Small area of low pressure ~650 miles E of Bermuda (Is Invest 92L)
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Small area of low pressure ~650 miles E of Bermuda (Is Invest 92L)
Anyone notice the small area of low pressure that’s well east of Bermuda. It looks like one of those things that can quickly spin up and ASCAT/visible indicate some clear low-level spin…
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Re: Small area of low pressure ~650 miles E of Bermuda
MarioProtVI wrote:Anyone notice the small area of low pressure that’s well east of Bermuda. It looks like one of those things that can quickly spin up and ASCAT/visible indicate some clear low-level spin…
Yeah, had noticed it and mentioned this little spinny vortex to a few fellow tropics watchers last night. Shouldn't have long to live but it's got a very nice vorticity profile, especially around 850 mb. Might be a shortie that steals Danielle away from the Gulf mess, our MDR monsoon trough, and our Caribbean wave.
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Re: Small area of low pressure ~650 miles E of Bermuda
It’s like that system in 2020 that was in late November. It had convection over a small well defined swirl. Was never named or anything though. This one is also incredibly small and weak.
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Re: Small area of low pressure ~650 miles E of Bermuda
12Z UKMET has it:
NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 78 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 78 : 36.4N 55.8W
LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 31.08.2022 84 36.3N 56.0W 1012 22
1200UTC 31.08.2022 96 36.6N 55.5W 1010 26
0000UTC 01.09.2022 108 38.2N 55.6W 1010 25
1200UTC 01.09.2022 120 CEASED TRACKING
NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 78 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 78 : 36.4N 55.8W
LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 31.08.2022 84 36.3N 56.0W 1012 22
1200UTC 31.08.2022 96 36.6N 55.5W 1010 26
0000UTC 01.09.2022 108 38.2N 55.6W 1010 25
1200UTC 01.09.2022 120 CEASED TRACKING
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Re: Small area of low pressure ~650 miles E of Bermuda
This is 20/10 on the 8pm outlook now.
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Re: Small area of low pressure ~650 miles E of Bermuda
Central Atlantic:
Shower activity is showing signs of organization in association
with a small low pressure area located about 600 miles east of
Bermuda. Some slow development of this system could occur during
the next two to three days while the low meanders over the central
Atlantic. After that tine, conditions are expected to become less
favorable for development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent..
Shower activity is showing signs of organization in association
with a small low pressure area located about 600 miles east of
Bermuda. Some slow development of this system could occur during
the next two to three days while the low meanders over the central
Atlantic. After that tine, conditions are expected to become less
favorable for development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent..
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Re: Small area of low pressure ~650 miles E of Bermuda
NXStumpy_Robothing wrote:MarioProtVI wrote:Anyone notice the small area of low pressure that’s well east of Bermuda. It looks like one of those things that can quickly spin up and ASCAT/visible indicate some clear low-level spin…
Yeah, had noticed it and mentioned this little spinny vortex to a few fellow tropics watchers last night. Shouldn't have long to live but it's got a very nice vorticity profile, especially around 850 mb. Might be a shortie that steals Danielle away from the Gulf mess, our MDR monsoon trough, and our Caribbean wave.
If this, the Gulf system and the second MDR wave all develop quickly enough, our Central Atlantic system will get full on Beta'ed and be named Gaston, rather than Danielle.

Very unlikely to happen, but something fun to think about.
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Re: Small area of low pressure ~650 miles E of Bermuda
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Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
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Re: Small area of low pressure ~650 miles E of Bermuda
The fact that there’s this tiny little thing trying to spin up out of nowhere is a strong sign that the Atlantic is waking up and the MJO is in a favorable position. Not sure this’ll get named — other similar areas haven’t — but it might be a sign of what’s to come.
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Re: Small area of low pressure ~650 miles E of Bermuda (Is Invest 92L)
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