Low Pressure in the Central Atlantic (Is Invest 91L)

[BobHarlem]

Beginning to wonder if the "job submission" issue caused more problems than just a delay.

[tolakram]

18Z takes it south and then over DR so I think it's mostly land interaction.

[BobHarlem]

Well in ultra long range the 18Z GFS does blow it up out in the Atlantic after a recurve right before the Bahamas, stays out to sea, though, avoiding Bermuda to the north. But still it's quite a drop off before then from the 12z.

[SFLcane]

What could happen lol… Hmmm

The euro completely drops tonight I surely won’t be up to find out.

[skyline385]

Latest loop, the other lobe of the trough beginning to have its effect. The solutions will probably change a lot in the next few days until these two sort themselves out

[skyline385]

18Z Euro slightly sloppier

[SFLcane]

Interesting that NHC is holding at 30. Clearly don't trust EPS totally.

[Blown Away]

18Z Euro slightly sloppier

https://i.imgur.com/L7z7BZo.jpg

If this TW remains shallow it will go W likely into GA’s, but if this shallow TW skirts just N it will be an issue for the CONUS.

[skyline385]

18Z Euro slightly sloppier

https://i.imgur.com/L7z7BZo.jpg

If this TW remains shallow it will go W likely into GA’s, but if this shallow TW skirts just N it will be an issue for the CONUS.

Well if the development is only delayed slightly, then it might just prevent a recurve and cause it to crash through SFL which is what some of the southern ensemble members were showing. I dont think there were any members which showed it getting into the Caribbean completely.

[aspen]

Latest loop, the other lobe of the trough beginning to have its effect. The solutions will probably change a lot in the next few days until these two sort themselves out

https://s4.gifyu.com/images/70701097.gif

There’s some really good mid-level spin to that dominant SW lobe, so much so that it can be seen on the IR loop as well as visible/shortwave. It shouldn’t have too much trouble making its way down to the surface one the vort lobes merge.

[AutoPenalti]

Looks like we also may have to wait a little longer for development.

[Keldeo1997]

[SFLcane]

Might even poof tonight choking on some drier air. Can’t see this becoming a tc anytime soon it seems.

[toad strangler]

Might even poof tonight choking on some drier air. Can’t see this becoming a tc anytime soon it seems.

That would be preferable.

[cycloneye]

The theme of this season.

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1563347413955330048

[SFLcane]

https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/716215692617187328/1012906082475180032/unknown.png

Very sloppy! Looks like it’s fizzling maybe the gfs is on to something. Euro probably cave soon

[NXStumpy_Robothing]

I don't understand why we continue to be so reactionary on here with regards to this wave; this interaction between the two lobes was well-forecasted in advance by most modeling solutions and illustrates that we are still 2-3 days away from TCG, again in line with modeling. We're going to need to wait until after these two competing vortmaxes within the larger monsoon trough determine a victor or find a way to combine their vorticity before we can expect there to be a TC. See Isaias's genesis from 2020 for a similar example.

Even now, new convection is firing over the well-defined mid-level spin which is very close to closing off at the surface. I don't see a reason to worry unless it stays anemic through dmax (which looks unlikely). I'd also be very surprised (given the near-universal model consensus for TCG within the next week) for this to not develop at this point.

Just another situation where you have to monitor what's happening with short-term satellite trends and modeling solutions, as is often the case. Going to be an interesting few days with this wave regardless.

[aspen]

Convection is fading right on schedule with the last four GFS runs. If it continues to follow the GFS, then it’ll remain a little anemic looking for a few days as the vortmaxes merge into one, then convection will fire up again as it reaches 45-50W.

[Category5Kaiju]

Yeah the behavior of this wave seems to be following as models anticipated; especially given the heavy model favorability of this thing several days from now, I'm just not sure why it being anemic now necessarily equals to it completely dying and never being seen again.

[skyline385]

I don't understand why we continue to be so reactionary on here with regards to this wave; this interaction between the two lobes was well-forecasted in advance by most modeling solutions and illustrates that we are still 2-3 days away from TCG, again in line with modeling. We're going to need to wait until after these two competing vortmaxes within the larger monsoon trough determine a victor or find a way to combine their vorticity before we can expect there to be a TC. See Isaias's genesis from 2020 for a similar example.

Even now, new convection is firing over the well-defined mid-level spin which is very close to closing off at the surface. I don't see a reason to worry unless it stays anemic through dmax (which looks unlikely). I'd also be very surprised (given the near-universal model consensus for TCG within the next week) for this to not develop at this point.

Just another situation where you have to monitor what's happening with short-term satellite trends and modeling solutions, as is often the case. Going to be an interesting few days with this wave regardless.

Yea its kinda funny seeing how the mood here has changed from today morning

Something to keep in mind though, lots of model runs in 2020 were also pretty bullish about Isaias but it busted big time as the vortmax kept on fighting with each other. I think models are going to fluctuate a lot in the next few days depending on how the trough evolves and we probably will find out soon if anything is going to come out of it.