Low Pressure in the Central Atlantic (Is Invest 91L)

[sma10]

The run is going to leave us in suspense. I'm sure the 360 hr EPS will help draw some pictures. I will pay particular attention to what the ensemble envelope looks like post-240hr, if the majority members take more of a left turn

[InfernoFlameCat]

Finally, some excitement! It is very robust during DMIN. Like I said, if strong convective activity develops and persists in open warm waters, something is bound to start spinning.

[jlauderdal]

500mb height for those that prefer it.

No ots on that solution, roh roh

[aspen]

Cat 3 heading for the Bahamas at the end of the 12z Euro. If that track were to pan out, we could be looking at a high-ACE major threatening numerous islands and parts of the East Coast. Since the GFS and Euro are currently forecasting two opposite extremes when it comes to the long-range steering patterns, it’s possible this could instead take an Earl ‘10-like track between the two model outputs, assuming it gets north of the islands.

[SouthFLTropics]

Not a very pretty picture, that's for sure, but this will change wildly over the coming week.
https://i.imgur.com/VYAbXGK.png

were would it head if the pattern shown materialized?

Towards my house... Along with a few million other South Floridians. As Tolakram said, it is really early. Things will change. I've always said that the best place to be is ground zero on a 10 day model.

[SFLcane]

[jlauderdal]

982mb above the islands




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Riding the ridge and heading right into a prime area for development

[Iceresistance]

I forgot to put in the gif for the 12z EPS on an earlier post.

EDIT: Wrong time, how did I not notice it?

[Teban54]

I forgot to put in the gif for the 12z EPS on an earlier post.

https://s4.gifyu.com/images/14624209.gif
https://s4.gifyu.com/images/14624209.gif

Isn't that the 0z EPS, not 12z?

[AutoPenalti]

I forgot to put in the gif for the 12z EPS on an earlier post.

https://s4.gifyu.com/images/14624209.gif
https://s4.gifyu.com/images/14624209.gif

This is 0z.

[SouthFLTropics]

We've seen some big storms come out of a setup like this. More times than not luck has been on our side here in South Florida. Floyd in 1999 scared the $%&# out of us before turning. And of course there was Dorian. On the other hand, we have taken hits also. The approach on this is very Frances like.

[Andrewcane86]

were would it head if the pattern shown materialized?

Towards my house... Along with a few million other South Floridians. As Tolakram said, it is really early. Things will change. I've always said that the best place to be is ground zero on a 10 day model.

I'm an insane Floridian that wants to be hit by a cat 4 or 5 so that would make me happy, but like I just said, I've been told I'm nuts lol.

Were you living in South Dade during Andrew in 1992? I was. You don’t want it. I love all-things hurricanes too. But you DON’T want it.


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[Iceresistance]

Isn't that the 0z EPS, not 12z?

This is 0z.

I did not notice that, I did not sleep well last night, I've since fixed it. My bad.

Thanks for noticing it.

[Fancy1001]

We've seen some big storms come out of a setup like this. More times than not luck has been on our side here in South Florida. Floyd in 1999 scared the $%&# out of us before turning. And of course there was Dorian. On the other hand, we have taken hits also. The approach on this is very Frances like.

Francis felt like it lasted forever in central florida.

[skyline385]

Let’s pray the ridge doesn’t build up so that it can recurve out




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[ronjon]

Looks like a 500 mb blocking pattern setting up on Euro in the 8-10 day time frame with ridging dominating SE US extending with a bridge high to Bermuda. Have to watch this one carefully. Some of super long range models like CFS were hinting at this pattern in September which of course wouldn't be good for the CONUS if it pans out.

[SouthFLTropics]

The adrenaline rush of the model watching, waiting, and preparation is what I have found that most people that are enthusiast enjoy. The aftermath of it is another reality altogether. There is nothing fun about no power in 95 degree heat for a few weeks, hurricane deductible to repair your home, replacing damaged items, no fuel to be found, and skyrocketing insurance premiums.

[tolakram]

Stay on topic please.

I will remind everyone that wishing for a storm to hit your area because it's exciting is the quickest way to get booted off the forum. I certainly understand it's more exciting and this storm will go where it goes regardless of what we say, but wishing for destruction and hardships is downright rude, insensitive, and frankly trolling the majority on the forum who watch these for preparation purposes. Please be considerate.

I will also remind folks to REPORT posts rather than helping to generate numerous replies when something bad gets posted. Thanks!

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/ScotPilie_Wx/status/1563213586071429121

[Iceresistance]

 https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/1563234450401816583