Low Pressure in the Central Atlantic (Is Invest 91L)

[skyline385]

Here Papin on the X location

 https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1563235773335293953





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[skyline385]

EPS so far




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[InfernoFlameCat]

I hope we get a Sam out of this. That is what I would love. An Irma? Not so much.

[Sciencerocks]

[skyline385]

Interesting how the EPS spread is so compact when it doesn’t even have a center yet, makes me almost question this run slightly




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[AutoPenalti]

long range EPS shifted south FWIW

[AnnularCane]

Not sure why this is just 30 percent chance and no invest yet.

All models show at least a depression/tropical storm within 5 days and strong ensemble support

NHC gunshy after very slow August?

Possibly, although I'm guessing it's because of 98L and 99L.

[SFLcane]

Buckle up guys...

[SFLcane]

 https://twitter.com/RaleighWx/status/1563241604634542080

[skyline385]

Full 12Z EPS




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[SFLcane]

Full 12Z EPS

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20220826/935fec6a06e3ccd2353efde2980725c5.jpg


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I have noticed lately some discrepancies between weathermodels and weathernerds when it comes to eps. I like this view better you can take a much closer look at all the ensembles. Clearly a threat to the southeast if it sticks.

[gatorcane]

Long way out but indeed somewhat concerning. The GFS recurve north of islands looks suspect to me. Take a look at the CMC 500mb pattern in the 8-10 day range and it more closely matches the ECMWF - not to mention the bogus monster the GFS blows up in the WGOM. Even the GEFS shows higher heights over the Western Atlantic which is more in line with the persistent E to SE wind pattern we have experienced over the summer across South Florida:

[SouthFLTropics]

Long way out but indeed somewhat concerning. The GFS recurve north of islands looks suspect to me. Take a look at the CMC 500mb pattern in the 8-10 day range and it more closely matches the ECMWF - not to mention the bogus monster the GFS blows up in the WGOM. Even the GEFS shows higher heights over the Western Atlantic which is more in line with the persistent E to SE wind pattern we have experienced over the summer across South Florida:

https://i.postimg.cc/0yqh79qN/B83593-B3-E18-B-40-FE-A26-A-C172787-FB0-AF.png

This is exactly correct Gatorcane. I've been saying for most of the Summer that it has been way too dry along the Southeast coast of the state. Normal rainy pattern of afternoon thunderstorms from west to east just has not materialized this Summer. Last time I remember that happening to the extent I've seen it this Summer was in 2004 when we ended up getting Frances. Not saying it is foolproof science because it isn't, but mother nature always seems to make up for herself one way or another.

[SFLcane]

Long way out but indeed somewhat concerning. The GFS recurve north of islands looks suspect to me. Take a look at the CMC 500mb pattern in the 8-10 day range and it more closely matches the ECMWF - not to mention the bogus monster the GFS blows up in the WGOM. Even the GEFS shows higher heights over the Western Atlantic which is more in line with the persistent E to SE wind pattern we have experienced over the summer across South Florida:

https://i.postimg.cc/0yqh79qN/B83593-B3-E18-B-40-FE-A26-A-C172787-FB0-AF.png

GEFS was also weaker at 12z.

[Spacecoast]

long range EPS shifted south FWIW

South of 12z EC Operational as well....


d
(black square is ECMF @ 240 hrs. Ens mean is also very close to that location)

[skyline385]

Full 12Z EPS

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20220826/935fec6a06e3ccd2353efde2980725c5.jpg


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I have noticed lately some discrepancies between weathermodels and weathernerds when it comes to eps. I like this view better you can take a much closer look at all the ensembles. Clearly a threat to the southeast if it sticks.

FWIW you can select SW Atlantic on the model page for similar zoom, i think both are the same




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[sma10]

Buckle up guys...

https://i.postimg.cc/SQC9WK2T/eps.png

Yes, quite a signal. Something to watch, and of course, as always, recurve still on the table

[toad strangler]

Buckle up guys...

https://i.postimg.cc/SQC9WK2T/eps.png

Yes, quite a signal. Something to watch, and of course, as always, recurve still on the table

Just like a tour of the big islands and through the Caribbean. Nothing is off the table at 10 plus days. With ridging like that a Caribbean Cruiser is certainly possible.

[SFLcane]

 https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1563259987287511044

[SFLcane]

Yikes...

 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1563264112280215554