else but this bolded section. There's definitely two areas that have people's attention, it's not like there's nothing out there at all.

[skyline385]

I'm still comfortable with my 135 ACE prediction AND 4 majors. The hard core amateur analysis plus rando tweet linking is fun, but not exactly scientific. Most of it, IMO, is just weird anger that there's nothing to track yet. This is especially true of the posts saying CSU is going to be hurt if the season busts badly. That is BS, anyone with any real interest in science knows full well you have to fail to really learn.

BRAVO ...AND ... it's still only 8/26

Same goes for anyone who says their incompetent or aren’t good at what they do. They are pretty accurate 99.9% of the time and even the best are still taught a lesson or two every now and then. I will still trust CSU fully even if their forecast is slightly off this year…their good at what they do as far as I’m concerned and I applaud all of then for what they do. Those behind that forecast are incredible people and we are very privileged to have then as forecasters.

Completely agree, it is unfortunate that we live in an age when some amateur hobbyists (and this isn’t just related to meteorology) think they have enough knowledge to challenge experts who have decades of experience and have given a good portion of their life to the science.

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[CyclonicFury]

Very quiet Augusts in the Atlantic (< 5 ACE) and how September followed, since 1950:

1957: 2 ACE in August, 63 ACE in September
1961: 0 ACE in August, 122 ACE in September
1967: 0 ACE in August, 97 ACE in September
1977: 3 ACE in August, 19 ACE in September
1982: 3 ACE in August, 21 ACE in September
1984: 3 ACE in August, 30 ACE in September
1988: 2 ACE in August, 71 ACE in September
1997: 0 ACE in August, 26 ACE in September
2002: 3 ACE in August, 46 ACE in September
2013: 2 ACE in August, 16 ACE in September
2018: 2 ACE in August, 72 ACE in September

The average ACE for the following September is 53, and the median ACE for the following September is 46. This is slightly lower than the 1991-2020 mean ACE for September, which is ~57, but a very quiet August is not always followed with a quiet September. In fact, some years have been quite the opposite.

[tolakram]

 https://twitter.com/burgwx/status/1563197689931542530

[MHC Tracking]

Very quiet Augusts in the Atlantic (< 5 ACE) and how September followed, since 1950:

1957: 2 ACE in August, 63 ACE in September
1961: 0 ACE in August, 122 ACE in September
1967: 0 ACE in August, 97 ACE in September
1977: 3 ACE in August, 19 ACE in September
1982: 3 ACE in August, 21 ACE in September
1984: 3 ACE in August, 30 ACE in September
1988: 2 ACE in August, 71 ACE in September
1997: 0 ACE in August, 26 ACE in September
2002: 3 ACE in August, 46 ACE in September
2013: 2 ACE in August, 16 ACE in September
2018: 2 ACE in August, 72 ACE in September

The average ACE for the following September is 53, and the median ACE for the following September is 46. This is slightly lower than the 1991-2020 mean ACE for September, which is ~57, but a very quiet August is not always followed with a quiet September. In fact, some years have been quite the opposite.

Leaning towards a 2018/1988 level September.

[Nimbus]

I see the TUTT is back in the models towards the end of the month.
Its a little further east closer to mid Atlantic this time though.
Should be helpful picking up CV systems that form further north but that also puts any low latitude storms that make it to the Windward islands under the Eastern periphery of a High which would steer them into the GOM.

[Hammy]

Very quiet Augusts in the Atlantic (< 5 ACE) and how September followed, since 1950:

1967: 0 ACE in August, 97 ACE in September

In all my comparisons with prior years, this is one I managed to overlook--a year dominated by slow-moving, high latitude monsoonal waves with dry air to the north, and multiple storms moved northwest from Africa.

Arlene's wave on August 25, three days before becoming a depression (on the far eastern edge)


and Beulah's, on August 31 (five days before developing)


and Chloe's wave as it exited


Not to say the season will end up as quiet in terms of total named storms, but a good analog for August/September setup

[Nimbus]

Very quiet Augusts in the Atlantic (< 5 ACE) and how September followed, since 1950:

1967: 0 ACE in August, 97 ACE in September

In all my comparisons with prior years, this is one I managed to overlook--a year dominated by slow-moving, high latitude monsoonal waves with dry air to the north, and multiple storms moved northwest from Africa.

Arlene's wave on August 25, three days before becoming a depression (on the far eastern edge)
https://i.imgur.com/JGrgtYv.png

and Beulah's, on August 31 (five days before developing)
https://i.imgur.com/hzwf15k.png

and Chloe's wave as it exited
https://i.imgur.com/MgNMK3k.png

Not to say the season will end up as quiet in terms of total named storms, but a good analog for August/September setup

Storm2K has a proven track record for forecasting in the 3 to 5 day range, I'm usually a day or 2 late.

The longest statistic I've ever seen was that the city could stay partially flooded for up to 6 months.

https://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=71677&highlight=pontchartrain+scenario

https://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=71835

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1563282334043910144

[LarryWx]

SAL as of 5 PM EDT:



What are the implications going forward?

[NotSparta]

SAL as of 5 PM EDT:

https://i.imgur.com/CBWXGSP.jpg

What are the implications going forward?

SAL thinning in late August seems normal

[Category5Kaiju]

I gotta say, just by looking at the NOAA coral reef watch sst anomalies, this season clearly has a highly favorable sst configuration, at least in the deep tropics. Pretty much every stretch of tropical ocean from the GoM to right off the coast of Senegal and Guinea is solidly above average. I seriously have a feeling that somewhere down the line, this season is going to produce something pretty significant. I simply cannot believe that it'll remain this quiet even going into September; something's gonna give at least from the way I see things.

[Iceresistance]

I gotta say, just by looking at the NOAA coral reef watch sst anomalies, this season clearly has a highly favorable sst configuration, at least in the deep tropics. Pretty much every stretch of tropical ocean from the GoM to right off the coast of Senegal and Guinea is solidly above average. I seriously have a feeling that somewhere down the line, this season is going to produce something pretty significant. I simply cannot believe that it'll remain this quiet even going into September; something's gonna give at least from the way I see things.

I'm also concerned that we may get a backloaded quality vs quantity season, 2020 was quantity vs quality.

And quality year storms are more dangerous than quantity year storms because there are less systems to compete with each other

[skyline385]

I gotta say, just by looking at the NOAA coral reef watch sst anomalies, this season clearly has a highly favorable sst configuration, at least in the deep tropics. Pretty much every stretch of tropical ocean from the GoM to right off the coast of Senegal and Guinea is solidly above average. I seriously have a feeling that somewhere down the line, this season is going to produce something pretty significant. I simply cannot believe that it'll remain this quiet even going into September; something's gonna give at least from the way I see things.

I'm also concerned that we may get a backloaded quality vs quantity season, 2020 was quantity vs quality.

And quality year storms are more dangerous than quantity year storms because there are less systems to compete with each other

People say 2020 was quantity over quality because we had 31 storms and no Cat 5s but forget that it had 5 major canes just in October and November, can’t get more backloaded quality wise than that lol




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[Iceresistance]

I gotta say, just by looking at the NOAA coral reef watch sst anomalies, this season clearly has a highly favorable sst configuration, at least in the deep tropics. Pretty much every stretch of tropical ocean from the GoM to right off the coast of Senegal and Guinea is solidly above average. I seriously have a feeling that somewhere down the line, this season is going to produce something pretty significant. I simply cannot believe that it'll remain this quiet even going into September; something's gonna give at least from the way I see things.

I'm also concerned that we may get a backloaded quality vs quantity season, 2020 was quantity vs quality.

And quality year storms are more dangerous than quantity year storms because there are less systems to compete with each other

People say 2020 was quantity over quality because we had 31 storms and no Cat 5s but forget that it had 5 major canes just in October and November, can’t get more backloaded quality wise than that lol

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20220827/19efe2c0d9b06909d7ba087c1b32d22e.jpg


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I forgot that part

But yes, 2020 was a quantity vs quality situation, then (As you noted) became a backloaded quality. 2022 is likely to take that route for a backloaded quality season, except there were too many inhibiting factors in July and now (August).